Military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko: Monthly truce decides nothing

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Following the scandal between Trump and President Vladimir Zelensky, Europe was offered a variant of conflict resolution. It includes the initial short truce with the subsequent placement of peacekeepers in Ukraine. French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Kir Starmer is offered to set a truce in Ukraine for one month. According to Macron’s plan, the ceasefire will be the first stage, and the deployment of land troops will take place later.

But it should be noted here that both the Ukrainian and the Russian side oppose the freezing of the conflict. So why then Britain and France offer a truce for a month and what will it give? Journalist Briefly about learned in military-political expert Alexander Kovalenko.

Monthly truce is not satisfied with either Ukraine or Russia – What are the chances of implementing the Macron plan?

Military expert Alexander Kovalenko. Photo: elitexpert.ua

– Very, very low. What is the meaning of this plan? So that the Russians do not use “chema” and we are our drones for mutual attacks. But it is unlikely. Because it is important for Russia to keep a high level of terror of the rear part of Ukraine and civilian population. And they will not refuse it, because they now have the constant production of drones-Kamikadze “Shahhed 136”, drones-bastard “Herbera” and “Parodia”, and they can run a day and almost every night in Ukraine 100-200 such combined UAVs.

That is, they came to a fairly large performance of shock drones, and they will not stop. In addition, it must be acknowledged that these strokes have their efficiency compared to the cost of massive missile strokes. The winged rocket is very expensive, and a certain amount of UAVs can easily replace it, and it will be more profitable for the Russians to throw Shahheda Ukraine now, minimizing the use of winged rockets. Therefore, I do not see the prospects that such a plan will work and Russia will go for it.

– And we are profitable for a month or not?

– Now it is not visible in this for any benefit. Vice versa. We lose opportunities. The Russians will accumulate attack potential again in a month, then they will still attack us. And it will be more difficult for our air defense to handle it. In addition, they will restore their oil refineries, which we beat. Therefore, I do not see any really practical benefit that this plan is implemented.

We will hold even without America – Then why did Macron suggest it?

– He is now trying to become a European leader and the United States, while America has failed with its plan of peace. Macron sees this for himself some perspective as a leader. Just as he at one time he suggested to bring peacekeepers to Ukraine. For him, it is an attempt to become a good player at the negotiating table.

– And do you think Europe will be able to replace the United States in the supply of weapons?

– It will not be able to compensate completely, and partly – yes. Their military-industrial complex is not capable of it, they can only give us more by 10-20%.

– Trump can stop the supply of weapons to Ukraine?

– It is quite probable, and there is a threat that it will happen. Republicans in 2023 were already done when they blocked us. But our defense line did not fall, the front was not broken. And now Trump makes the same mistakes. He is already feeling negative from society, because the support of Republicans is reduced from electoral thought. And Trump will cause help to decrease again. But after a while he will be forced to abandon this position, because he will start pressing his own Republicans, because it will be a blow to their electoral rating.

– We say that without the help of the US we will last a maximum of half a year, and then what?

-For half a year, we have been in the 23rd and 24th, when there were many more resources in Russia than it was now in the most active phase of offensive actions. So I think we will last not just half a year, but much longer. It will be difficult, but there will be no apocalypse.

I do not see the prospect of collapse of the front and some great hobbies of the territories. On the contrary, I see that the Russians on the battle line do not show any critical breakthroughs. And the intensity of hostilities can be waves, for some events there, for example, for May holidays.

By the way, if Donald Trump is blocked by assistance to Ukraine, then the Russians can be activated, but it will not last long because they lack the resources for this.

Trump is forced to change his policy – Trump stated that Americans should not worry very much Putin, they say, this is a slight threat to America.

– Well, Americans, maybe it is a small threat, but it is a great threat to the American interests in the world. The same Europe, Taiwan. Because not punished by the thief motivates other thieves to commit crimes. It is about North Korea, and China, by the way, can be more bold in its region. And this is Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia. China considers all these countries as its historical territories, and there are interests and the United States. Therefore, it will be a serious problem for the US interests as a whole, not for the Americans themselves.

– That is, now we can say that Trump has already moved to Russia’s side unambiguously?

– It looks like this outside, but it has not yet yet switched to Russia. He is now trying to lead a rather brazen policy inherent in him, but such a manner of political activity will meet with big problems very quickly. And these problems are already there. Donald Trump will be forced to move to more normal diplomacy and change their positions. Because in this format, no make America Great Again (“Let’s make America big again”) he will not be able to, but just the opposite.

Source: kp.ua