Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Set for Worst Q1 Since 2020 As Trump Approaches 100 Days

With Just Over a Week to Go Until the End of March, The First Quarter Has Been Disappinting, Particularly in Terms of Price Action Racter than Narrative for the Crypto Industry.

Bitcoin (BTC) HAS DROPED 10%, ITS WORST FIRST-QUARTER PERFORANCE SINCE 2020, and ETHER (ETH) HAS POSTED ITS WEAKEST FIRST QUARST QUARTER SINCE INCOPTION. SO FAR, BITCOIN HAS BEEN RELATIVELY STEADY IN MARCH.

Markets Remain in the Latter Stages of President Donald Trump’s First 100 Days in Office, A Period Historical Marked by Uncertainty and Volatcy. This is expert to personsist at least through the end of april.

As Quarter-End Approaches, Negative Liquidity and Position Management Could Lead to Increated Volatility and Wipsaw Price Action, Accounting To The London Crypto Club, Founders.

Despite Short-Term Weakness, The Pair Maintena A Bullish Outlook Heading Into The Second Quarter. A SLIGHTLY MORE DOVISH TONE FROM The Federal Reserve at Its March Meeting – EVEN WITHOUT ACTUAL RATE CUTS – Combined with A Weakening Us Dollar But not collapsing, are all factors they say Will Support A Strong Three Months.

Bitcoin Began to Sell Off on Thursday Following Trump’s Lack of a Concrete Update on a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve or A Tax-Free Crypto Capital Gains.

“Market Participants Were Hoping for a Tax-Free Capital Gains Framework or A Bitcoin National Reserve Accuumulation Plan,“ Noted Blockhead Research Network (BRN). “Institute, Trump Reiterated His General Support for the Crypto Industry, Highlighting The ROLE OF STABLECOins in Maintening the Us Dollar’s Dominance in Global Trade. While Support. Policy Commitments Is a Short-Term Bearish Signal. ”

BRN SEES DIGITAL Assets Struggling to Sustain Breakouts, with Accumulation Continuing at Lower Levels, Particularly for Altcoins.

“Despite Near-Term Weakness, We Recommend Staying Heavily Investled, As The Market Could React Swiftly to The Next Positive Development. Email. Stay Alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto:
  • March 21, 1:00 PM: The Sec’s Crypto Task Force Hosts a Roundtable, Open to the Public, that Will Focus on the Definition of A Security.
  • March 24 (Before Market Open): Bitcoin Miner Cleanspark (CLSK) Will Join The S&P SmallCap 600 Index.
  • March 24, 11:00 am: Bugis Network Upgrade Goes Live on Enjin Matrixchain Mainnet.
  • March 25: The Mimir Upgrade Goes Live on the Chromia (CHR) Mainnet.
  • March 26, 3:37 AM: Ethereum’s Hoodi Testnet Will Activate the Pascal Hard Fork Network Upgrade at Epoch 2048.
• Macro
  • March 23, 8:30 PM: S&P Global Releases (Flash) Japan March Producer Price Index (PPI) DATA.
    • Composite ppi prev. 52
    • Manufacturing PPI Prev. 49
    • Services ppi prev. 53.7
  • March 24, 9:45 AM: S&P Global Releases (Flash) US March Producer Price Index (PPI) DATA.
    • Composite ppi prev. 51.6
    • Manufacturing PPI Prev. 52.7
    • Services ppi prev. 51
• Earnings (Estimates Based On Factor Data)
  • March 27: Kulr Technology Group (Kulr), Post-Market, $ -0.02
  • March 28: Galaxy Digital Holdings (Glxy), Pre-Market, C $ 0.38

TKEN EVENTS

• Governance Votes & Calls
  • Aave Dao Is Discussing The Activation of Aave Umbrella, A System Meant to Replace Aave Safety Module. It would enable users to stake their aave atokens to cover Potential Bad Debt and Earn Rewards for It.
  • Sky Dao is voteing on an Executive Proposal That Wound Include A Number of Key Initiatiats, Including Implementing Multiple Rate Changes, Updating The Smart Burn, ALGINE ENGINE Bug Bounty Payout, Transferring 3 Million USDS for Integration Boost Funding and Triggering A Spark Proxy Spell, Among Other Things.
  • Compound Dao is Discussing the Implementation of Comp Staker, A Staking Mechanism Aimed at Enhancing Governance and Participation from Comp Holders. IT WOURT ALLOW TOKEN HOLDERS TO STAKE AND DELEGATE TOIR VOTES TO EARN A Share of Protocol Revenue.
  • March 21, 11:30 AM: Flare to host an x ​​Spaces session on Flare 2.0.
  • March 25, 1 Am: Crypto.com to Hold an Ask Me Anything (AMA) SESSION WITH ITS CO-FOUNDER AND CEO Kris Marszalek.
• Unlocks
  • March 23: Metars Genesis (MRS) to Unlock 11.87% of ITS Circulating Supple Worth $ 307.8 Million.
  • March 31: Optimism (OP) to Unlock 1.93% of ITS Circulating Supple Worth $ 26.81 Million.
  • April 1: sui (sui) to unlock 2.03% of it circulating Supple worth $ 147.01 Million.
  • April 3: Wormhole (W) to Unlock 47.64% of Its Circulating Suppply Worth $ 114.79 Million.
  • April 7: Kaspa (Kas) to Unlock 0.59% of It Circulating Supple Worth $ 11.81 Million.
• Token Listings
  • March 21: Pancakeswap (Cake) to Be Listed on Hashkey.
  • March 21: Orca (orca) to be listed on upbit.
  • March 31: Binance to Delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, AND PAXG.

Conferences

• Coindesk’s Consensus is Taking Place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use Code Daybook and SAVE 15% ON PASSES.
• March 24-26: Merge Buenos Aires
• March 25-26: Pay360 2025 (London)
• March 25-27: Mining Disrupt (Fort Lauderdale, Fla.)
• March 26: Crypto Assets Conference (Frankfurt)
• March 26: DC Blockchain Summit 2025 (Washington)
• March 26-28: Real World Crypto Symposium 2025 (Sofia, Bulgaria)
• March 27: Building Blocks (Tel AVIV)
• March 27: Digital Euro Conference 2025 (Frankfurt)
• March 27: Wiki Finance Expo Hong Kong 2025
• March 27-28: Money Motion 2025 (Zagreb, Croatia)

Token TalkBy shaurya malwa

• Issuance Platform Pump.Fun Introduced ITS PUMPSWAP Service on Thursday, Allowing Tokens Made on the Platform To Be Traded On The New Service Insthead of Decentralaized Exchanger previoously listed.
• Pump introduced a new fee structure, replacing the 6 Sol Migration fee with a 0.25% Trading fee.
• It Also Has Plans for a Revenue Sharing Model Incentivizes Creaters to Focus on Long-Term Token Growth by Earning Revenue on Everi Trade, Shifting Weay Froma.
• Pump.Fun Metrics Show A Decline in Token Launches and Graduations, with 29,000 Coins Launs Launched on March 8 But Only 264 Graduating and Success Rates – Or The Tokons Litted on.

Derivatives Positioning

• Bitcoin Futures Open Interest Has DECLINED TO 628,000 BTC FROM The Weekly High of Nearly 650,000 BTC Alongside Marginally Positive Perpetual Funding Rates. The Combination Indicates that Btc’s 24-Hour Price Drop Is Largely Characterized by Unwinding of Longs Racher Than New Shorts.
• Open Interest in Eth Futures, Meanwhile, Remains Elegated at Record Highs Above 10 Million Eth in A Sign Traders Are Continuing to Short a Falling Market.
• XRM, BNB, TRX Are Standouts in the Altcoin Market, Boasting A Positive Cumulative Volume Delta Indicator for the Past 24 Hours. IT’s A SIGN OF NET BUYING IN THESE Markets.
• BTC’s Short and Near-Dated Options Have Flipped Bearish, Indicating Renewed Demand for Puts Out to the May End Expiry. Ether puts are pricier than btc.

Market Movements:

• BTC is Down 0.73% from 4 PM et Thursday at $ 83.935.26 (24hrs: -1.43%)
• ETH IS DOWN 1.19% AT $ 1.960.00 (24hrs: -1.18%)
• Coindesk 20 is Down 1.29% AT 2.648.64 (24hrs: -2.08%)
• Ether Cesr Composite Staking Rate is up 5 BPS at 3.06%
• BTC FUNDING RATE IS AT 0.0108% (3.95% Annualized) on Binance

• DXY IS UP 0.16% AT 104.02
• Gold Is Down 0.12% AT $ 3,033.22/OZ
• Silver is Down 1.08% AT $ 33.11/Oz
• Nikkei 225 Closed On Thursday -0.25% AT 37,6777.06
• Hang Seng Closed On Thursday -2.19% AT 23,689.72
• Ftse is down 0.49% at 8,659.67
• Euro Stoxx 50 is Down 0.76% AT 5,410.04
• Djia closed on thursday uncanged at 41,953.32
• S&P 500 CLOSED -0.22% AT 5.662.89
• NASDAQ CLOSED -0.33% AT 17,691.63
• S&P/Tsx Composite Index Closed UnChanged AT 25,060.24
• S&P 40 Latin America Closed -0.96% AT 2.471.90
• US 10-YEAR Treasury Rate is Down 2 BPS at 4.23%
• E-mini S&P 500 Futures Are Down 0.21% AT 5.700.50
• E-mini NASDAQ-100 Futures Are Down 0.25% AT 19,828.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Futures Are Down 0.19 AT 42,204.00

Bitcoin Stats:

• BTC Dominance: 61.52 (0.16%)
• Ethereum to Bitcoin Ratio: 0.02348 (-0.38%)
• Hashrate (Seven-Day Moving AVERAGE): 808 eh/s
• HashPrice (Spot): $ 48.01
• Total Fees: 5.47 BTC / $ 465,938
• CME FUTures Open Interest: 150,645 BTC
• BTC PRICED IN GOLD: 27.4 OZ
• BTC VS Gold Market Cap: 7.79%

Technical AnalysisXRP/Eth’s Daily Chart. (TradingView/Coindesk)

• The XRP/ETH Daily Chart Shows the MacD Histogram, A Momentum Indicator, Has Recently Produced a Lower High, Divering Bearishly From The Continued Rise in the Ratio.
• The Divergence Suggests Xrp May Underform Ether in the Coming Days.

Crypto equities

• Strategy (Mstr): Closed On Thursday at $ 302.07 (-0.71%), Down 0.83% AT $ 299.55 in Pre-Market
• Coinbase Global (Coin): CLOSED AT $ 190.38 (+0.33%), Down 0.76% AT $ 188.93
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): CLOSED AT C $ 18.15 (+2.54%)
• MARA HOLDINGS (MARA): CLOSED AT $ 12.50 (-0.24%), Down 0.56% AT $ 12.43
• Riot Platforms (Riot): CLOSED AT $ 7.76 (-0.26%), Down 0.13% AT $ 7.75
• Core Scientific (Corz): CLOSED AT $ 8.59 (-1.04%), Down 0.93% AT $ 8.51
• Cleanspark (CLSK): CLOSED AT $ 7.75 (-3.25%), Down 0.77% AT $ 7.69
• Coinshares Valkyrie Bitcoin Mines ETF (WGMI): Closed AT $ 14.98 (-1.45%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): CLOSED AT $ 38.82 (-3.05%)
• Exodus Movement (Exod): Closed AT $ 48.51 (+19.04%), Down 0.74% AT $ 48.15

ETF FlowsSPOT BTC ETFS:

• Daily Net Flow: $ 165.7 Million
• Cumulative Net Flows: $ 36.05 Billion
• Total BTC Holdings ~ 1,120 Million.

Spot eth etfs

• Daily Net Flow: -$ 12.5 Million
• Cumulative Net Flows: $ 2.45 Billion
• Total Eth Holdings ~ 3.452 Million.

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight FlowsChart of the dayBTC Options: 24-Hour Change in Open Interest. (Ambrdata/Deribit)

• The Number of Active or Open Positions in the $ 100,000 Strike Call Has Decreated While Open Interest in Lower Strike Calls Between $ 85,000 and $ 90,000 Has Increated AlongSide.
• The Data Shows A CAUTIUS MARKET SENTIMENT.

While You Were Sleeping

• North Korea-Linked Lazarus Group Holds More Bitcoin Than Musk’s Tesla (Coindesk): The Group Begind The $ 1.4 Billion Bybit Ether Theft Held 13.441 Bitcoin, 16% More. Rkham Intelligence.
• Polymarket is 90% accounting in predicting World Events: Research (Coindesk): Polymarket Prescations Reachs Reachs Reachus Bias, Herd Behavior, Low Liquidity and Risk-Seeking Tendencies.
• Australia Proses New Crypto Regulation Structure, Plans to Integrate Digital Assets Into The Economy (Coindesk) Digital Currencies to Help Modernize ITS FINANCAL SYSTEM, accounting to a treasury White Paper.
• Dollar Slump Magnifies Stock Market Pain for Foreign Investors (Financial Times): The S & P 500’s 4% Drop this Year Has Translated Into Overo Overo Overo Over -Users. Over US Economic Growth.
• Japan’s Households Slash Cash at Record Pace as Inflation Bites (Bloomberg): Cash Holdings Fell To 105.3 Trillion Yen ($ 707 Billion) in the Final Quarter of 2024, Marking A 3.4% Drop Since 1998.
• Oil Set for Second Straight Weekly Gain on Iran Sanctions, Planned Opec+ Cuts (Reuters): Brent and WTI Futures Are Set for Their Largest Weekly Rise Since January, Driven by the NEWUSE by Seven Exporters to Curb Supply Through Mid-2026.

In the Ether