April Pce Falls to 2.1%, Boosting Odds Fed Will Hold Rates Stedy in Near Term

More Information in Our Economic Calendar. Personal Income and Spending Paint Mixed Demand Picture April Also Saw Personal Income Rise by 0.8%, While Disposable Income Posted An Identical 0.8% GAIN. However, Consumer Spending Rose Just 0.2%, A Slowdown from Prior MONTS. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Increated Only 0.1%, Indicating That After Adjusting for Inflation, SPEENDING GROWTH REMAINS MODEST.

The Deceleration in Goods Spending – Down $ 8.0 Billion – Was Offset by A $ 55.8 Billion Jump in Service Outlays. The Personal Saving Rate Ticked Up to 4.9%, Reflection Cautioous Consumer Behavior. Traders May Interpret this as a signal that consuumers are Holding Back Amid Persent Price Sensitivity and Interest Rate Pressures.

Trade Balance Improves Sharply in April, EASING GROWTH CONCERNS April’s Advance Trade Data Showed The US Goods deficit Narrowing to $ 87.6 Billion, A Steep Deckline from March’s $ 162.3 Billion ShortFall. Imports Droped $ 68.4 Billion While Exports Rose $ 6.3 Billion. This Reversal Could Support Q2 GDP Calculations and Allevate Recession Conceerns Tied to Weak External Demand Earlier in the Year.

However, March’s Final Trade Report SHOWED THE TOTAL GOODS AND SERVICES DEFICIT WIDENNING TO $ 140.5 Billion, Highlighting the Volatility in Monthly Trade Flows. Year-to-Date, The deficit have badooned Nearly 93% Compared to the Same Period in 2024, as Imports Surged More than 23%, Outpacing The 5.2% Gain In Exports.

Retail and Wholesale Inventories Signal Cautious Replenishment April’s Wholesale Inventories Remoned Flat, While Retail Inventories Dipped 0.1%. Year-Over-Year, Wholesale Stockpiles Are Up 2.1%, and Retail Inventories Rose 3.5%. TheSE Modest Changes Suggest Retailers and Distributors are cautiously Managing Supple in Light of Subdued Demand.

Market Outlook: Bullish for Bonds, Mixed for Equities The Lower Inflation Print and Improved Trade Balance Support A Bullish Short-Term View for Treasury Markets, As Traders Increase Bets on Stable or Even Lower Rates AHEAD. Equities May Respond with Mild Optimism, Particularly Rate-Sensitive Sectors Like Tech. However, The Slowing in Consumption and Persentic External Imbalances Temper The Broader Outlook, Keeping The Equity View Mixed Heading Into June.