“In the first quarter of next year, the devaluation of the hryvnia may range from 2.5% to 4%.”, — write: www.unian.ua
In the first quarter of next year, the devaluation of the hryvnia may range from 2.5% to 4%.
The banker believes that in the first months of the year the maximum amount of devaluation is unlikely to be higher than 2-2.5% / photo ua.depositphotos.comIn the first quarter of 2025, the exchange rates of the dollar and the euro are unlikely to get out of control, and all the main stages of devaluation of the hryvnia may take place by analogy with 2024: after periods of its acceleration, we should expect periods of “devaluation lull”.This opinion was expressed by Serhii Mamedov, vice president of the Association of Ukrainian Banks, chairman of the board of Globus Bank.
According to the banker’s forecast, in the first months of the year, the maximum amount of devaluation is unlikely to be higher than 2-2.5% per month, but this is possible only in certain stages related to objective economic reasons.
“There are several versions of what the devaluation of the hryvnia will be in the first 3 months of the year. According to various estimates, it can range from 2.5% to 4%. At the same time, the actual “scope” of the devaluation of the hryvnia will largely depend on the regulator’s strategy in the foreign exchange market,” – noted the expert.
He suggested that in the first quarter, the growth of the dollar, as the main currency, could average 2 percentage points. (about UAH 0.8). That is, according to Mammadov, it will not be considered a catastrophe if the exchange rate is in the corridor of UAH 42-42.8/dollar at the end of March. In his opinion, this exchange rate surge may come to naught in the following months and exchange rate changes will become slower.
Mamedov believes that, following the example of 2024, the regulator can apply a “smoothing” strategy, according to which the rate of growth of currency rates (primarily the US dollar) can be moderate and will become an effective means of curbing inflation.
“The regime of controlled flexibility will operate on the foreign exchange market, which will make exchange rate arrhythmia impossible. The National Bank will make efforts to balance supply and demand, and thus exchange rate fluctuations will be at a satisfactory level,” the banker said.
Exchange rates in Ukraine – the latest newsOn December 24, the NBU set the official exchange rate of the dollar to the hryvnia at the level of UAH 41.99/dollar, i.e. the hryvnia weakened by 11 kopecks. This indicator became the next historical maximum of the dollar in Ukraine.
The dollar exchange rate at “PrivatBank” on December 24 increased by 15 kopecks and is UAH 42.35 per dollar. The exchange rate of the euro increased by 5 kopecks and is UAH 44.35 per euro.
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