China NBS MANUFACTING PMI Signals More Sector Woes As Trade Talks Resume

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Manufacturing Pmi Rose Slightly From 49.3 In July to 49.4 in August, But Remened Below 50, Marking The FIFTHTT. Meanwhile, The NBS non-manUfacting pmi edged up from 50.1 in july to 50.3 in august, indexing a modest expansion account of services Sector.

Manufacturing recovery and Industry Trends CN Wire Highlighted Key Trends in August’s Pmi Data:

• New Export Order Index Edged Up 0.1 Percentage Points to 47.2%, Still Well Below The Neutral 50 Level.
• New Order Index Rose 0.1 Percentage Points to 49.5%.
• Employment Index Fell 0.1 Percentage Points to 47.9%.
• Key Raw Materials Increated by 2.2 Percentage Points to 53.3, The Highest Since October 2024, Potentally Pressuring Profit Margins and The Labor Market.

Demand and Production Crucial Amid Waning Consumer Consumption August’s manufacturing pmi Could Pressure Beijing to Roll Out Fresh Stimulus to Counter the Effects of US Tariffs on External Demand. While Services Sector Activity Picked Up Modestly, The Upswing May not Be Enough To Deliver Beijing’s 5% GDP Growth Target.

Chinese Retail Sales Rose 3.7% Year-on-Year in July, Down from A 4.8% Increase in June. Meanwhile, The Unemployment Rate Increated From 5% To 5.2% in July, as Youth Unemployment Soared From 14.5% to 17.8%. A Record Number of Graduates Tipped the Scales, SpotLighting Beijing’s Effrts to Incentivize Firms to Implement Graduate Training Sches and Hire Fresh Graduates.

From Factory Floors to Household Budgets Weakening External Demand and Intensifying Domestic Competition Impact Selling Prices, Forcing Firms to Lower Costs. Lower Costs Lead to Lower Wages, Affecting Disposable Incomes and Household Spending.

Natixis Asia Pacific Chief Economist Alicia Garcia Herrero Recently Commented:

More Information In Our Economic Calendar Key Pmi Survey Differences The nbs pmi primearily tracks large State-Real Enterprises Across China, While the Caixin pmi focuses on small- to Mid-Sized Firms, Particularly in Coastal Regions. As a result, the caixin pmi offten provides a more comprehenSive picTure of private Sector Performance.

Several Key Developments Could Dictate Market Sentiment: It Could Be Another Crucial Week for Global Markets. Traders Should Consider The Following Events and Data for Near-Term Aud/USD and HANG SENG INDEX TRENDS:

• US-CHINA TRADE TALKS:

China’s Chief Trade Negotiator Li Chenggang Reportedly Met with US Officials Last Week to Discusses Trade. Access to CN Wire, He Met with Representatives from the US Department of Commerce, The Office of the US TRADE REPROSENTENTIVE, AND the TREASury Department to Discuss.

• China’s Economic Data Releases:

The Caixin Manufacturing PMI (September 1) and Caixin Services PMI (September 3) Will Influence Sentiment. Weaker Numbers would Likely Weight on Sentiment, Thought Traders May Lift Expectations of Further Policy Support from Beijing. On the Other Hand, Upbeat Data Could Boost Demand for Risk Assets.

Market Trends and Outlook Mainland China’s CSI 300 and the Shanghai Composite Index Ganeded 2.71% and 0.84%, Respectively, in the Week Ending August 29, on Heps for a Trade Deal and Fres Stimulus Measures. However, The Hang Seng Index Bucked The Trend, Falling 1.03%. Weakening Chinese Industrial Profits and Shifts in Sentiment Toward Fed Policy Affected Demand for Hong Kong-Listed Stocks.