“Polymarket has launched new prediction markets tied to Volmex’s bitcoin and ether 30-day implied volatility indices.”, — write: www.coindesk.com
The two contracts, “What will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit in 2026?’ and “What will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit in 2026?” went live on Monday at 4:13 PM ET.
These contracts pay “Yes” if any one-minute “candle” for Volmex’s 30-day implied volatility indices tied to bitcoin and ether spikes to or exceeds the preset target by Dec. 31, 23:59. Otherwise, the contracts settle “No.” A one-minute candle is a price chart showing an asset’s price action, the open, high, low, and close, over just 60 seconds. It mimics the shape of a candle with its “body” and “wicks.”
So, if you buy “Yes” shares, you are essentially bullish on volatility, which essentially means you expect a more turbulent market. On the flip side, buying “No” shares means you anticipate stability. In either case, you are betting on the degree of price swings, not the direction.
Polymarket’s new contracts make volatility trading accessible to everyone, offering a simple, direct way to play a game historically dominated by institutions and large traders with ample capital. Traditionally, these big players have used complex, multi-step option strategies or volatility futures to profit from expected changes in volatility.
“Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, launching contracts on Volmex’s BVIV and EVIV Indices is a major milestone for Volmex and crypto derivatives broadly,” Cole Kennelly, founder and CEO of Volmex Labs, told CoinDesk in a Telegram chat.
“This partnership brings institutional-grade BTC and ETH volatility benchmarks into the simple, intuitive prediction market format, making it easier for traders and investors to express views on crypto implied volatility,” Kennelly added.
Early trading in these contracts showed a 35% chance that bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) will double to 80% from its current 40% level this year. The ether market showed almost a similar pricing for volatility to rise to 90% from the present 50%.
Note that the correlation between bitcoin’s implied volatility and spot price has become largely negative since the debut of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US two years ago. It means that any upswing in volatility is more likely to be accompanied by a spot price drop than a rally.
KuCoin captured a record share of centralized exchange volume in 2025, with more than $1.25tn traded as its volumes grew faster than the broader crypto market.
- KuCoin recorded over $1.25 trillion in total trading volume in 2025equivalent to an average of roughly $114 billion per monthmarking its strongest year on record.
- This performance translated into an all-time high share of centralized exchange volumeas KuCoin’s activity expanded faster than aggregate CEX volumeswhich slowed during periods of lower market volatility.
- Spot and derivatives volumes were evenly spliteach exceeding $500 billion for the year, signaling broad-based usage rather than reliance on a single product line.
- Altcoins accounted for the majority of trading activityreinforcing KuCoin’s role as a primary liquidity venue beyond BTC and ETH at a time when majors saw more muted turnover.
- Even as overall crypto volumes softened mid-year, KuCoin maintained elevated baseline activityindicating structurally higher user engagement rather than short-lived volume spikes.
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Bitcoin traded lower alongside most major tokens as investors favored gold and silver ahead of the Federal Reserve decision and a heavy week of Magnificent Seven earnings.
- Bitcoin slipped to about $88,400 in early-week trading, extending a roughly 4% decline over the past week as major cryptocurrencies softened.
- The token’s underperformance versus rising equities and surging gold underscores that crypto is trading more like a high-beta risk asset than a safe-haven hedge.
- Traders are cautious and muted volumes ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision and a wave of Big Tech earnings, events seen as key catalysts for bitcoin’s next move.
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