Bitcoin Trails Equities, Metals, and USD in Q3. Here is a Key Level to Watch For Next Move

Bitcoin Trails Equities, Metals, and USD in Q3. Here is a Key Level to Watch For Next MoveOptions Expiry and Key Technical Levels Weight on BTC As Equities and Bitcoin Trends Diverge. Sep 27, 2025, 6:00 PM

BTC$ 109.478.06 just ended wht is historically the Largest Cryptocurrency’s Third-Worst Week of the Year with a Greater-Tan-Average Drop of 5%. Week 38 Effectvely Closes Out The Third Quarter, WHICH IS UP About 1%, as Well As September, Which Has Managed to Hold Flat.

While the Figures Are Consistent with the Period’s Historical Reputation As One of the Weakest Seasons of the Year, A FEW CATALYSTS MIGHT HAVE CONTRIBUTED to the Underport.

On Friday, More Than $ 17 Billion in Options Expired, with The Max Pain Price – The Strike Price at Wich Option Holders Lose of the most Money And Options Writers Profit. Gravitational Center for the Spot Price.

A Key Technical Factor Remains the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $ 110.775, WHICH REFLECTS The AVERAGE on -chain Acquisition Price for Coins that Moved in the Past Six montho.

Bitcoin tested this level in august, and in bull markets, It Typical Moves Toward this Line Multiple Times. This Year, It Broke Significantly Below That Level Only Once: Durying The Tariff Tantrum in April, WHEN IT DROPED TO AS LOW As $ 74,500.

Cost Basis (Glassnode)

Zooming Out, It Is Important To Assess Watingher Bitcoin Remains in an Uptrend Characterized By Highher Highs and Highher Lows to Get An Idea of ​​Whather The Rally.

Analyst Caleb Franzen Highlights That Bitcoin Has Slipped Below Its 100-Day Expontial Moving AVERAGE (EMA), with The 200-Day Ema Sitting at $ 106.186. The Previous Significant Low Was AROUND $ 107,252 on Sept. 1, and for the Broader Trend to Remain Intact, Bitcoin Will Need to Hold Above That Level.,

Macro BackdropThe US Economy Grew at Annualized Pace of 3.8% in the Second Quarter, Well Above the 3.3% Estimate and the Strongest Performance of the Second Quarter of 2023. Below Expectations and Marking The Lowest Level Since Mid-July. While spending Data Came in Line with the Market’s Expection. The US CORE PCE PRICE INDEX, The Federal Reserve’s Preferred Measure of Underlying Inflation That Excludes Food and Energy, Rose 0.2% In August 2025 from The Prior MONT.

The Yield on 10-YEAR US Treasuries Bounced Off The 4% Support, and Is Now Trading Near 4.2%. The Dollar Index (DXY) Continues to Hover AROUND Long-Term Support at 98. Meanwhile, Metals Are Leading The Action, With Silver at AT ARUND $ 45 Approaching An All-Time HIME. US EQUITIES, IN THE MEANTIME, ARE JUST SHY OF THEIR RECORDS.

Bitcoin Remains the Outlier at More than 10% Below It Peak.

DXY (TradingView)

Bitcoin-Exaped EquitiesBitcoin Treasury Companies Continue to Face Severe Multiple-To-Net-Value (MNAV) Compression. Strategy (mstr) is barely positive year-to-date. At One Point, It Dipped Below $ 300, A Negative Return for 2025.

The Ratio Between Strategy and Blackrock Ishares Bitcoin Trust etf (Ibit) Stands at 4.8, The Lowest Since October 2024, Which Shows Just How The Largest Bitcoin Treasury Com. The Past 12 Months.

Mstr/ibit ratio (TradingView)

Strategy’s Enterprise Mnav is Currently 1.44 (As of Friday). Enterprise Value HERE HERE ALL BASIC Shares Outstanding, Total Nocial Debt and Total Nocial Value of Perpetual Preferred Stock Minus The Company’s Cash Balance.

The Silver Lining for Mstr is that Three of the Four Perpetual Preferred Stocks, Strk, Strc and Strf, Are All Sporting Positive Lifetime Returns as Execiting Chairman Michael Saylor Look Vehicles.

A Growing Issue for Mstr is the Lack of Volatility in Bitcoin. The Cryptocurrency’s Implied Volatility – A Measure of the Market’s Expert of Future Price Fluctuations – Has Droped Below 40, The Lowest in Years.

This Matters Because Saylor Has of Framed Mstr As A volatility Play on Bitcoin. For Comparison, Mstr’s Implied Volatility is at 68. Its Annualized Standard Deviation of Daily Log Returns Over The Past Year Was 89%, While Over The Last 30 Days Its Fallen.

For equities, Higher volatility of atthen Attracts Speculators, Generates Trading Opportunities and Draws Investor Attraction, So The Decline Is Likely Acting As A Headwind.

Meantime, The Fifth-Largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, Metaplanet (3350), Holds 25.555 BTC and Still Has Roughly $ 500 Million Left to DEPLY FROM ITS INTERNATIONAL OFFERING. Despite this, Its Share Price Continues to Struggle at 517 Yen ($ 3.45), More Than 70% Below It-Ti-Time High.

Metaplanet’s MNAV HAS DROPED TO 1.12, Down Sharply From 8.44 in June. ITS Market Capitalization Now Stands at $ 3.94 Billion Compared to A Bitcoin Nav of $ 2.9 Billion, with An AVERAGE BTC ACQUISION COST OF $ 106.065.

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