China Faces Trade-Offs in Talks with US AMID WEAK DEMAND AND EXPORT RISKS

Considering the Terms of Japan and the Eu’s Trade Deals, The Bigger Question is Whather China would of agree to an imbalanced deal. A 90-day expression would Kick the Proverbial Can Down The Road, Potentilly Paving The Way for a Meeting Between President Trump and XI Jinning to Iron Out Poticial Sticking Points.

Tariff Tactics: Trump’s Playbook Revisited CBB’s Derek Scissors, Asia Economist at the American Enterprise Institute, Discussed The Potential for a Phase 2 Deal On July 28, Stating:

“If the Chinese Make a Deal with The United States, if they willing to do that, I Think they Understand, I Think Europe Understans, They’re Noting Anything Knows, and that’s the Major Concern the Chinese have. Last? ”

Discussing The Potential Tactics to Continue Extending the Deadline, Scissors SAID:

“Right, The President, As You Guys Said, The President Wants A Meeting with XI. […]. A Big Meeting Not Just A Sideline Meeting, WHERE they come, you know, somebody comes out and gives a report of what the meting was. He Wants A Big Event, and He Wants, You Know, A Big Deal with Lots of Dollar Figures Involved. We’ve seen this pattern. So, they’re stalling to see if the chinese will agree to that and kinder they can Annoughter it. ”

Scissors Pointed Out that Phase One Deal from Trump’s First Term Pushed for More US Exports and Failed. Trump Could Aim for the Same, Given That China Is Unlikely to Invest Heavily in The Us.

China’s Households, % of Deposits Held on Demand The Weak Domestic Environment Could Challenge Beijing’s 5% GDP Growth Target for 2025, Given Recent Trade Developments. US Tariffs on Indonesia (19%) and Transhipments from Vietnam (40%) May Weight on Demand from Southeast Asia.

Exports to Southeast Asia Rose 16.8% Year-on-Year in June, While Exports to The US TumbLED 16.1%. Higher Tariffs on China’s Key Trade Routes Through Southeast Asia May Impact Trade Terms and the Broader Economy. Despite US Tariffs, China’s Exports Rose 5.8% Year-on-Year (Yoy) in June, A Sharp Pickup from May’s 4.8% Increase. Strong Exports Contributed to China’s 5.2% Year-on-Year GDP Growth in the Second Quarter, Marginally Softer than the First Quarter’s 5.4%, But Above the 5% GDP Target.

A Sharp Drop in Exports To Southeast Asia and US Tariffs on Chinese Goods May Pressure China’s Private Sector. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT A US-CHINA Trade Deal Could Also Force Beijing to Delay Meaningful Stimulus to Bolster the Economy. Addressing domestic demand could be crucial. But Weakening External Demand May Impact the Labor Market, Consumer Sentiment, and Household Spending.

Given the Dynamics, China May Want More Certain with a balanced Trade Deal, but Getting One May Require Xi Jinning to Make Significant Compromises.

US-CHINA Trade Talks Fuel Uncertainty, Impacting Market Sentiment Mainland China Markets retreated in Early Trading on Tuesday, July 29, with The CSI 300 Pulling Further Back from Eight-Month Highs. However, Despite The PullBack, The CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index have posted july-to-date gains of 5.02%and 4.38%, Respectively, OutperForming The Nasdaq. EASING TRADE TENSIONS AND HOPES FOR A DEAL HAVE LIFTED SENTIMENT. However, Uncertainty and Renewed Tensions Could Trigger A Reversal, Potentally Exposing April’s Seven-Month Lows.

The Hang Seng Index Also Retreated in Early Trading on Tuesday, But Remated Up 5.15% MONTH-TO-DATE.