Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Owners Hodl As Sunny Second Quarter Nears

The Sun Shone on Crypto Markets Early Wednesday, With Bitcoin Having Another GO at $ 88,000 Amid Growing Chatter About Bullish Seasonality Factors as March

The Last 10 Years of Price Data Tracked by Analyst Miles Deutscher Show April as the Turning Point for the Market, with A 75% CHANCE OF UPSIDE BETWEEN NOW AND YEAR-END. The Pattern Was Noted by QCP Capital as Well, Which Pointed to the Second Quarter, and April in Particular, As Bullish for Crypto.

“The S&P 500 Has Delivered an Average Annualized Return of 19.6% In Q2, While Bitcoin Has Also Recorded ITS Second-Best Median Performance Dringing Theopodch-Again, TRAILING ON On Telegram.

Seasonality Factors Are Not as Reliable As Standalone Indicators, But When Coupled with Other Signs, Such As The Recent Halt in Selling by Long-Term Holders, They Appear Credible.

The So-Called 1Y+HODL Wave Indicator, WHICH TRACKS The PROPORTION OF BITCOIN Addresses (or Wallets) that have the Kept Their btc for at least one year Accorging to Data Source Bitbo Charts. See Chart of The Day, Below, Too.

Reports that Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) Is Drafting Rules to Remove Reputational Risk from Its Bank Supervision Were Labeled “A Big Win For Crypto” “In Practice, This Vague and Subjective Criteria Was Used to Justify the Debanking of Lawful Crypto Businesses Through Operation Chokepoint 2.0,” Sacks Said on X.

Speaking of the Wider Market, Social Media Talk About Stablecoins Has Picked Up, with Observers Pointing To $ 31.8 Billion in Stablecoins Sitting on the Sidelines on Binting on BINDING AS POTENTSE Catalyst. Blackrock’s Decision to Debut A Physical Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Product in Europe with a Reduced Total Expense Ratio of 15 BPS is Seen as Highly Positive As Well, Cosidering. US, Capping Widespread Adopt.

Still, Macroeconomic Uncertainty Has the Potential to Play Spoilsport and Keep Animal Spirits at Bay. WHILE RECENT MEDIA REPORTS Suggest President Donald Trump’s Expecated Reported Reported Reported Reports Reports Reports Reports Reports Reports Reports Reports Reports Reports Reports Reports Reports Sectors that will be targeted.

The Deeper Slide in US Consumer Confidentnce In March and the Death Cross in the USD/JPY PAIR, Indicating A Strengthening of the Yen, A HAVEN CURRENCY, AHEAD, DON’T HELP MATTERS EITHER. So stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto:
  • March 26, 10:37 AM: Ethereum’s Hoodi Testnet Will Actrain The pectra Hard fork Network Upgrade at Epoch 2048.
  • March 27: Walrus (Wal) Mainnet Goes Live.
  • April 1: Metaplanet (3350) 10-Foror-1 Stock Split Becomes Effective.
• Macro
  • March 27, 8:30 AM: The US Bureau of Economic Analysis Releases (Final) Q4 GDP DATA.
    • GDP Growth Rate QOQ EST. 2.3% Vs. Prev. 3.1%
    • Core Pce Prices QOQ EST. 2.7% Vs. Prev. 2.2%
    • PCE PRICES QOQ EST. 2.4% Vs. Prev. 1.5%
    • Real Consumer Spending QOQ EST. 4.2% Vs. Prev. 3.7%
  • March 27, 8:30 AM: The US Department of Labor Releases Unemployment Insurance Data for the Week Ended March 22.
    • Initial Jobless Claims Est. 225k Vs. Prev. 223k
  • March 27, 10:00 AM: The US Senate Banking Committee Will Hold A Hearing on the Nomination of Paul Atkins to the Chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Livesteam Link.
  • March 27, 3:00 PM: Mexico’s Central Bank Announces ITS Interest Rate Decision.
    • Target Rate Est. 9% vs. Prev. 9.5%
  • March 28, 8:00 AM: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) Release February Unemployment Rate Data.
    • UNEMPLYMENT RATE EST. 6.8% Vs. Prev. 6.5%
  • March 28, 8:00 AM: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography Releases February Unemployment Rate Data.
    • UNEMPLYMENT RATE EST. 2.6% Vs. Prev. 2.7%
  • March 28, 8:30 AM: Statistics Canada Releases January Gdp Data.
    • Gdp mom est. 0.3% Vs. Prev. 0.2%
  • March 28, 8:30 AM: The US Bureau of Economic Analysis Releases February Consumer Income and Expenditure Data.
    • Core Pce Price Index Mom Est. 0.3% Vs. Prev. 0.3%
    • Core Pce Price Index Yoy Est. 2.7% Vs. Prev. 2.6%
    • PCE PRICE INDEX MOM EST. 0.3% Vs. Prev. 0.3%
    • PCE PRICE INDEX YOY EST. 2.5% Vs. Prev. 2.5%
    • Personal Income Mom Est. 0.4% Vs. Prev. 0.9%
    • Personal Spending Mom Est. 0.5% Vs. Prev. -0.2%
  • April 2, 12:01 AM: The Trump Administration’s Reciprocal Tariffs Plan Goes Live.
• Earnings (Estimates Based On Factor Data)
  • March 27: Kulr Technology Group (Kulr), Post-Market, $ -0.02
  • March 28: Galaxy Digital Holdings (Glxy), Pre-Market, C $ 0.38

TKEN EVENTS

• Governance Votes & Calls
  • Sky Dao Is Discussing Redirecting the Boost Programs Budget to Promote USDS on Non-Omethereum Networks and Stop Sky Token BuCacks to Insthead Direct.
  • Dydx Dao Is Discussing the Allocation of $ 10 Million to Fund The MOST PROFITABLE Traders on the Platform in A Bid to Attract Talent. The Dao Is Also Voting on Creating A New Liquidity Tier Designed for Markets introducessed through the Instant Market Listers Feature.
  • Venus Dao Is Discussing The Potential Acquisition of A 33% Stake in Thena.fi for $ 4.5 Million to Position Venus to “Build A CompreehenSive Defi SuperApp on the BNB Chain.”
  • Balaner Dao Is Discussing The Establishment of A Balaner Alliance Program, WHICH WOURT SEE The PROTOCOL Share A PORTION OF THE REVENUE IT GENERATES WITH CEY ECOSSYTESSTNERS INTNERS PARTNers.
  • March 26, 8 AM: Kaia Chain to Hold A Community Town Hall to Discusses Its Next Moves and Latest Business and Governance Insights.
  • March 26, 10 AM: Conflux Network to host it Quarterly community call with Founders fan long and yanjie zhang.
  • March 26, 12 PM: Helium Foundation to Hold A Community Call to Discusses The Protocol and Key EcoSystem Updates.
  • March 27, 9 Am: Pancakeswap and EOS Network Foundation to Host An Ask Me Anything (Ama) Session.
  • March 27, 12 PM: Cardano Foundation to Hold A LIVESTREAM CTO Breaking Down The Project’s RoadMap.
• Unlocks
  • March 31: Optimism (OP) to Unlock 1.93% of It Circulating Supple Worth $ 28.88 Million.
  • April 1: sui (sui) to unlock 2.03% of it circulating Supple worth $ 164.34 Million.
  • April 1: Zetachain (Zeta) to Unlock 6.05% Of ITS Circulating Supple Worth $ 14.39 Million.
  • April 2: Ethena (ENA) to Unlock 0.77% of It Circulating Supple Worth $ 17.29 Million.
  • April 3: Wormhole (W) to Unlock 47.64% of Its Circulating Suppply Worth $ 143.5 Million.
  • April 7: Kaspa (Kas) to Unlock 0.59% of It Circulating Suppply Worth $ 11.98 Million.
  • April 9: Movement (Move) to Unlock 2.04% Of ITS Circulating Supple Worth $ 27.29 Million.
• Token Listings
  • March 27: Walrus (Wal) to be listed on gate.io and bybit.
  • March 28: Binance to Delist Aergo (Aergo).
  • March 31: Binance to Delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, AND PAXG.

Conferences

• Coindesk’s Consensus is Taking Place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use Code Daybook and SAVE 15% ON PASSES.
• Day 3 of 3: Merge Buenos Aires
• Day 2 of 2: Pay360 2025 (London)
• Day 2 of 3: Mining Disrupt (Fort Lauderdale, Fla.)
• Day 2 of 4: Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) Annual Conference 2025 (Boao, China)
• March 26: Crypto Assets Conference (Frankfurt)
• March 26: DC Blockchain Summit 2025 (Washington)
• Day 1 of 3: Real World Crypto Symposium 2025 (Sofia, Bulgaria)
• March 27: Building Blocks (Tel AVIV)
• March 27: Digital Euro Conference 2025 (Frankfurt)
• March 27: Web3 Banking Symposium 2.0 (Lugano, Switzerland)
• March 27: Wiki Finance Expo Hong Kong 2025
• March 27-28: Money Motion 2025 (Zagreb, Croatia)

Token TalkBy shaurya malwa

• Pumpswap Has Rapidly Gained New Users and Over $ 1.2 Billion in Trading Volumes Just Days After Going Live and Now Accounts for Nearly 15% of On -Cchain Trading Activity On Solana.
• Pump Fun Introduced Pumpswap Last Week as Its Own DeCentralized Exchange (DEX), AIMING TO STREAMLINE TOKEN Migrations and Trading.
• Pump Fun, A Prominent Solana-BlockChain Platform, Gained Traction for Enabling Rapid Token Creation and Deployment, Often Associated with Memoeins. IT HAS FACILITATED OVER 1.5 Million Token Launches Since Early 2024 Debut, Finding An Audence Looking to Trade MicroCap Tokens on Solanae’s Low-Cost, High-Speed ​​Network.
• Tokens migrated to solana dex raydium after they hit a $ 69,000 Market Capitalization on Pump.Fun. With Pumpswap, The Tokens (and Trading Fees) Never Leave The Broader Pump Ecosystom.
• Abracadabra Money’s Gmcauldrons Suite Suffired a hack on tuesday. Resulting in a $ 13 Million Mim Loss. The REST OF THE ABRACADABRA PROSYSTEM WAS NOT AFFERTED, WITH The DAO OUTLINING A Recovery Plan in “Abracadabra Money: The Path Forward.”
• The Dao Treasury, Holding $ 19 Million in Assets, Has Already Acquired 6.5 Million MIM to REPAY 50% of the Loss, with Plans to Cover The Remaining Amount in the Coming MONTHS, DEMONSTRATING ATAACTING A POPA

Derivatives Positioning

• Shib’s perpetual Futures Open Interest Has Risen by 14%, Outpacing Other Major Cryptocurrencies, While Btc and Eth Open Interest Has Droped by Under 1% in the Past 24 Hurs.
• A meme token receiving more Net Inflows of Other Assets Is Often A Precursor to A Market Correction.
• Perpetual Funding Rates for Most Major Major Tokens, Excluding Trx, BNB and SUI, REMAIN POSITIVE, BUT Below and Annualized 10%, Signifying A Moderated Bullish Positioning.
• Deribit’s BTC and Eth Options Continue to Cast Doubts on the Recent Price Recovery, Sporting A Bullish Call Bias Only After May Expiries.
• Block Flows Featured a BTC Bull Call Spread in the September Expiry Involving $ 90K and $ 125k Strikes. In eth’s Case, Flows Leaned Slightly Bearish with Outright Longs in Put Options at $ 1.9k and $ 2k Strikes.

Market Movements:

• BTC IS UP 0.14% from 4 pm et monday at $ 88,019.03 (24hrs: +1.02%)
• ETH IS DOWN 0.25% AT $ 2,060.34 (24hrs: -0.22%)
• Coindesk 20 IS Up 0.28% AT 2,811.12 (24hrs: +0.96%)
• Ether Cesr Composite Staking Rate is up 4 BPS at 2.95%
• BTC FUNDING RATE IS AT 0.0101% (3.6869% Annualized) On Binance

• DXY IS UNCHANGED AT 104.23
• GOLD IS UNCHANGED AT $ 3,024.80/OZ
• Silver is up 0.5% AT $ 34.17/Oz
• Nikkei 225 Closed +0.65% AT 38,027.29
• Hang Seng Closed +0.6% AT 23,483.32
• FTSE IS UNCHANGED AT 8,668.40
• Euro Stoxx 50 is Down 0.65% AT 5.439.52
• DJIA CLOSED ON TUESDAY UNCHANGED AT 42,587.50
• S&P 500 CLOSED +0.16 AT 5,776.65
• NASDAQ CLOSED +0.46% AT 18,271.86
• S&P/Tsx Composite Index Closed +0.14% AT 25 , 339.50
• S&P 40 Latin America Closed +1.03% AT 2.480.80
• US 10-YEAR Treasury Rate is up 1 BPS at 4.33%
• E-mini S&P 500 Futures Are Down 0.15% AT 5.817.50
• E-mini NASDAQ-100 Futures Are Down 0.2% AT 20,448.50
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Futures Are Down 0.12% AT 42,854.00

Bitcoin Stats:

• BTC Dominance: 61.46 (-0.03%)
• Ethereum to Bitcoin Ratio: 0.02344 (-0.85%)
• Hashrate (Seven-Day Moving AVERAGE): 838 eh/s
• HashPrice (Spot): $ 50.17
• Total Fees: 13.1 BTC / $ 1,152,066
• CME FUTures Open Interest: 147,550 BTC
• BTC PRICED IN GOLD: 29.1 OZ
• BTC VS Gold Market Cap: 8.26%

Technical AnalysisUSD/Jpi’s Daily Chart. (TradingView/Coindesk)

• The Yen-Dollar’s 50-Day Simple MOVING AVERAGE (SMA) HAS Crossed Under Iter 200-Day SMA, Confirming A So-Called Death Cross Bearish Momentum Pattern.
• IT’s A SIGN OF AN IMPENDING Rally in the Yen, Seen As A Haven Currency, Which Could Destabilize Risk Assets, Including Cryptocurrency.
• The Yen-Bullish Pattern Comes as Talk of Bank of Japan Rate Increases Gathers Pace.

Crypto equities

• Strategy (Mstr): Closed on Monday at $ 341.81 (+1.81%), Up 0.47% AT $ 343.40 In Pre-Market
• Coinbase Global (Coin): CLOSED AT $ 204.23 (+0.59%), Down 0.11% AT $ 204
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): CLOSED AT C $ 18.65
• MARA HOLDINGS (MARA): CLOSED AT $ 14.25 (-2.46%), Down 0.35% AT $ 14.30
• Riot Platforms (Riot): CLOSED AT $ 8.51 (-2.41%), Down 0.12% AT $ 8.50
• Core Scientific (Corz): CLOSED AT $ 8.66 (-6.98%), Down 0.12% AT $ 8.65
• Cleanspark (CLSK): CLOSED AT $ 8.73 (-0.68%), Down 0.11% AT $ 8.72
• Coinshares Valkyrie Bitcoin Mines ETF (WGMI): Closed AT $ 15.65 (-4.05%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): CLOSED AT $ 42.38 (-1.17%)
• Exodus Movement (Exod): Closed AT $ 56.04 (+6.46%), Up 0.82% AT $ 56.50

ETF FlowsSPOT BTC ETFS:

• Daily Net Flow: $ 26.8 Million
• Cumulative Net Flows: $ 36.24 Billion
• Total BTC Holdings ~ 1,115 Million.

Spot eth etfs

• Daily Net Flow: -$ 3.3 Million
• Cumulative Net Flows: $ 2.43 Billion
• Total Eth Holdings ~ 3.415 Million.

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight FlowsChart of the dayBitcoin: 1y+ Hodl Chart. (Bitbo charts)

• The Chart Shows Represents of Crypto Addresses – or Wallets – that have Held their bitcoin for at least One Year Without Any Outgoing Transactions.
• The Metric Has Turned Up in Recent Weeks, Rising from 61.8% to 63.4% in A Sign of Renewed Holding Sentiment.

While You Were Sleeping

• Russia, Ukraine agree to sea, energy truuce; Washington Seeks Ease of Sanctions (Reuters): Shortly After The Washington-Brokered Truce Was AnnounCed, Moscow SAID The PAUSE IN Maritime and Energy Attacks Wulda Banks Were Removed.
• Top Federal Reserve Official Says Market Angst Over Inflation would be ‘Red Flag (Financial Times)
• Movement’s Move Token Soars 25% as Strategic Reserve Is Unveiled AFTER MALICIOS MARKET MAKER ACTIVITY Recovered from A Market Maker Acused of Breaching Contract Terms.
• Peter Thiel-Backed Plasma Unveils ‘Hotstuff-Inspired Consensus’ For High-Frequent Global Stablecoin Transfers (Coindesk) Confidential Transactions.
• Celo Migration to Layer-2 Network is Done, Bringing in New Era for the Blockchain (Coindesk): Celo Completed ITS transition from A Layer-1 BLOCKCHAIN ​​TO ATHEREUM LAYER-2 CHAIN ​​AFTER AFTER A.
• Canada and India Look to Reset Ties in Counter To Tru Trump’s Duties (Bloomberg): The Two Countries Are Reportedly Considering Mendering The Diploma Rift, whon theater 2023 of Potential New US Tariffs.

In the Ether