“Photo: pexels.com unfavorable news for coffee enthusiasts – due to drought in Brazil and excessive precipitation in Vietnam, a significant deterioration of the crop is expected. Production in Brazil decreased by 10-11%, in Vietnam-by 10-20%. As a result, the cost of the product can increase by 40% this year, which will increase the cost of 10-20% for buyers. At first glance, it’s […]”, – WRITE: Businessua.com.ua
Photo: pexels.com
Adverse news for coffee enthusiasts – due to drought in Brazil and excessive precipitation in Vietnam, a significant deterioration of the crop is expected. Production in Brazil decreased by 10-11%, in Vietnam-by 10-20%. As a result, the cost of the product can increase by 40% this year, which will increase the cost of 10-20% for buyers. At first glance, it is a misery compared to the 125 percent rise in prices for Arabica last year. However, current prices in retail points are already enough High, and the situation tends to deteriorate.
For example, if now the average cost of 100 g of grain coffee is 80 UAH, then in the near future this figure can reach 96 UAH. A pack of ground coffee weighing 250 g, which today can be purchased for 250 UAH, after the rise in price will cost 300 UAH.
About the details of the market situation Briefly about told Gemini founder and head of GEMINI.
Pricing depends not only on the crop but also on information about its quantity – Alexei, in Ukraine expected to increase coffee prices by 20% by the end of the year. Why does Brazil determine the world trends, given the availability of other production regions?
– Brazil remains the world leader in the production of Arabica, making it a key player on the exchange. Coffee beans occupy the second place among the most trade goods after oil. Recently, this product has attracted the attention of speculators and investors, so any negative information-for example, about climatic anomalies-instantly affects quotes.
Alexei Tarnopolsky. Photo: personal archive
The southern hemisphere is especially sensitive to temperature fluctuations: frosts are destroyed by both crops and coffee trees. Often, even an announcement on the potential reduction of the next crop triggers the mechanism of raising exchange prices. The chain then includes farmers, traders and manufacturers who focus on current quotations when concluding transactions.
The previous year showed a sharp jump in prices in the fall – almost 100%. This forced manufacturers to buy raw materials at new, much higher tariffs. Market inertia allows for some time to maintain stability at the expense of stocks, but prolonged increase in cost inevitably leads to correction of retail prices.
– Does inflation only apply to Arabica or other varieties?
– The cost increases comprehensively. When Arabica went up sharply, the manufacturers began to add more cheaper robusta to blends to reduce the pressure on the end consumer. However, this provoked demand and, accordingly, increasing prices for Robusta.
– Does the climate crisis of monoshore coffee threatens?
– Monosarts are products from a particular region or plantation collected in a certain period. It is the basis of a specialty-kava specialty that is gaining popularity. Normal Brazil arabica goes a massive flow without focus on specific farms, while the specialality is focused on unique characteristics: cultivation site, collection technology, processing method. The industry is constantly evolving thanks to new varieties, fermentation experiments and advanced SCA standards.
Optimal way of saving is direct purchase from the manufacturer – How to find a balance between quality and savings when choosing coffee?
– It is important to avoid cheap products – they are accompanied by low quality and poor taste. The best option is to buy without intermediaries: retail networks usually make a considerable margin. Consulting with the expert will help you choose the best product, taking into account the method of preparation.
For example, the cheapest kilogram of fried coffee for 400 UAH will allow you to get 100 servings of 4 UAH, but the taste will be mediocre. Coffee for 700 UAH per kilogram will give a portion for 7 UAH with moderate quality. The premium product for 1000 UAH will provide a high taste for 10 UAH per portion. The difference of 6 UAH per cup is significantly reflected in quality.
– Are there any alternatives that have a similar effect with coffee?
– The choice of drink is individual. Modern studies emphasize that moderate consumption of quality coffee has an antioxidant effect, improves metabolism and has a positive effect on cognitive functions. The main thing is to maintain volumes and avoid using an empty stomach or at bedtime.
– Is it true that Ukrainians consume more coffee for other European peoples?
– Our indicators are lower than European, but show growth. Historically, part of the product was smuggled, which complicated accounting. Now the culture of use is progressing, but we are still behind the countries of Eastern Europe. For example, Scandinavians per person have 3-4 times more coffee, and they prefer large portions with slow consumption.
Numbers
According to research, the average annual coffee consumption in Ukraine varies between 1.5 and 4 kg per person. This includes grain, ground and instant coffee. The product import in five years increased by 63%, reaching 48.4 thousand tons worth $ 166 million in 2020.
Dynamics of rising prices for Arabica in the last two years. Impresses. Photo provided by Alexei Tarnopolsky
Historical dynamics:
- 2000 – 0.2 kg/person per year
- 2018 – 1.2 kg/person
- 2020 – 1.5 kg/person
Cardiologist’s opinion: How does coffee affect health? Cardiologist Andriy Sisetsky:
– soluble beverages have minimal benefit to the body. Natural grain coffee is a better alternative, but requires careful attitude. The ideal time to eat – after breakfast, in moderation. Excessively fried varieties and abuse of quantity should be avoided. A sharp rejection of the product can cause stress to the body, so it is recommended to gradually reduce portions.
Source: kp.ua
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