“Alex Krüger Says Recent Liquidations and Scary Charts Could Set Up A Bullish Rebound, Thought CONVICATION TRENDS MAY WAIT UNTIL After the Fed’s Sept. 17 Decision.”, – WRITE: www.coindesk.com
On Saturday, Krüger Wrote on X, that “MOST Crypto Charts Now Look So Broken and Bearish That Is Bullish.” He argued that some price Action Looks this Bad, the panic has usually Gone Far Enough that a reversal May not be far behind.
The Bearish ChartsKrüger Attached A Series of Charts from Binance and Derivatives Dashboards.
They Included Bitcoin BTC$ 108.774.34 And Eth (ETH) SPOT PRICE Charts, Both of Which Had Fallen Belaw Short-Term Upward Trendlines, Creating A Technical Bearish Picture. He also posted a solana SOL$ 202.76 Chart That Showed Relative Resilience Compared With Btc and Eth.
Alongside thorse, he Shared Btc-USDT and Eth-USDT Derivatives Charts, Who Combined Futures Indicators-Such as Funding Rates and Long Liquidations-with Opions. Together, they showed Traders Had Turned Heavily Defensive.
Liquidations and leverage resetIn his post, krüger said long liquidations had been “significant,” especialy in “the last twnow rounds after the close today.”
In Futures Markets, Traders Can Borrow to Take Bullish Bets. WHEN PRICES FALL, THEIR COLLATERAL GETS WIPED OUT AND EXCHANGES AUTOMATICALLY CLOSE POSITS. This Kind of Forced Selling Pushes Prices Down Further in A Cascade. Oner, However, Markets Can Stabilize Because the Excess Leverage Has Already Been Flushed Out.
Majors Under Pressure, ALTS STEADIERThe Analyst ALSO HIGHLIGTED THAT BITCOIN AND Ether Absorbed Most of the Selling, While Many Altcoins Had Already Stopped Crashing Earlier in the Day. Normally, Smaller Tokens Collapse After Majors, Not Before Them.
For krüger, that divergence is “offen a sign of upcoming Strength,” Suggesting Panic Selling May Be Winding Down.
Krüger Told Followers to “Check The Skew,” Noting That Puts Were Much More Expensive Than Calls. In options markets, that imbalance of Signals Defensive Positioning and Heigheted Fear.
For Contrarians Like Krüger, One-Sided Fear offen Precedes a Rebound, Because if Everyone Is Already Hedging, There Are Fewer Selers Left to Push Prices Lower.
The fomc catalystWhile he is “Bullish Into Next Week,” Krüger Sayid He Doesn’t Expect Strong Trends to Develop Until After The Federal Reserve’s Next Policy Meeting.
The Federal Open Market Committe (FOMC) Meets Sept. 16–17, with A Rate Decision and Press Conference at the Conclusion on Sept. 17.
He Expects the Fed To Cut Interest Rats, WHICH HE ARGUES IS “NOT FULLY PRICED IN.”
Lower Rates Reduce The Cost of Borrowing and Onthen Add Liquidity, Which Can Boost Demand for Risk Assets Like Crypto.
The Cycle ViewKrüger Emphasized that this is not the end of the cycle, Even if prices Further in the short term. At Same Time, He Does Not Expert of the Kind of Euphoric “Blow-Off Top” that has marked Past Crypto Bull Markets.
The One Exception, He Said, Could Be Sol, WHICH Continues to Attract Inflows from New Decentralized Treasuries Deploying Capital on the Network.
For Krüger, The Setup Is Straightforward: Charts Look Ugly, Liquidations Are Begind, Options Pricing Screames Fear, and the Fed Decision Looms. His message was Simple – The Time to Bet On Upside Is Who Panic Is Loudest, Not Who Celebrations Begin.
River’s Research Estimates Btc Ownership at 65.9% for Individuals, 7.8% for Funds, 6.2% for Businesses and 1.5% for Governments. About 7.6% is Believed to be Lost.
- River’s Research Estimates that As of Aug. 25, 2025, Individuals Hold About 65.9% of BTC (13.83 Million Coins).
- Funds and etfs Control about 7.8% of Supple; Businesses HOLD 6.2% AND GOVERNments Control 1.5%.
- River Says The Distribution is Inferred from Filings, Address Taging and Prior Research. In Other Words, It Is An Estimate, Not An on-Chain Census.
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