“2025 is proving to be a difficult year for the cryptocurrency king. After months of growth and several all-time highs, the price of Bitcoin has fallen to nearly $80,000. The euphoria in the crypto market has died down, but BTC is in a zone that could lead to a resumption of growth. Is the bull trend ending after a sharp drop? In the Market Check section, we look at whether the technical situation has deteriorated and […]”, — write: businessua.com.ua
2025 is proving to be a difficult year for the cryptocurrency king. After months of growth and several all-time highs, the price of Bitcoin has fallen to nearly $80,000. The euphoria in the crypto market has died down, but BTC is in a zone that could lead to a resumption of growth. Is the bull trend ending after a sharp drop? In the Market Check section, we look at whether the technical and network situation has worsened for Bitcoin, and whether this signals the end of the bull trend. Let’s start!
Average loss purchase prices for short-term holders caused Bitcoin to plummet. During October, the price of Bitcoin fell below the average purchase price for short-term holders (orange line). This movement caused panic among these traders, and BTC sharply adjusted . Now the price is negotiable below the orange line .
A chart showing the realized price of short-term bitcoin holders. Source: Bitcoin Magazine Pro
From 2023 the price of BTC stopped the correction below the average purchase price of short-term owners. But buyers will have to react quickly, because if the price remains below the orange line can happen a scenario similar to 2022 . And in this case the bear phase can be much longer, than that observed since 2023.
The goal for Bitcoin is clear: it will be necessary restore the on-chain threshold which currently amounts to approx 105,000 dollars .
The price of Bitcoin has fallen sharply below the 365-day moving average At the beginning of November, BTC is insignificant jumped back from 365-day moving average (orange line). But unfortunately buyers were too weak and the price dropped sharply below the 365-day moving average . This is the first time since the beginning of the cycle that BTC has fallen so low below the orange line.
Different moving averages applied to Bitcoin. Source: Checkonchain
Despite this decline, moving averages the chart above still has bullish . The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization may recover, but it will need to do so quickly return above the 365-day moving average, that avoid scenario similar to 2022 .
Market sentiment is the lowest since February Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index (CFGI) has been in the area several times in recent months extreme euphoria . But after bitcoin down more than 35% fear dominates on the cryptocurrency market. The CFGI indicator recently fell to 10 the lowest level since February.
Graph of crypto fear and greed indicators. Source: Glassnode
According to this indicator, the king of cryptocurrencies is in period of excessive bear decline . And when CFGI is in the zone extreme fear we often observe significant rebounds bitcoin As at the beginning of the year, sellers may again run out of steam.
aSOPR indicates a potential bottom for BTC Indicator aSOPR (adjusted return on investment) on the network reads as follows:
- Above 1 : upward trend for Bitcoin (as in 2021)
- Below 1 : downward trend in value bitcoin (as in 2022)
Theoretically, to be in bullish trend according to this indicator, you need to stay behind horizontal line at mark 1 :
aSOPR and Bitcoin price since 2020. Source: Glassnode
The indicator has fallen below the black line, but it has already crossed this important level again. Thus, the situation resembles two previous corrections (at the beginning of 2025 and 2024). Now, according to aSOPR, the bullish trend remains unchanged but it is recommended to be careful and not spend more time below horizontal line at level 1. This may indicate weakening of the trend which has been observed since 2023.
Key points to remember The charts analyzed today indicate that the price of Bitcoin is potentially experiencing excessive bearish activity and that the bullish trend may not be over yet. However, the recovery for Bitcoin is still very weak and a return above the average short-term buy price for owners will be needed to signal the end of the correction.
STEADY LADS $100,000 PORTFOLIO MONITORING Distribution as of 11/26/25:
💵 Stablecoins: 59% — 💰 Cryptocurrencies: 41%
The Steady Lads portfolio remains balanced: Kara maintains a balanced allocation and keeps a large portion in stablecoins to survive the correction. If Bitcoin recovers to the $100,000 mark, a strategic reduction in exposure may be considered.
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Source: journalducoin.com
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