Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Steadies with One Eye on Trump’s First Inflation Report

The Crypto Market is Looking to Regain Poise, With Bitcoin Bouncing Above $ 81,000 AHEAD OF TOMORRROW’S US INFLATION REPORT. Broadly Speaking, The Recovery from Overnight Lows Led By Layer-1 and Layer-2 Coins, with Gaming Tokens Also Rising.

The Rebound Comes Amid Indications of “Peak Fear” on Wall Street, A Dynamic Typically Observed at Market Bottoms.

Interestingly, The Spread Between One- and Six-Month Futures tied to the VIX, Wall Street’s So-Called Fear Gauge volatility in the short-term than six months out. Volmex’s Bitcoin Valativity Index Shows A Similar Inversion, Although That Is More Common in The Crypto Market.

“Is The Worst Behind Us? It’s Impossible to Say,” Noted Ilan Solot, Senior Global Market Strategist at Marex Solutions, in an Email to Coindesk. “However, The Risk-Reward for Entering Long Positions in Us Stocks Is Improving. The Vix Index for Volatility is Now Significantificantly Inverked, Meaning Near-Term. Important Sign of Stress, But It Can Also Indicate Extremes in Sentiment. ”

Meanwhile, Bullish Positioning in the Yen Appears Stretched, Suggesting the Haven Currency’s Rally Mayon Soon Lose Steam, Potentilly Providing Risk to Risk Assets in the Process.

The Truflation Us Inflation Index, Which Offers a Daily, Real-Time Measurement of Inflation Based on Data From Over 30 Sources and 13 Million Price Points, Has Droped to FRIM FRIF over 2%. This Trend Hints at the Progress on Inflation The Federal Reserve is Looking for Before Considering Rate Cuts.

On Wednesday, The Bureau of Labor Statistics Is Expert to Show a Month-Over-Month Increase of 0.3% for February. This would be a notable Deceleration from January’s Concerning 0.5%. A Soft Reading Could Validate Traders’ Expectations for Rapid Rate Cuts Starting in June, Possibly Leading to Renewed Risk-on Sentiment. However, It’s Important to Note that Chairman Jerome Powell Has Indicated the Fed Is Waiting for Clarity on President Trump’s Policies Before Making Its Next Move.

On the Other Hand, A Hotter-Tan-Expectioned CPI Print Could Derail Recovery Prospects, Potentilly Setting The Stage for A Deper Slide in Bitcoin and The Broader Crypto Market. Some Analysts Even Predict Bitcoin Could Drop to $ 74,000.

“A Bearish Pattern Perses on the Daily Timeframs, Indicating A Strengthaning Sell-Off After Failing to Hold Above the 200-Day Moving AVERAGE. The Scenario Probable, “SAID ALEX KUPTSIKEVich, Senior Market Analyst at Fxpro, In An Email To Coindesk. Stay Alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto:
  • March 11, 9:00 am: Horizen (Zen) Mainnet Network Upgrade to Version Zen 5.0.6 At Block Height 1,730,680.
  • March 11, 10:00 AM: US House Financial Services Committe Hearing About A Federal Framework for Stablecoins and A CBDC. LIVESTREAM LINK.
  • March 11: The Bitcoin Policy Institute and Senator cynthia lummis co-host the invitation-only one-day “Bitcoin for America” ​​Event in Washington.
  • March 12: Hemi (Hemi), An L2 Blockchain That Operates On Both Bitcoin and Ethereum, HAS ITS Mainnet Launch.
  • March 15: Athene Network (ATH) Mainnet Launch.
  • March 15: Reploy Will Close Its V1 Rai Staking Program to New Users As It Transitions to a Fully Automated Revenue-Sharing Protocol.
  • March 17.: CME GROUP LAUNCHES SOLANA (SOL) FUTures.
  • March 18: Zano (Zano) Hard Fork Network Upgrade Wich Activates “Eth Signature Support for Off-Chain Signing and Asset Operations.”
  • March 20: Pascal Hard Fork Network Upgrade Goes Live on the BNB Smart Chain (BSC) Mainnet.
• Macro
  • March 11, 8:00 am: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) Release January Industrial Production Data.
    • Industrial Production Mom Est. 0.4% Vs. Prev. -0.3%
    • Industrial Production Yoy Est. 2.2% Vs. Prev. 1.6%
  • March 11, 10:00 AM: The US Department of Labor Releases January’s Jolts Report (Job Openings, Hires, and Separations).
    • Job Openings Est. 7.75m Vs. Prev. 7.6m
    • Job quits prev. 3.197m
  • March 12, 4:45 AM: European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde Gives A Speech at the 25th “ECB and ITS WATCHERS” CONFERENCE IN FRANKFURT.
  • March 12, 8:00 am: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) Release February Consumer Price Inflation Data.
    • Inflation Rate Mom Est. 1.3% Vs. Prev. 0.16%
    • Inflation Rate Yoy Est. 5% vs. Prev. 4.56%
  • March 12, 8:30 AM: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Releases February Consumer Price Inflation Data.
    • Core Inflation Rate Mom Est. 0.3% Vs. Prev. 0.4%
    • Core Inflation Rate Yoy Est. 3.2% Vs. Prev. 3.3%
    • Inflation Rate Mom Est. 0.3% Vs. Prev. 0.5%
    • Inflation Rate Yoy Est. 2.9% Vs. Prev. 3%
  • March 12, 9:45 AM: The Bank of Canada Announces Ittest Rate Decision Followed by a Press Conference (LIVESTREAM LINK) 45 MINUTES LATER.
    • Policy Interest Rate Est. 2.75% Vs. Prev. 3%
  • March 12, 12:00 PM: Russia’s Federal State Statistics Service Release February Consumer Price Inflation Data.
    • Inflation Rate Mom Est. 0.8% Vs. Prev. 1.2%
    • Inflation Rate Yoy Est. 10.1% Vs. Prev. 9.9%
• Earnings (Estimates Based On Factor Data)
  • March 17 (TBC): Bit Digital (BTBT), $ -0.05
  • March 18 (TBC): Terawulf (Wulf), $ -0.04
  • March 24 (TBC): Galaxy Digital Holdings (TSE: GLXY), C $ 0.39

TKEN EVENTS

• Governance Votes & Calls
  • GMX Dao Is Voting on the Decentralization and Automation of the Fee Distribution Process for the GMX EcoSystem to Enseure “Real-Time, Trustless, and Verifiable FEE ALLOCATIONS.”
  • Frax Dao Is Discussing Upgrading the Protocol by Renaming FXs to Frax, Making It The Gas Token on Fractal, Implementing The Frax North Star Hard Fork, an introducea Emissions and Other Enhancements.
  • Uniswap Dao Is Discussing Continuing Treasury Delegation to MainTain Governance Stability and Retain Active Delegates, Including A Renewed Framework and Structure Expiration and Allocation Machian.
  • March 13, 10 AM: Mantra to Host A Community Connect Call with Its CEO and CO-FOUNDER to Discusses Various Major Updates.
• Unlocks
  • March 12: Aptos (Apt) to Unlock 1.93% of Circulating Supple Worth $ 63.33 Million.
  • March 15: Sei (SEI) TO UNLOCK 1.19% OF ITS Circulating Supple Worth $ 10.65 Million.
  • March 16: Arbitrum (Arb) to Unlock 2.1% Of ITS Circulating Supple Worth $ 30.76 Million.
  • March 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to Unlock 4.66% Of ITS Circulating Supple Worth $ 80 Million.
  • March 21: Immutable (IMX) to Unlock 1.39% of Circulating Supple Worth $ 12.29 Million.
• Token Listings
  • March 11: Bybit to Delist Bancor (Bnt), Paxos Gold (Paxg), and Threshold.
  • March 11: Cookie Dao (Cookie) to Be Listed on Coinbase.
  • March 11: Pancakeswap is retiring it Crypto Options Product.
  • March 11: Mystery (mery) was listed on the crypto.com App.
  • March 31: Binance to Delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, AND PAXG.

Conferences

• Coindesk’s Consensus is Taking Place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use Code Daybook and SAVE 15% ON PASSES.
• Day 2 of 2: Moneylive Summit (London)
• Day 2 of 3: AIBC africa (CAPE TOWN)
• Day 1 of 2: Vaneck Southern California Blockchain Conference 2025 (Los Angeles)
• March 13-14: Web3 Amsterdam ’25
• March 16, 6:00 PM: Solana Ai Summit (San Jose, Calif.)
• March 18-20: Digital Asset Summit 2025 (New York)
• March 18-20: Fintech American Miami 2025
• March 19-20: Next Block Expo (Warsaw)
• March 24-26: Merge Buenos Aires
• March 25-26: Pay360 2025 (London)
• March 25-27: Mining Disrupt (Fort Lauderdale, Fla.)
• March 26: Crypto Assets Conference (Frankfurt)
• March 26: DC Blockchain Summit 2025 (Washington)
• March 26-28: Real World Crypto Symposium 2025 (Sofia, Bulgaria)
• March 27: Building Blocks (Tel AVIV)
• March 27: Digital Euro Conference 2025 (Frankfurt)
• March 27: Wiki Finance Expo Hong Kong 2025
• March 27-28: Money Motion 2025 (Zagreb, Croatia)
• March 28: Solana Apex (Cape Town)

Token TalkBy shaurya malwa

• Grok Coin, A token Inspired by, But Not Official Affilited with, Xai’s Grok AI, Was Launched on Base Using Mechanisms from Bankr and Clanker.
• The Token’s Ai-Controlled Wallet Reportedly Amassed Over $ 200k in Fees in The Hours After Going Live.
• IT WAS FURTHER AMPLIFIED BY the Official Base Account on X, WHICH POSTED, “ICYMI, @Grok Launched a Token on Base Markets, and Generation Revenue. ” This Gave the Impression of An Endorsment from Base’s Leadership.
• The Post Prompted Base Developers Like Kawz, The Founder of Time.Fun, to Express Freustration Over of the Lack of Recognition for Their Own Projects.
• Calling The Grokcoin Post Unfair and Selective, Kawz Noted Sweet MONHS Building An App On Base with A Single Tweet From @base.

Derivatives Positioning

• ETH CME FUTures Basis Has Droped to and Annualized 5%, The Lowest Since July.
• BTC’s Basis Has Stabilized Between 5% and 10% in A Positive Sign for the Market.
• BTC Options Show A Similar Expert Pattern to Gold, While Eth and Other Cryptocurrencies Are Similar to the Expection Patterns of Equities Investors, Data Tramp.
• BTC and ETH Risk Reversals Show Bias for Protective Puts Out to the May End Expiry.
• The $ 100k Strike Call is Now the MOST POPULAR BTC Option on Deribit, as Opped to the $ 120k Call A Few Weeks Ago.

Market Movements:

• BTC IS UP 2.87% FROM 4 PM ET MONDAY AT $ 81,425.03 (24hrs: -0.93%)
• ETH IS UP 2.84% AT $ 1.917.00 (24hrs: -8.65%)
• Coindesk 20 IS UP 3.05% AT 2.531.70 (24hrs: -3.66%)
• Ether Cesr Composite Staking Rate Is Up 10 BPS at 3.11%
• BTC FUNDING RATE IS AT 0.0001% (0.1% Annualized) on Binance

• DXY IS DOWN 0.38% AT 103.44
• GOLD IS UP 0.66% AT $ 2,911.70/OZ
• Silver is up 1.12% AT $ 32.49/Oz
• Nikkei 225 Closed -0.64% AT 36,793.11
• HANG SENG CLOSED UNCHANGED AT 23,782.14
• Ftse is down 0.25% AT 8,578.37
• Euro Stoxx 50 IS Up 0.48% AT 5.413.02
• DJIA CLOSED ON MONDAY -2.08% AT 41,911.71
• S&P 500 CLOSED -2.7% AT 5.614.56
• NASDAQ CLOSED -4% AT 17,468.32
• S&P/Tsx Composite Index Closed -1.53% AT 24,380.71
• S&P 40 Latin America Closed -2.73% AT 2.297.38
• US 10-YEAR Treasury Rate is Down 4 BPS at 4.21%
• E-mini S&P 500 Futures Are Down 0.28% AT 5636.50
• E-mini NASDAQ-100 Futures Are Down 0.41% AT 19533.25
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Futures Are Down 0.21% AT 42,036.00

Bitco In Stats:

• BTC Dominance: 61.95 (-0.24%)
• Ethereum to Bitcoin Ratio: 0.02354 (-0.80%)
• Hashrate (Seven-Day Moving AVERAGE): 814 eh/s
• HashPrice (Spot): $ 45.2
• Total Fees: 5.3 BTC / $ 429,994
• CME FUTures Open Interest: 141,395 BTC
• BTC PRICED IN GOLD: 28.2 OZ
• BTC VS Gold Market Cap: 8.01%

Technical AnalysisBtcusd’s Daily Chart. (TradingView/Coindesk)

• Bitcoin’s Rsi Has Carved Out A Higher Low, Hinting at A Bullish Divergence, or Positive Shift in Momentum.
• Traders Who Rely on Charts May Feel Tempted to Try Out Longs As Prices Are Close to the Key Support of the March 2024 High of $ 73.757, Offering An Attractive Risk-Reward.
• That, in Turn, Might See The Recovery Gather Pace.

Crypto equities

• Strategy (Mstr): Closed On Monday at $ 239.27 (-16.68%), Up 4.57% AT $ 250.20 In Pre-Market
• Coinbase Global (Coin): CLOSED AT $ 179.23 (-17.58%), Up 4.09% AT $ 186.55
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): CLOSED AT C $ 17.46 (-7.32%)
• Mara Holdings (Mara): CLOSED AT $ 13.41 (-16.29%), UP 1.34% AT $ 13.59
• Riot Platforms (Riot): CLOSED AT $ 7.56 (-9.68%), UP 2.51% AT $ 7.75
• Core Scientific (Corz): CLOSED AT $ 8.01 (+2.96%), Up 3.62% AT $ 8.30
• Cleanspark (CLSK): CLOSED AT $ 7.98 (-9.63%), UP 1.5% AT $ 8.10
• Coinshares Valkyrie Bitcoin Mines Etf (WGMI): Closed AT $ 14.48 (-11.27%), Up 3.04% AT $ 14.92
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): CLOSED AT $ 32.74 (-11.97%), Unchanged In Pre-Market
• Exodus Movement (Exod): Closed At $ 24.60 (-16.33%), Down 5.65% AT $ 23.21

ETF FlowsSPOT BTC ETFS:

• Daily Net Flow: -$ 278.4 Million
• Cumulative Net Flows: $ 35.93 Billion
• Total BTC Holdings ~ 1,122 Million.

Spot eth etfs

• Daily Net Flow: -$ 34 Million
• Cumulative Net Flows: $ 2.69 Billion
• Total Eth Holdings ~ 3.579 Million.

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight FlowsChart of the dayUS-Japan 10-YEAR BOND YIELD DIFFERENTIAL. (TradingView/Coindesk)

• The Chart Shows of Spread Between Yields on the 10-YEAR US AND JAPANESE GOVERNMENT BONDS.
• The Gap Has Narrowed Sharply, Diving Below a Five-Year-Long Uptrend Line.
• The Narrowing of the Yield Spread Favors Strength in the Yen, Seen As and Anti-Risk, Haven Currency.

While You Were Sleeping

• Global Markets Steady After Slowdown Fears Hit Wall Street (Financial Times) Infrastructure Shares Continued to Gain on Expectations of Increated Government Spending.
• Bitcoin and Nasdaq Coulda Stabilize as Bull Positioning in Yen Appears Stretched (Coindesk): OversRestred Bullish Bets on the Yen Cold Trigger A Reversal, Offering Relands. Broader Uptrend Remains Supported by a Narrowing US-Japan Bond Yield Gap.
• Latest Draft of US Stablecoin Bill Aims to Split Power Between State and Federal Authoritities (Coindesk) Supervision if they Meet Certain Criteria.
• DORMANT Ether Whale Moves $ 13m in Eth to Kraken (Coindesk): A Wallet That Held Ether Since the Cryptocurrency’s Inception Moved 7,000 Eth to Kraken After Five Months. Level Since October 2023.
• CITI DOWNGRADES US STESS, RAISS CHINA as America FIRST FADES (Bloomberg): Citigroup DownGraded US Equities to Neutral, Citing Expectations For “More Negativ US DATA PRIRITS Overweight Due to Attractive Valuations and Government Support for The Tech Sector.
• Ukraine Hits Moscow with Largest Drone Attack Hours Before Talks (The Wall Street Journal): Ahead of a High-Letvel US-UKRAINE MEETING IN SAUDI ARABIA Capital, Escalating Tensions As Discussions on Potential Peace Efforts Loom.

In the Ether