“Photo: FB General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine The date of the inauguration of President Donald Trump – January 20 – seems to be a kind of deadline for Putin, who has already “chopped” a whole bunch of tasks for Russian troops at the front: to occupy as much Ukrainian territory as possible and to knock out the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Kursk Oblast. Military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko spoke briefly about what, from a military point of view, Ukraine is up to […]”, — write: businessua.com.ua
Photo: FB of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
The date of the inauguration of President Donald Trump – January 20 – seems to be a kind of deadline for Putin, who has already “chopped” a whole bunch of tasks for the Russian troops at the front: to occupy as much Ukrainian territory as possible and to knock out the Armed Forces from the Kursk region. Military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko told Briefly aboutwith what, from a military point of view, Ukraine approaches January 20 and what is the current situation at the front.
The Russians did not achieve their goal– With what we approach the inauguration Trump? What is the situation at the front now?
Military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko. Photo: FB Oleksandr Kovalenko
– It is certainly difficult at the front, but the situation cannot be called catastrophic or apocalyptic. What we expected is happening. As of now and before the inauguration of Donald Trump, the Russians have not been able to fulfill their main combat tasks, which were set before them by Putin.
For example, the goal was to occupy Pokrovsk, and it was not accomplished. The Kakhovsky performance remains open, and it is unlikely that they will close it before the inauguration. Toretsk agglomeration – events are happening more quickly there now. But even here, the Russians are unlikely to achieve anything before January 20. In general, the Russian occupying forces were unable to fulfill the tasks they talked about in 2024: capturing the entire Donetsk region and going beyond it.
– Should we wait for the continuation of the offensive on the Dnipropetrovsk region?
– They will go to the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region, but this will not be due to their desire to move and capture, but to cut off our logistics for Pokrovsk. That is, they currently have no goal of occupying the Dnipro. But within the Dnipropetrovsk region, the aggressor will try to expand the control zones, as this is connected with their further advancement in the Donetsk region. The Russians must form flanks, which means that there is no need to relax in Dnipropetrovsk region. On the contrary, it is necessary to continue building fortification defense lines there.
– Conflicting reports are coming from Kursk: sometimes we are advancing, sometimes the Russians are storming. What is happening there now?
– The Russians still have a part of the Kursk region that is not under their control. They were not able to regain control of it by the end of 2024 and, even more so, they will not be able to until the inauguration of Donald Trump. That is, the Russians demonstrate desperate, constant “meat” assaults and offensive actions, but they will not be able to demonstrate any large-scale results.
Kim Jong Un may send a new wave of his soldiers to Ukraine– What should we expect in the south? Is there a threat of forcing the Dnipro and a new capture of Kherson?
– Currently, there is no Russian group in the Kherson region, which had the opportunity to force the Dnipro, expand the bridgehead on the right bank and occupy Kherson. They do not currently have such a resource. Therefore, these will mainly be sabotage attempts to land on the right bank and attempts to capture the Kherson Islands will continue.
– President Zelensky said that 4,000 North Korean soldiers have already been destroyed in the Kursk region. Will Kim Jong-un transfer new units there and how many?
– As much as Putin will ask him. He can send another wave of North Korean troops – about 12,000 soldiers in several activities.
– And what are our problems – lack of people or equipment? What worries you the most?
– We really don’t have enough people, we haven’t reformed the army management system yet. There is also a shortage of equipment, and all technical departments are understaffed. By the way, the Russian occupiers have similar problems. The difference is that in some positions they have a greater resource. Now they will either increase the lump sum payments for the contract or announce a general mobilization.
We need air defense systems, armored vehicles and tanks– President Zelenskyi said that we first of all now need air defense equipment. Why is this so important?
– To cover the cities, as the Russians will continue to terrorize the civilian population through strikes on the rear of Ukraine. Therefore, the issue of air defense continues to be quite acute, especially when it comes to covering important, strategically important objects. This topic will remain relevant not only until the end of the war, but even after.
– Are we currently experiencing shell hunger or not?
– After all, we fire fewer shots than the Russian troops. But the situation is no longer as critical as it was, for example, at the beginning of 2024, when there was a ratio of one our shot to 10-14 Russian ones. In addition, we now use more modern Western and domestically produced artillery. The Russians mostly have old Soviet systems, which are not so accurate and not so long-range. And in terms of accuracy, we are also better than the occupier.
Among the countries of the West, there is indeed a desire to stop the war through agreements with Russia– Don’t you think that our Western partners have already adjusted to negotiations and want to reduce aid to Ukraine. For example, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz blocked the latest German aid package.
– In general, Scholz is already a “downed pilot”. After the Bundestag elections in February, there will be a new chancellor of Germany, and politics may change. But in general, among the countries of the West, there is indeed a desire to stop the war precisely through some kind of agreements with Russia. This is felt in the statements of some politicians, and this opinion is actively spread in the Western information space.
However, along with this, the West also understands that if the war is stopped at this stage and Russia is given the opportunity to not participate in active hostilities for at least a year, then it will accumulate resources for a new attack. And this will be a threat not only to Ukraine, because Putin will not stop, and with such resources he will be capable even of a war with NATO. And this is already the Third World War.
And in a year, Europe will not be able to accumulate resources to oppose Russia, since almost the entire economy of the aggressor country is now transferred to military rails. This is not happening in Europe now, and therefore Russia will have greater potential than European countries.
– After Trump’s inauguration, will the war decline or not?
– On the eve and in the first time after the inauguration of Donald Trump, the activity of hostilities will be at a fairly high level . Because Russia needs to get as many assets as possible (occupied Ukrainian territories) in order to influence Trump’s decisions during peace negotiations. Moscow wants to issue ultimatums on its own terms. Therefore, Russia will try to demonstrate as much as possible what they can do.
But at some point, the intensity of hostilities will still decrease, because Russia’s resources are also decreasing. During 2025, it will abandon the use of equipment and will switch to the format of infantry assaults. This will reduce the pace of offensive actions and the capture of territories, but it will increase the number of their losses, and this will be the main indicator of how exhausted Russia is.
Source: kp.ua