Bitcoin: Bernstein predicts a major reversal in the first half of 2026

Winter is (not) coming. Although Bitcoin is currently trading 40% below its historical highs around $75,000, Bernstein analysts believe we are only seeing a “short-term bear market.” In a note sent to its clients on Wednesday, February 4, 2026, the team led by Gautam Chhugani predicted a sharp turnaround by the middle of the year, paving the way for the “most significant” cycle in cryptocurrency history.

Key points of this article:

• The Bernstein firm estimated that Bitcoin is now is experiencing a short-term bear market, predicting a sharp turnaround by mid-2026.
• Bernstein expected bitcoin to hit lows around $60,000 before consolidating and continuing to rally, marking an unprecedented institutional cycle.

The lowest point is expected to be around $60,000. Gautam Chhugani and team Bernstein analyze the current correction comparing it with the exceptional performance of gold. By 2025, central banks (especially in China and India) have massively accumulated this precious metal increasing its share in world reserves to 29% . As a result, Bitcoin’s market capitalization is now only 4% from the capitalization of gold, which is a two-year minimum.

However, this is relative fall considered as possibility . Bernstein expects that Bitcoin has “hit rock bottom” near the zone $60,000 (peaks of the previous cycle) during the first half of 2026 before establishing a strong basis for the new growth .

For Bernstein’s team, Bitcoin’s decline is only temporary.

Bitcoin: The Era of Institutionalization and Strategic Reserve Unlike the previous ones cycles, run by individuals, household experts emphasize that we are in “institutional cycle”. Several factors support this thesis of sustainability:

• ETF Success: Cash Bitcoin-based ETFs currently manage assets of approx 165 billion dollars Recent capital outflows remain minimal compared to total assets held.
• Corporate treasury bonds: players like Strategy continue to buy in droves ($3.8 billion year-to-date), even during downturns.
• Political support of the USA: Appointment Kevin Warsh chairman of the Fed and discussions about a strategic bitcoin reserve in the United States are changing the rules of the game. Bernstein argues that the US government is unlikely to remain passive if the market for digital assets continues to fall.

Analysts also note a structural shift among bitcoin miners. Instead of en masse sell their tokens to survive (surrender), many diversified its revenue streams to data centers dedicated to artificial intelligence, thereby reducing vendor pressure on the network.

For Bernstein, the current weakness is not the beginning of a long crypto winter, but an end-of-cycle correction. The expected reversal in 2026 could turn Bitcoin into a true sovereign reserve asset, breaking traditional four-year cycles and entering a a phase of unprecedented institutional and state recognition . And of course we want to believe it!