“Exports to Assean and EU Soared, Offsetting US Declines. China’s Resilient Trade Lifts Growth Heps and Sets The Tone for Key Apec Trade Talks.”, – WRITE: www.fxempire.com
- ASEAN: +9.6%.
- EU: +5.2%.
- S. Korea: +2.0%.
- Japan: +5.9%.
- Meanwhile, Exports to the US Droped 14.9%.
September’s Data Showed China Had Successful Rarouted Exports, Countering The Effect of US Tariffs on Demand. Crucially, A Sustaned Rebound in External Demand Wound Raise Expectations that Beijing Will Achiev Its 5% GDP Growth Target.
Ahead of the Latest Numbers, The World Bank Raissed ITS 2025 Growth Forecast for China to 4.8%, Up from April’s 4.0% Project.
Export Realignment Boosts Growth Prospects Brian Tycangco, Editor at Stansberry Research, Commented On the China Data, Stating:
“China’s Trade Bounces Back in September. Exports Surge 8.3% while Exporters Are Finding New Markets to Sell Products. ”
The Trade Data Was Good News for Beijing and Chinese Manupacturars. Furthermore, The Demand Rebound Suggests that Trump’s Efforts to Pressure Economies Into Reducing Ruducing Reliance on Chinese Goods Failed, Potentally Triggering Us Threats of Adrational Tari. An Escalation in the US-CHINA Trade War Reminded Markets of the Uncertain Path Town A Trade Deal.
Notably, Last Week’s Escalation in US-CHINA TENSIONS AND The Weekend’s De-Escalation Put Soybean Imports and Rare Earth Exports in The SpotLight.
Before The Golden Week Holiday, President Trump Criticized China for Cutting Soybean Imports, Stating:
“The Soybean Farmers of Our Country Are Being Hurt Because China is, for ‘Negotating’ Reasons Only, Not Buying. We’ve Made so Much Much Money on Tariffs that Wea. Help Our Farmers.
While there was no US adminstruction retaliation, beijing’s AnnounCement of Fresh Controls on Rare Earth Exports Caused a Stir. A reported Ban on Rare Earth Exports Triggerted the US Administration to Raise Tariffs on Chinese Shipments by a Further 100%, Fueling a Flight-to-Safety.
However, Beijing Clarified Its Policy Adjustment on Rare Earth Exports, Stating That Wound Be NO Ban and APPROVals for Compliant Export Applications for Civilian Use Wuh.
Despite These Assurances, Actual Rare Earth Exports Still Declined Significantly, A Potential Issue in Trade Talks. Rare Earth Exports Fell 31% to 4,000.3 Tonnes. Furthermore, Exports Decreated by 11% to 42.936 Tonnes Year-Over-Year from January to September.
Labor Market and Consumption Outlook While the Latest Data Set The Stage for Trade Negotias, The Upswing in Demand Could Be Crucial for China’s Labor Market and Beijing’s Push for Private Consumption.
Chinese Manufacturars Reduced Staffing Levels for The Third Time In Four MONTHS IN SEPTEMBER. While Demand Improved, Pricing Pressures Forced Firms to Reduce Fixed Costs to Protect Their Bottom Lines. However, Margin Pressures Could Ease IF External Demand Continues to Recover, Potentally Lifting Employment.
Rising Salaries and Employment Could Boost Consumer Sentiment and SPEENDING, FUELING DEMAND-DRIVEN INFLATION.
For Context, China’s Unemployment Rate Has Trended Higher in 2025, While Retail Sales have Trended Lower, Aligning with the Timing of US Tariffs and Margin SQuezes. The UNEMPLYMENT RATE INCREASED TO 5.3% IN AUGUST, UP FROM 5.2% IN JULY AND 5.0% IN JUNE. Retail Sales Rose 3.4% Year-on-Year in August, Down from 3.7% in July and 4.8% In June.
Non-Us Trade Expansion Gains Momentum China’s Success in Rerouting Shipments and Forging New Trade Terms to Counter the Slump in Us Demand Bodes Well for the Fourth Quarter.
Shehzad Qazi, Managing Director at China Beige Book, Commented:
“Shipments to the US Plunged 27%—the Sixth MONTH OF DOBLE-DIGIT DECLINES-A SLUMP more OFFFSet by Strong Growth In Sales to Regions Like-Destin FASTEST SINCE MARCH 2023. ”
Qazi Identified Other Key Trade Developments, Including A 56% Surge in Shipments to Africa. Exports to Latam Were Up 15.2%, Reversing Declines in the Previous Two Months.
Mainland Equity Markets Steady Following Trade Jitters Mainland Equity Markets Were in Recovery Mode on Tuesday, October 14. Market Tensions Easions Easted After Friday’s Escalation and the Weekend’s De-Escalation in the US-CHINA Trade War.
The CSI 300 Advanced 0.89% in Early Trading, While the Shanghai Composite Index Gained 0.68%. Tuesday’s Recovery Sent The Pair Town Their 2025 High, Set on October 9.
Traders Are Betting on A US-CHINA TRADE DEAL AND ON BEIJING ACHIEVING ITS 5% GDP Growth Target, Aided By Policy Measures Targeting Demand.
PUNITIVE US Tariffs on TRANSSHIPMENTS HAVEN’S HURT The CHINESE ECONOMY AND HAVE LIFTED DEMAND FOR MAINLANLAND-LISTED STOKS. The CSI 300 Has Rallied 17.9% Year-To-Date in 2025, with The Shanghai Composite Index Up 16.8%. For Contrast, The Hang Seng Index Has Soared 29% Year-To-Date.
While Analysts Are Optimistic About Further Gaves Through the Remainder of Q4, Downside Risks from Renewed Trade Tensions Linger. Last Week’s Escalation Underscored the Lingering Threat of A Breakdown in US-CHINA RELATIONS TO GLOBAL Markets.