30-day truce: how real it is and what to wait on

Photo: Gettyimages.com

The agreements achieved between Ukrainian and American delegations in Saudi Arabia regarding the 30-day armistice are good at least by the fact that Ukraine and the United States have re-communicated, and the United States has resumed exchanged intelligence and military assistance to Ukraine. Perhaps this is a step towards peace talks. However, these agreements also raised many issues. Answers to them a journalist Briefly about He learned from Ukrainian political and military experts.

What is the value of these arrangements and what do they give to Ukraine? Why is only one month offered?

Igor Tyshkevich. Photo: FB Igor Tyshkevich

Igor Tyshkevich, Political analyst:

– The first important conclusion is the unlocked negotiated track Ukraine – USA. The second is the exit of our parts from Sudzhi in the Kursk Oblast is part of the previous arrangements. The third is the very fact of the consent of Kiev to the truce. And if Russia agrees to the truce, then we will get a stop of hostilities and get a break. But, most likely, it will be not one, but several such roars during peace talks. Although Russia will provoke Ukraine at this time to break the truce to expose it guilty of it. But in general, this process cannot be evaluated yet. Positive is a ceasefire, and on the other hand, these are challenges for Ukrainian foreign policy.

Why one month for a truce? One day, there will be little week. To demand more – in the current situation is unrealistic. That is why they stopped for one month.

Will Russia agree to the truce and what can be the arguments for and against? What next?

Vladimir Fesenko. Photo: FB Oleksiy Panych

Vladimir Fesenko, The head of the Center for Applied Political Studies “Penta”:

– For Putin, these arrangements in Jiddi are a really difficult choice and a problem. If you just agree to the truce, it will look like a manifestation of weakness and victory of Americans. And now, Russian-patriotic publications call calls not to agree to the truce. But Putin is important to continue the negotiation process with Trump. So the most likely scenario that Putin will agree to peace talks, but with a number of previous conditions for Ukraine. For example, Ukraine should withdraw troops from the Kursk region. These may be unacceptable requirements for Ukraine – to give Kharkiv, Kherson, Zaporozhye. But such requirements will definitely be.

The duration of peace talks depends on many circumstances. For example, Trump said that peace could be reached for Easter. Why? Because after Easter – the beginning of May comes 100 days of Trump’s reign, and for him it is a sacred date. To show that he has achieved great success on the international track. Therefore, Trump will seek to end the war faster. And we have a common position in this matter with the United States.

But for Putin this is a problem. Either he will continue to flutter with Trump, or the US president will be disappointed in the Russian dictator, and the negotiation process will go to a dead end. There is another problem – they can agree on a ceasefire for 30 days, and then the history of the Minsk agreements can be repeated when this termination was constantly violated by the Russian side.

Will this stop the war in the future?

Ivan Stupak. Photo: FB Ivan Stupak

Ivan Stupak, Expert of the Ukrainian Institute of the Future:

– The positive is that representatives of the USA and Ukraine met and reached some arrangements. But it is like in the theater: to come and get a number in the wardrobe – only the beginning of the process of peaceful settlement. We do not know how Russia will react whether it will take a truce and further steps or not. She may refuse this, agrees or agrees, nominating unacceptable conditions. Moscow can delay. Therefore, it will be a very long process, and peace should not be expected in the near future.

What is the prospect of resolving territorial disputes?

Alexander Kovalenko. Photo: x.com/zloy_odessit

Alexander Kovalenko, Military-Political Expert:

– Currently, we have shown the first step for our American partners that we are ready for the first stage of negotiations – ceasefire. And the Americans were satisfied with this and restored the supply of weapons and explored Kiev. Therefore, it is not raised about territorial issues so far. Yes, we know that Putin is demanding to give him four of our regions, and as if Americans do not exclude Kiev territorial concessions to him. But! Our delegation has played a very interesting maneuver by turning the ball into the field of Russia. Now the Kremlin must approve or not to approve the truce.

But the Russian Federation is not ready for it now, because it has unresolved issues in the Kursk region and in Ukraine, where it has an offensive. That is, Russia can not go to a truce now, and when it says no, it will hit Trump’s authority and only becomes angry with narcissism. He can be disappointed in Putin. Therefore, serious changes from Americans can occur in territorial concessions.

As for this issue, we are ready for territorial compromises. We give Russia parts of its Kursk region, and they are part of the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions. But the main thing is that there is no return on our territories.

Will the Liquid Earth -Earths Agreement keep its importance?

Igor Reityrovich. Photo: FB Ihor Reiterovych

Igor Reitrovich, International expert:

– Yes, it will remain an important element of our cooperation with the United States. And this contract will be signed. But it will be a purely economic agreement that is very favorable by Trump billions of income. But there will be no mention of Ukraine’s security guarantees. This will be the subject of individual arrangements, depending on the development of events on the settlement of war in Ukraine.

America is our friends again or Trump remains unpredictable?

Taras Zagorodniy. Photo: FB Taras Zaharodniy

Taras Zagorodniy, International expert:

– Trump can and continue to dictate our conditions. But it presses both public opinion within the United States and in the world. The US military begins to oppose it. The last scandal – the cousin of Vice -Cresident Di Vens fought in Ukraine and declared cNN live that the US and Russia could not be friends. He said: “I fought and saw that these are absolutely unhappy people, and later they would shoot the Americans.” Vice -resident Di Vens had to be justified.

In addition, the American press begins to press on Trump, which he does not like. And he is a person with hypertrophied enlarged ego, and when he is shown that he is not the main one, it removes him. Europeans supported Ukraine. Therefore, Trump will have to concede to our country.

Source: kp.ua