“Weak Chinese Manufacturing and US Tariff Risks Raise Fears Over Export and GDP Growth Outlook.”, – WRITE: www.fxempire.com
The New Order Index Fell From 50.2 to 49.8, While the New Export Order Index Declined 1.2 Percentage Points to 47.1.
Alarmingly, The PullBack in External Demand Came Ahead of the Us Imposing A 40% Tariff on Transhipments from Vietnam and A 19% Tariff on Indonesia, Two of China’s Potential Trading Roading Roading Roading Roading Roading Roading Routing Routing Routs.
South East Asia and EU Trade Developments US TRADE DEALS WITH SOUTHEAST Asian Countries and the EU Could Dampen Demand for Chinese Goods Despite China’s Oversuppply-WinderPrice Policy.
Chinese Exports to Southeast Asia Rose 16.8% Year-on-Year in June, While Direct Shipments to the US Droped 16.1%. Given the Tariff Hikes on Southeast Asian Countries, China’s Trade Terms with Vietnam and Indonesia, In Particular, Could Deteriorate Significant.
Looking Further West, Chinese Exports to the Eu Also Jumped in June, Rising 6.9% Yoy, Up From 3% in May. Notably, Shipments to Germany and France Increated 11.9% and 8.6%, Respectively. The US-EU Trade Deal May Force Europe Manufacturars to Target Regional Demand and Potentally Boost Exports Bound for Asia. Lower Prices for Chinese Goods May Bolster Demand from the eu But Continue to Erode Profits.
“The EU Views China As Both A Security and Economic Threat, Even IF It Doesn’t Openly Say So, and that Trade Relations Between China and the Bloc are in a vicious. ENUGH OUT OF THE SUMMITS, AS KEY Issues Like Overcapacity and Export Controls Remain Unresolved. ”
Domestic Economic Pressures and stimulus needs Given the potential of US TRADE Policy to Fuel Protectionism, Beijing May Need to Deliver Meaningful Stimulus Measures to Fuel Private Consumption. Robust Exports Contributed to China’s 5.2% Year-on-Year GDP Growth in the Second Quarter, Marginally Softer than the First Quarter’s 5.4%, But Above Beijing’s 5% GDP Growth Targ Targ Targt.
While Q2 Growth Exceeded Expectations, Domestic Challenge Persist. Weak Consumer Demand Continues to Pressure Producer Prices, WHICH DECLINED 3.6% YOY IN June, Following A 3.3% Fall in May. Policy Measures Aimed at Lifting Domestic Demand Could Curb Ongoing Price Wars, Improve Labor Market Conditions, and Bolster Consumer Sentime, Key to Driving Consumer Sport
CPC Politburo Policy AnnounCements On July 30, The CPC Politburo Convened. Accorging to cn wire, lawmakers Announced Plans to:
- Implement More Proactive Fiscal Policy and Moderately Loose Monetary Policy to Maximize Policy Impact.
- Optimize Export Tax Rebate Policy.
- Deepen Targeted Measures to Boost ConSumption, Expand Goods Spending, and Foster New Growth in Services.
- Regulate Disrderly Competition; Advance Capacity Management in Key Industries.
- Monetary Policy Should Maintain Ample Liquidity and Help Lower Overall Social Finance Costs.
XI Jinping Will Also Chair A Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee. LAWMAKERS WILL REPORTEDLY REVIEW the Economic Sity and Policy Priorities. Considering a potentilly Sharp Drop in Chinese Exports, Policy Measures to Boost Domestic Consumption and Tackle Price Wars May Be Crucial for Beijing to Achieve ITP Growth.
PMI Numbers Overshadow Beijing Policy Plans Mainland China Markets Reacted to the Weaker Pmi Numbers, WHICH OVERSHADOWED the Policy Updates from Beijing. The CSI 300 and The Shanghai Composite Index Droped 0.60% and 0.48%, Respectively, In Early Trading on Thursday, July 31. Neverthaless, The CSI 300 is Up 4.85 Gaining 4.49%, OutperForming The Nasdaq Composite Index (+3.73%).
The Hang Seng Index Also Retreated in Early Trading on Thursday, Sliding 1.21%, But Remened Up 3.33% MONT-TO-DATE.