“A fast reset in downside odds mirrors QCP’s warning of flat-footed pro desks, with Glassnode highlighting oversold momentum and moderating ETF outflows.”, — write: www.coindesk.com
Bitcoin’s slide into the low 90s has forced prediction markets into one of their fastest sentiment resets of the year, with traders abruptly abandoning upside scenarios and repricing the drawdown as a deeper structural break rather than a routine correction.
The shift marks a rare moment where retail and institutional bettors were caught off guard at the same time. Polymarket odds about bitcoin’s price by year’s end have swung hard toward further downside, reflecting a market that expected mild weakness rather than a multi-week selloff that erased most of bitcoin’s year-to-date gains.
In a recent note, QCP warned that even professional desks were not positioned for a weekly close below 100,000 or the loss of the 50-week moving average, calling the move a cycle-level inflection that traders are still digesting.
On-chain data from Glassnode shows similar stress, with oversold momentum, heavy realized losses, and moderating ETF outflows pointing to late-stage capitulation pressures as bitcoin trades in a zone where prior bottoms have formed.
But CryptoQuant argues in a recent note that the market is still missing the last ingredient for a true bottom, noting that realized losses remain virtually nonexistent and that long-term holders are still selling into strength.
For now, the market sits between early signs of exhaustion and the lack of capitulation that usually defines a durable floor, setting up a volatile stretch as traders decide which signal wins out.
Market MovementBTC: Bitcoin slipped to about 92,500 during the US session, down roughly 2% on the day and 27% from last month’s record high.
ETH: Ether held just above 3,000, easing about 2% over the past 24 hours and extending its weekly decline to roughly 15%.
Golden: Gold slipped to about $4,069 an ounce, down 0.3%, as fading expectations for a December Fed rate cut and a firmer dollar weighed on the metal after briefly pushing it above $4,100 earlier.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets fell Tuesday after a tech-led slide on Wall Street, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 0.92% as investors awaited Nvidia earnings and the September jobs report.
Elsewhere in Crypto
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- Ethereum Is the Opposite of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX, Says Vitalik Buterin (Decrypt)
- Man behind Barack Obama and Jeff Bezos Twitter hacks to repay over $5 million in stolen bitcoin (The Block)
- As of October 2025, GoPlus has generated $4.7M in total revenue across its product lines. The GoPlus App is the primary revenue driver, contributing $2.5M (approx. 53%), followed by the SafeToken Protocol at $1.7M.
- GoPlus Intelligence’s Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025, with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month.
- Since its January 2025 launch, the $GPS token has registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025. Monthly spot volume peaked in March 2025 at over $1.1B, while derivatives volume peaked the same month at over $4B.
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BTC has erased all year-to-date gains with the Monday decline, while crypto-related stocks like COIN, CRCL, MSTR, GLXY also plunged.
- Bitcoin fell to a fresh six-month low below $93,000, erasing all its 2025 gains and now 27% off its October record high.
- Stronger-than-expected economic data further diluted Fed rate cut expectations.
- Bitfinex analysts see a local bottom forming soon as short-term holders capitulate.
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