Is 2025 an illusion? According to Ray Dalio, a financial earthquake will happen this year.

“Of course, as a systematic global macroeconomic investor, at the end of 2025 I analyzed the mechanisms of what happened, particularly in the markets. This is the topic of my thoughts today.”

That’s how ultra-wealthy Ray Dalio begins a lengthy op-ed published on X to recap the past year. Strategist from Bridgewater Ray Dalio just dispelled the illusion. For him, the story of 2025 is not the triumph of Wall Street, but rather the story of the demise of the dollar. Taking a step back from the “Great Cycle”, Dalio paints a picture of 2026, where monetary reality will finally catch up with stock market euphoria.

Key points of this article:

• Ray Dalio reveals the dollar’s agony in 2025, predicting a currency confrontation in 2026.
• He decried the hidden devaluation of the dollar, emphasizing the illusion of rising stocks amid rising gold and bitcoin prices.

The Crooked Mirror: Why Your Profits Are Disguised Losses In his analysis, Dalio gives us a real lesson in financial physics: everything depends on the frame of reference. He reminds us with biting irony that “looking at yields through the lens of a weak currency makes it look stronger than it really is.”

In practice, if you were to hold US stocks in 2025, your trading app would proudly display growth of 18% . On paper, you would be celebrating. But beware of the optical illusion!

To understand the reality of your wealth, Ray Dalio reverses his thermometer and uses gold, a “hard” currency that cannot be printed by simple political decree. And here the observation is brutal: because the price of gold has risen so much faster than the price of stocks, your real purchasing power has actually fell by 28% .

“Viewing your investment returns through the lens of a weak currency makes them look more successful than they actually are.”

It’s a bit like getting an 18% pay raise, but at the same time your rent and groceries go up 50%. Sure, you have more cash on hand, but you buy less at the end of the month. In short, the dollar is no longer a reliable unit of measure; it’s like a rubber band stretched so hard it’s about to snap.

Moreover, this phenomenon of “hidden devaluation” is the driving force behind the narrative of bitcoin (BTC) . With BTC above $90,000 at the time of writing, it, like gold, stands out as the main beneficiary of this loss of confidence. Compared to the Swiss franc or gold (+39%), the dollar looks more and more like Monopoly’s monetary token.

Capitalism on a life support system? 3 causes of chaos In addition, for Ray Dalio, 2025 was also a time of great political upheaval based on three inseparable pillars :

First, the Trump administration has made a large, high-impact bet on the power of capitalism. By promoting rampant deregulation and stimulating technological production (especially artificial intelligence), government has shifted from the role of arbiter to that of organizer of the economy . In the crypto ecosystem, this has translated into open support for mining and infrastructure, turning Bitcoin into a matter of national sovereignty. It’s an adventure directed capitalism .

Secondly, this policy was accompanied by aggressive foreign diplomacy, which in the end scared off foreign capital . Threats of sanctions and the use of the dollar as a weapon of war have forced international investors to abandon US debt. As a result, they massively redistributed their funds into gold and, increasingly, into bitcoin, which was perceived as the only “neutral” asset immune to the whims of the state. This represents an indent to one-sidedness .

Ultimately, and this is the most important point, these measures created an unprecedented wealth gap. While the richest 10% (capitalists) saw their stock and cryptocurrency portfolios grow, the remaining 60% literally suffered from real inflation . For them, “affordability” is no longer an economic concept; it is a matter of daily survival. This led to an explosion of social inequality.

In short, these three forces (managed capitalism, fear of foreign investors and glaring inequality) turn the financial crisis into regime crisis . Dalio warns: 2026 will be a year of political awakening.

Indeed, while the richest 10% benefit from technological advances, the remaining 60% perish due to real inflation. When the currency falls, real goods (real estate, food, energy) become unavailable. This social divide is a political powder keg that threatens to plunge the country into internal conflict between the capitalist elite and increasingly vocal movements of “democratic socialism.”

“As a result, these 10% of capitalists no longer see inflation as a problem, while the majority (the poorest 60%) feel oppressed by it. The issue of value for money, also known as the issue of affordability, is likely to be a major political issue next year, contributing to a Republican loss of the House and a very chaotic 2027, leading to a very interesting 2028 election, which is expected to be a major contest between the right and the left.”

Between the AI ​​Bubble and Bitcoin Safe Haven: Where to Hide in 2026? After all, while Dalio has historically focused on physical gold, the parallel with the crypto ecosystem is now inevitable. AI has entered a bubble phase where valuations no longer reflect economic reality, whereas Ethereum (ETH) by price 3191 still looking for his second wind, torn between the desire for minimalism promoted by Vitalik Buterin and the pressure of institutional staking.

Dalio’s assessment of debt is unequivocal: $10 trillion of US debt is due to be refinanced in 2026. Who will finance this debt if the dollar continues to fall? Foreign investors are already reducing their exposure. Right here is the concept “hard money” takes on real meaning. Unlike bonds, which are “paper promises,” Bitcoin is a decentralized asset that does not represent anyone’s debt. In a world of unilateralism, where economic sanctions are common, owning an off-system asset is no longer a luxury.

The question is no longer whether the system will change, but what form your gilded cage will take. Between the uncontrollable inflation of the dollar and the inevitable emergence of highly centralized digital euro the window to secure decentralized assets has never been narrower.