“Competing Narratives Emerge As Glassnode Points to Profit-Taking Risks and Weak Spot Demand, While QCP Highlights ETF Inflows and Rotration Into Highher-Beta Assets.”, – WRITE: www.coindesk.com
Bitcoin BTC$ 115.425.54 Traded Just Above $ 115k in Asia Tuesday Morning, Slipping Slightly After A Strong Start to the Week.
The Modest PullBack Followed A Run of Inflows Inflows Spot etfs and Lingering Optimism that the Federal Reserve Will Cuts Next Week. The MOVES LEFT TRADERS DIVIDED: is this recovery built on Fragile Foundations, or is Crypto Firmly Back on Track After Last Week’s CPI-DRIVEN JITTers?
That debate is playing out Across Research Desks. Glassnode’s Weekly Pulse Emphasizes Fragality. While etf Inflows Surged Nearly 200% Last Week and Futures Open Interest Jumped, The Underlying Spot Market Looks Weak.
Buying CONVICATION REMAINS SHALLOW, GLASSNODE WRITES, FUNDING RATES HAVE SOTHETEDED, AND PROFIT-Taking Is On the Rise with More than 92% of Suppply in Profit.
Options Traders Have Also Scaled Back Downside Hedges, Pushing Valativity Spreads Lower, Which Glassnode Warns Leaves The Market Exraged IF Risk Returns. The Core Message: Etfs and Futures Are Supporting The Rally, But Without Stronger Spot Flows, BTC Remains Vulnerable.
QCP Takes The Other Side.
The Singapore-Basted Desk Says Crypto is “Back on Track” after CPI ConfirMed Tariff-Peld Inflation With Major Surprises. They Highlight Five Consecutive Days of Sizeable Btc etf Inflows, Eth’s Biggest Inflow In Two Weeks, and Strenguth In XRP and Sol Even After Etf Delays.
Traders, they argue, are interpreting regulatory postponements as inevitability ratther than rejection. With the Altcoin Season Index at A 90-Day High, QCP SEES BTC Consolidation Above $ 115k As The Launchpad for Rotation Into Higher-Beta Assets.
The Divide Underscores How Bitcoin’s Current Range Near $ 115k – $ 116k Is a BattleGround. Glassnode Calls It Fragile Optimism; QCP Calls It Momentum. WHICH SIDE IS RIGHT MAY DEPEND ON WETHER ETF INFLOWS KEEP OFFITTING PROFIT-Taking in the Weeks Ahead.
(Coindesk)
Market MovementBTC: Bitcoin is Consolidating Near the $ 115,000 Level As Traders Square Positions Ahead of Expert Us Fed Policy Moves; Institutional Demand Via Spot Bitcoin Etfs Is Supporting Upside
Eth: Eth is Trading Near $ 4500 in A Key Resistance Band; Gains are Being Helped by Renewed Institutional Demand, Tightling Supple (Exchange Outflows), and Positive Technical Setups.
GOLD: Gold Continues to Hold Near Record Highs, Underpinned by Expectations of Fed Interest Rate Cuts, Inflation Risk, and Investor Demand for Safe Haavens; Gains Tempered Somewhat by Profit -Taking and A Firmer US Dollar
Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 Topped 45,000 for the FIRST TIME Monday, Leading Asia-Pacific Gains as Upbeat US-CCHINA Trade Talks and A Tiktok Dievestment Framework Lifted Sentiment.
S&P 500: The S&P 500 Rose 0.5% to Close Above 6.600 for The First Time on Monday as Upbeat US-CHINA Trade Talks and Anticipation of a Fed Meeting Lifted Stocks.
Elsewhere in Crypto
- Coinbase App Store Ranking Suggests Retail Still on Sidelines Despite Crypto Rally (The Block)
- Robinhood Expands Private Equity Token Push with New Venture Capital Fund (Coindesk)
- Strategy Adds $ 60 Million to Bitcoin Treasury in Smalest Buy in A MONTH (DECRYPT)
Network Activity Remains the Key Driver of Ether’s Value, But Much of the Recent Growth Has Been on Layer-2s, The Report Noted.
- Citi Predicts that Ether Will Fall to $ 4.300 by Year-End But Could Slide to $ 2,200 in The Bear Case or Rise to $ 6.400 In A Bullish Scenario.
- Layer-2 Growth Clouds Valination, with Citi Assuming Just 30% Pass-Through To Ethereum’s Base Layer, Leaving Current Prices Above Model Estimates.
- ETF Inflows are punking above their weight, but are expectioned to Stay Smaller than than Bitcoin’s.
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