Hetmantsev scares again: will social benefits disappear if the IMF does not give money?

New “scarecrows” from Hetmantsev: will the collapse of social security payments happen without IMF money

Photo: glavcom.ua

It seems as if intimidating their citizens is one of the favorite pastimes of representatives of the Ukrainian government. One might think, a full-scale war has been going on in the country for almost four years, the cities are under daily intense shelling, people are without electricity, water and heating for several days – what else can they be protected from? But Danylo Hetmantsev, head of the Finance Committee of the VRU, is very resourceful.

Its the statement that Ukraine risks being left without international funding, which may lead to the termination of social payments in the coming months, immediately spread in the media. She was especially liked by Russian sites, which reprinted the “joyous news” many times.

But is everything really so critical and do we really need IMF funds? In these questions, the columnist Briefly about figured it out together with specialists.

On the verge of collapse? Commenting on the probable disruption of the International Monetary Fund’s loan program, the Chairman of the Finance Committee of the Verkhovna Rada, Danylo Hetmantsev, said on the telethon that “we are on the verge of financial collapse.”

According to him, if the conditions of the program are not observed, there will be no tranche. And all the consequences of this will fall on the shoulders of ordinary people.

By “consequences”, Hetmantsev means the freezing of social benefits. By the way, the head of the financial committee has been persistently warning about this for the second month in a row. And he continues to say that the IMF requires Ukraine to make specific decisions and adopt laws (structural beacons), without which the tranches will not be provided.

However, we have repeatedly written: the International Monetary Fund does not make any demands. The only thing that interests the IMF is the timely return of debts. And how exactly the state plans to ensure this is its problem.

Experts constantly explain: the mythical “demands of the IMF” are nothing more than the “wishes” of our native government hidden under them. The Ukrainian authorities have long been accustomed to passing high-profile laws, increasing tariffs and taxes, raising the retirement age, and so on, allegedly under the guise of the demands of an insatiable fund. This is very convenient, because such an easy explanation can stop any dissatisfaction of citizens.

Therefore, what does the IMF “demand” this time?

The chairman of the financial committee of the Verkhovna Rada, Danylo Hetmantsev, is known for his ingenuity in ways of taking money from the population. Photo: facebook.com/d.getmancev

“The whole thing is in FOPs” As it turns out, the “appetites” are considerable.

First, he speaks analyst Danylo Monin, it is about taxes on the sale of old things. In addition, the lawmakers invented that the tax office will receive data on all transactions, regardless of their size. We wrote about it in detail here.

Second, a tax on parcels from abroad, which, according to the analyst, will make imports about 30% more expensive.

And, of course, VAT for FOP, which Monin calls the “murder” of entrepreneurs. And he says that the main goal of all these innovations is to dig even deeper into the wallets of Ukrainians.

The Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee himself named detinization of the market of excise goods as a priority of the Parliament for 2026. According to Hetmantsev, the volume of uncollected taxes due to shadow schemes in Ukraine amounts to more than a trillion hryvnias, and the key problems of the domestic economy remain smuggling, salaries in envelopes and VAT manipulation due to the fragmentation of large business on the FOP network.

As an example, Hetmantsev repeatedly cited schemes in retail, where several checks are issued at cash registers: one for alcohol on the general system, and the other – through the FOP. According to the chairman of the committee, this gives such enterprises an unfair advantage of 7-20% due to unpaid VAT.

“Endless Game” Experts interviewed Briefly aboutthey say that the IMF will give Ukraine this year at best $2 billion, while we will have to pay off about $2.5 billion in debt (the amount plus interest).

– This is a negative result, in my opinion, such cooperation is not needed at all – Danylo Monin commented.

Now there is no great need for IMF funds, he agreed Oleksandr Okhrymenko, president of the Ukrainian Analytical Center. Money there is small, use is limited.

– There are different views regarding the introduction of taxes for private enterprises, – the economist noted in a conversation with Briefly about. – There is a large part of people who are against, and in order to overcome this lobby, we are told that we will run out of money. A huge amount of money is being laundered today through FOP, and the introduction of VAT can stop it.

– In my opinion, cooperation with the IMF is now purely image-based, Okhrimenko concluded. – The European Union provides much more to Ukraine and without any demands. And in general, most of the IMF’s money goes to repaying old loans from the same IMF. This is a kind of endless game: we take a new loan, pay off the old one. Why and how long will it last? There are no answers.

Simultaneously analyst Andrii Shevchyshyn reminds that the Ukrainian economy is totally dependent on external financing. Therefore, any changes in the amount or timing of receipt of aid can be critical. And now the risk of the IMF loan is being actively discussed in connection with EU aid.

– It is important to say that there is no direct condition for the EU to cooperate with the IMF in order to receive 90 billion euros, – emphasized Shevchyshyn. – However, for allocating funds, the EU usually relies on IMF assessments and Ukraine’s development strategy, which must be agreed with the IMF. That is, although legally there is no direct requirement, in fact, without a new IMF program, receiving money from the European Union in 2026 will be in question or will be limited.

By the way, the expert adds, in the last inflation report, the NBU was as optimistic as possible about reaching all agreements and receiving funds. However, the new program with the IMF remains “suspended”. Deputies are not ready to vote on draft laws previously agreed upon by the government and the foundation.

– By themselves, 8.1 billion dollars under the new IMF program for 4 years are not critical for Ukraine, – summed up Andriy Shevchyshyn. – But consultations and fund audits are an anchor and a magnet for other incomes. It is about the risks of timeliness and sufficient external assistance. At the same time, financial collapse will not happen in any case – we have reserves.