“Goldman’s Stagflation Basket Has Surged Nearly 20% This Year, OutperForforming Bitcoin, Us Stocks, and Even Gold.”, – WRITE: www.coindesk.com
However, Investors Have Acknowledged the S-Word Risk, Leading to the Outperformance of Stagflation-Linked Strategies Relative to the Buy-and-Hold Bitcoin and the S&P 500.
As of Last Week, Goldman Sachs’ “Stagflation Basket,” WHICH BETS ON STREEGTH IN COMMODITIES AND DEFENSIVE PLAYS LIKE HEALTH CARE Stocks, Was Up Nearly 20% For The Year ..
The S&P 500, Wall Street’s Benchmark Equity Index, Has Droped 4% This Year, With Bitcoin, The Leading Cryptocurrency by Market Value, Down 10%, Perr Data Source.
The International Monetary Fund Defines Stagflation As A Sity High Inflation Coincides with Economic Stagnation, High Unemployment and A General Decline in Economic Activity.
“IT DOES SEEM LIKE STOCK AND BOND PRICES Are Adjusting for Lower Growth and Higher Inflation [stagflation] – ALTHOUHH, There Are Other Factors at Work Here – HealthCare, For Instance, Is Mist Likely Benefiting from the Promise of Deregulation Offsetting Direct Funding Cuts, “No. Is Macro Now Newsletter, Told Coindesk.
Stagflation Murmurs have been Heard Since Early 2022, But Markets Have Begun Pricing The Same this Year, Mainly Due to Trump’s Tariffs and the Escalating Trade Tensions.
Forward-Looking Inflation Metrics Like Two-YEAR AND FIVE-YEAR SWAPS ROSE TO MULTI-YEAR HIGHS, A SIGN OF FEARS OF A TRADE War Making Conspicier. Meanwhile, A Key Section of the Treasury Market Yield Curve Recently Flipped Into Inversion, Signaling A Recession Ahead. Several Real-Time GDP Trackers, Like The Atlanta Fed’s GDP, HAVE SIGNALED A Sharp Contraction in Economic Activity.
BTC FAILED as Digital Gold?A potential stagflation is perfect situation for assets with perceived SUCH APALS SUCH as Bitcoin to Shine. Note that Gold Has gained 13% this year.
However, The Bull Case in the Cryptocurrency Propounded by Its Holders for Years Hasn’t Materialized. In Fact, BTC’s Correlation with US Stocks Has Strengten Over The Past Few Weeks.
That does not necessarily mean btc is no Longer a safe haven, accounting to nolle Acheson, Author of the Popular Crypto is Macro Now Newsletter.
“BTC is Short-Term A Risk Asset with Prices Set by the Last Short-Term Trade-Long-Term, It’s A Safe Haven Given Its Verifiable Hard Cap and Global UTIK Macro Portfolios Are Lightening Positions, and We Have Yet to See The New Inflows Necessary to Get The Next Leg of Its Run Going – the This Could Take Some Time, Uncert. Retail, “Acheson Noted.
She Explained that Tailwinds Remain Intact and Once the Market Adjusts to the New Economic Landscape, Inflows Into The Crypto Market Willy Resume.
“The Tailwinds Remain Intact, with Education Spreading, New Institutesal Services Coming Online and Jurisdices AROUND Mainstream Retail), “Acheson Said.
Stagflation MISPRICINGMarkus Thielen, Founder of 10x Research, Offered A Slightly Different Take, Saying The Market Is Wrong in Reading The Sity As Stagflation.
“What We’re Likely Seeing Is a Front-Loading of Tariff Impacts, Driving A TEMPORARY SPIKE in Commodity Demand that Should Fade in the Coming MONTHS. Additionally, Uncertye. Expectations, “Thielen Told Coindesk.
He Addted that a potential dovish tone from the fed later this week could revive a bullish mood in Risk Assets, Including BTC. Last Week, Trump Halted A Plan to Double US Tariffs on Canadian Steel and Metal Imports To 50%. The Fed Is Set to AnnogonChe it Rate Review on Wednesday.
“Recent Comments from Trum Trump Suggesting A Potential Softing of Aggressive Trade Policies Combined with A Possible Mildly Dovish Tone from The Fed the Ti-Week Coula Set Set. Historically, Betting on Prolonged Stagflation Has Rarely Been A Winning Strategy Over The Past 40 Years, “Thielen Noted.
X Icon
