“Thursday’s decline showed that, despite hopes for being a macro hedge, bitcoin continues to trade like the riskiest of risk assets when markets turn lower.”, — write: www.coindesk.com
Modest overnight declines in crypto turned into a major rout in the US morning as the Nasdaq shed more than 2% and gold tumbled nearly 10% from an overnight record. But while both of those markets managed sizable afternoon bounces — the Nasdaq closing with a decline of just 0.7% and gold reclaiming the $5,400 per ounce level — bitcoin and the rest of crypto held not far from session lows. Bitcoin was trading just above $84,000 at press time. Losing almost 6% over the past 24 hours, bitcoin is on the brink of breaking below its two-month range, which could be a prelude to an even deeper pullback.
Other cryptos and related assets were showing similar declines. Ethereum ETH$2,797.99solana SOL$116.99XRP XRP$1.7993 and DOGE$0.1167were all roughly 7% lower over the last 24-hour period, while crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN), stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) and bitcoin treasury firm Strategy (MSTR) suffered 5%-10% losses.
What’s next for bitcoinMatt Mena, crypto research strategist at 21Shares, said that holding above the $84,000 support level is “critical” for bitcoin. If that fails, he said, the next target is $80,000, where buyers stepped in in November, and below that comes the $75,000 lows hut during the April 2025 tariff tantrum.
Still, the current prices offer a “compelling entry point,” Mena said. He still expects bitcoin to hit $100,000 by the end of the first quarter, or even push to a new record of $128,000 if macroeconomic conditions allow it.
Other analysts warned of a deeper pullback on the horizon.
John Glover, CIO of bitcoin lender Ledn, argued that today’s selloff is part of bitcoin’s broader correction from the October record highs. The move could ultimately drag BTC to $71,000, a 43% decline from the early October level of $126,000.
With the US being a key source of current market uncertainty, Glover argued, investors are favoring alternative havens like gold and the Swiss franc over traditional safe assets like the US dollar and Treasuries. While many expected bitcoin to act as “digital gold,” it is still being treated as a risk asset and selling off with equities, he said.
Like Mena, Glover believes the current difficulties won’t last. “I do believe this is a somewhat temporary situation and we will see a rebound in BTC prices in the coming quarters,” he concluded.
“The technical levels have all been taken out on the downside, and I don’t see much support here for bitcoin,” Russell Thompson, chief investment officer at Hilbert Group, said. He also believes bitcoin could drop as low as $70,000. “The Clarity markup coming out of the committee is bullish, but there is really just a general risk move here.”
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Circle’s rising correlation with ether and DeFi exposure drives the re-rating, despite valuation and competition concerns.
- Compass Point’s Ed Engel upgraded Circle (CRCL) to Neutral from Sell and cut his price target to $60, arguing the stock now trades more as a proxy for crypto markets than as a standalone fintech.
- Engel notes that CRCL’s performance is increasingly tied to the ether and broader crypto cycles, with more than 75% of USDC supply used in DeFi or on exchanges, and the stock is still trading at a rich premium.
- Potential catalysts such as the CLARITY Act and tokenization of US assets could support USDC growth, but Circle faces mounting competition from new stablecoins and bank-issued “deposit coins,” and its revenue may remain closely linked to speculative crypto activity for years.
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