“With the Sec Running on Skeleton Staff Durying The Prolonged US Government Shutdown, Crypto etf Reviews Are Effectiely Frozen. A weeks -long pause could Push Cardano’s Long-Awaited etf Decision Past ITS 2025 Deadline and Into the New Year.”, – WRITE: www.coindesk.com
After scrapping 19B-4 Filings and Approving “Generic Listening Standards” to Fast-Track Altcoin Etfs, Traders Are Betting 90% ODDS that Ada’s ETF Approval Wuld 2025.
But with A 36% CHANCE OF A MONTH-LONG GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN, that 10% “No” Side May Prove the Smarter Play as Even “Absurdly Fast” Approvals Can’t Happen Who’s Lights.
Access to the Sec’s Contingency Plan, Only About 390 Of ITS 4.200 Employees Remain on Duty, Focused Entirely on Emergencies and Market Monitoring Rather Thran Product.
ETF Issuers Can Still Submit Filings Through the Edgar System, The Contingency Plan Says, But No No Staff Are Availble to Review, Comment on, Or Accelerate atm. With all ipo reviews already halted, the same logjam Now Threatens to Stall the Wave of Altcoin Etfs that Were Were Expectioned to Move Forward Under the Sec’s NEW FAST.
A scan of government shutdown-reated Contracts Shows that Polymarket Bettors See Federal Operations Resuming AROUND LATE OCTOBER or EARLY NOVEMBER, WITHHLY OCTOBER 30.
(Polymarket)
(Polymarket)
For the Sec, That Timeline Means at Least Three More Weeks Without the Staff Needed to Review Filings or Advance PENDING CRYPTO ETFS LIKE CARDANO Docket, Plus The Usual Assortment of Approvals Needed for Traditional Finance Products.
Even if the agency radops by then, it will have only about eight work by the Christmas Slowdown, with Thanksgiving Further Cutting Into that Window.
In Extended Date Contracts, Polymarket Traders Now Assign Rughly A 31% CHANCE THAT The Shutdown Stretches Into November, Approaching The 35-Day Record Set in 2018-19.
(Polymarket)
A lapse of that lengh wold leave the Sec with Even Less Time to Clear a growing backlog that already includes halted ipo reviews, delayed enforcement caases, and theater stream. Filings.
There’s Certainly A CHANCE THAT ADA ETF GETS APROVED by the end of the year. It’s Impossible to Say Where It Is On the List of Considerations Before Agency Staff, But It’d Fair to Say It’s High on the List.
At the Same Time, Considering the Deadlock in Washington Reflected in Polymarket Odds, There’s Also A CHANCE THAT THAT THIS Drags on.
SO that 11% CHANCE OF THE ADA ETF ISN’T APROVED IN 2025? It May Not Be 100%, But The Odds of a Delay Are Clearly Higher than the Market Suggests.
Note: The Views Expressed in this Column Are Those of the Author and Do Not Necessarily Reflect Those of Coindesk, Inc. i Owners and Affilites.
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