“ETF inflows have finally turned positive, but weak on-chain activity, defensive derivatives positioning, and negative spot CVD show a market stabilizing without the conviction needed for a sustained move higher.”, — write: www.coindesk.com
Crypto markets in Asia are opening to a steadier BTC, but the tone is far from bullish. The data shows a market that has stopped bleeding, although not one ready to accelerate. ETF flows, on-chain indicators, and derivatives pricing all point to a holding pattern.
US ETF flows show the first stabilization in weeks, with a $56.5M inflow on December 9 after more than $1.1B in weekly redemptions throughout November, according to data compiled by SoSoValue. Glassnode’s readout is that the recovery is real but shallow. Momentum has improved, yet spot CVD — which tracks cumulative buy minus sell pressure — remains deeply negative, derivatives positioning is defensive, and on-chain activity sits near the low end of its range. Short-term holders still dominate supply, which keeps the market sensitive to volatility.
As Glassnode writes, the mix of signals shows a market that is stabilizing in price but remains structurally weak. The 14-day RSI, a momentum gauge that measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold, has moved back into its midrange, signaling that bitcoin has recovered from the most stretched conditions of last week.
Futures open interest has slipped, the volatility spread is heavily discounted, and options skew shows traders are still paying for downside protection rather than positioning for upside.
On-chain activity offers little confirmation of a stronger trend, with active address counts near cycle lows and realized cap growth at only 0.7 percent, a sign of weak capital inflows. The supply mix is similarly fragile because short-term holders continue to dominate.
Altogether, the data suggests that BTC’s rebound has more to do with the absence of heavy selling than with strong demand.
Until ETF flows turn consistently positive and on-chain activity strengthens, the market is likely to drift rather than trend. A clearer directional move will require a shift in behavior from both long-term holders and institutional allocators, neither of which is visible yet.
Market MovementBTC: Bitcoin is trading near $92,214 after a sharp US session reversal, a move driven by spot demand rather than leverage and seen as a sign of seller exhaustion.
ETH: Ether is hovering around $3,296 after a 6% daily gain, extending its outperformance as short covering and improving sentiment lift large-cap tokens.
Golden: Gold is trading comfortably above $4,200, supported by improved US labor data and expectations of a Fed rate cut, although momentum remains limited ahead of Wednesday’s policy decision.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets traded mostly higher as investors awaited China’s inflation data and a widely expected 0.25% Fed rate cut, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 0.82%.
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The fund would hold bitcoin only overnight, betting on data showing bitcoin gains mostly occur outside regular market hours.
- Nicholas Financial has filed with the SEC to launch a bitcoin ETF that holds BTC only during overnight hours.
- The “AfterDark” ETF buys bitcoin after US stocks close for the day and then sells bitcoin and shifts into Treasuries during the American session.
- Data shows bitcoin tends to perform better when traditional US markets are closed.
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