“The market’s focus is now on whether bitcoin can maintain its support levels into the new year, as the failed rally may signal a need for a deeper market reset.”, — write: www.coindesk.com
The so-called ‘Santa rally’ never really arrived. Instead, repeated attempts by bitcoin to reclaim key levels were sold into, while ether and large cap tokens followed lower.
Bitcoin is on track to end December down about 22%, its worst month since December 2018, while ether is on track to end Q4 2025 down 28.07%, according to data curated by CoinGlass.
A ‘Santa rally’ is the tendency for markets to rise in the final week of December and early January, driven by thin liquidity, year-end portfolio rebalancing, and upbeat holiday sentiment.
That weak finish matters because crypto has historically relied on strong late-year flows to set up early-cycle momentum. This time, December looked more like a positioning reset than the start of a new leg higher.
With bitcoin’s fourth-quarter performance turning sharply negative, the quarterly tape now reads as risk off rather than risk on.
(Coinglass)
The contrast with precious metals has been hard to miss.
Gold has pushed to fresh records on rate cut expectations and geopolitical stress, while silver has surged and platinum has also hit new highs, as previously reported by CoinDesk.
Gold has benefited from steady central bank demand and rising ETF allocations, reinforcing its role as a reserve-style hedge when investors are uneasy.
Bitcoin, by comparison, has traded more like a high beta asset. Even when the macro backdrop points towards easier policy, bitcoin has struggled to hold gains without a broader bid for risk.
The pattern has become familiar in late 2025, where bounces have been met by fast profit taking, leverage has been reduced during the holidays, and US hours have tended to see the heaviest selling as funds clean up positions.
Volatile yields and a choppy dollar have kept investors in capital preservation mode, a setup that tends to favor gold first and speculative assets later.
The first test will be whether bitcoin can hold its recent support zones into the new year. If it cannot, the failed Santa rally may be remembered as an early warning that the market still needs a deeper reset before the next sustained run.
KuCoin captured a record share of centralized exchange volume in 2025, with more than $1.25tn traded as its volumes grew faster than the broader crypto market.
- KuCoin recorded over $1.25 trillion in total trading volume in 2025equivalent to an average of roughly $114 billion per monthmarking its strongest year on record.
- This performance translated into an all-time high share of centralized exchange volumeas KuCoin’s activity expanded faster than aggregate CEX volumeswhich slowed during periods of lower market volatility.
- Spot and derivatives volumes were evenly spliteach exceeding $500 billion for the year, signaling broad-based usage rather than reliance on a single product line.
- Altcoins accounted for the majority of trading activityreinforcing KuCoin’s role as a primary liquidity venue beyond BTC and ETH at a time when majors saw more muted turnover.
- Even as overall crypto volumes softened mid-year, KuCoin maintained elevated baseline activityindicating structurally higher user engagement rather than short-lived volume spikes.
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Bubblemaps CEO says outflows seen on Lighter on Dec. 31 are not uncommon as users rebalance hedging positions and move on to the next farming opportunity.
- Approximately $250 million was withdrawn from Lighter after its $675 million LIT token airdrop.
- The withdrawals represent about 20% of Lighter’s total value locked, according to Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman.
- Large withdrawals post-token generation events are common as early participants exit, says CertiK’s Natalie Newson.
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