November 23, 2025
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Coinbase ‘Negative Premium’ at Widest Level Since Q1, Signaling Weak US Demand

Bitcoin is on track for its worst weekly performance since March, while US demand indicators weaken as the Coinbase premium declines and spot ETFs reach a record volume.”, — write: www.coindesk.com

Coinbase ‘Negative Premium’ at Widest Level Since Q1, Signaling Weak US DemandBitcoin is on track for its worst weekly performance since March, while US demand indicators weaken as the Coinbase premium declines and spot ETFs reach a record volume. Nov 22, 2025, 3:51 pm

The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index, which measures the price gap between bitcoin on Coinbase and the global market average, has fallen to a negative divergence of -0.15%, the widest since Q1 this year.

A negative reading of the index means bitcoin is trading cheaper on Coinbase, signaling weakness in US demand, selling pressure and waning institutional appetite. This trend began after the crypto liquidation event on Oct. 10 and has persisted throughout November.

The move comes as bitcoin BTC$86,111.94 is on track for its worst week since early March, having fallen more than 11% and briefly dipped below $81,000 before stabilizing at around $84,000. November has also delivered steep losses, with bitcoin currently down 23%, marking its worst monthly performance since June 2022, when it dropped 38%.

Capitulation event?This shift in market sentiment is also visible in US spot bitcoin ETFs, which have seen persistent outflows for most of November.

Read more: Bitcoin ETFs Have Bled a Record $3.79B in November

However, Friday broke that streak with $238.4 million of inflows, the largest since Nov. 11, according to Farside data. It was also a record volume day, with the ETFs collectively trading $11.5 billion according to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $8 billion of that total.

Balchunas also noted that IBIT saw a record week for put volume, indicating that “this is one thing that may help people stay the course, they can always buy some puts as a hedge while they stay long.”

Given bitcoin’s 36% drawdown from its October all-time high, Friday may represent a high-volume capitulation event, often observed at local price bottoms. While it’s not guaranteed, the events may be signaling BTC’s potential attempt to stabilize in the low $80,000 range.

Glassnode data shows more than $4 billion in realized bitcoin losses on Friday, the highest level since March 2023 during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, another potential capitulation data point.

Read more: Bitcoin Sell-Off Led by Mid-Cycle Wallets While Long-Term Whales Hold Firm: VanEck

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  • GoPlus Intelligence’s Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025, with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month.
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Bitcoin’s Plunge Brings Strategy’s Holdings to Near Breakeven, but Key Test Lies 18 Months Ahead

Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor (Danny Nelson, modified by CoinDesk)Michael Saylor’s company’s balance sheet isn’t at imminent risk of collapse, but further capital-raising efforts could surely be hindered unless conditions improve.

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  • Despite volatility, Strategy’s balance sheet faces no immediate stress, and the main pressure point sits about 18 months away when the first put option on the company’s convertible notes becomes exercisable.
  • Performance has diverged across the preferreds, with the STRF and STRC series trading above issue, while STRK and STRD sit meaningfully below their launch prices.
  • Management has multiple options should the bitcoin market remain under stress, but use of any is likely to hinder future capital-raising efforts.

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