“The year 2025 brought Ukraine many reasons for discussion. The news poured in, as if from a cornucopia, and most often it was not very pleasant. Most likely, 2026 will be the same. The state is already faced with many questions: where to find money, what will happen with negotiations and support for Ukraine, what will be the international, domestic and front-line situation, etc. Population as well”, — write on: ua.news
The year 2025 brought Ukraine many reasons for discussion. The news poured in, as if from a cornucopia, and most often it was not very pleasant. Most likely, 2026 will be the same.
Many questions are already facing the state: where to find money what will happen with negotiations and support for Ukraine, what will be the international, domestic and frontline situation, etc. The population also faces similar challenges, but already at its own level: what will happen to the prices of products and utilities, will there be work, what will the situation be with light and heat in homes, will mobilization be intensified, at what speed will the front move, etc.
However, probably no question worries Ukrainians as much as one: when the war will end ? After all, it is war that is the key factor of instability, it “poisons” society and the state, and also daily leads to more and more losses: both human and material.
So are there any chances that the dream peace will finally come in 2026? Edition UA.News discussed the issue together with politicians and experts.
Peace or war in 2026: what politicians say
Estimates of whether there is a chance for the war to end next year vary widely from speaker to speaker. What can be said when in some places the same politicians say mutually exclusive things literally with a difference of one or two days. However, in general, if you follow the rhetoric of the Ukrainian leader and Western leaders, you can see that they have recently been cautiously positive about the chances of peace.
Yes, as of now they are continuing active negotiations between the Ukrainian and American sides. Against this background, the president Volodymyr Zelenskyi declares that the difficult but constructive work on the future peace continues. According to him, relevant documents are already being prepared, although the head of state does not disclose details. However, he recently stated that there are chances for peace in 2026, and the documents regarding security guarantees (a fundamentally important issue for Ukraine) are “90%” ready.
“In my opinion, everything possible that we should have done for the first drafts is already there. All this looks decent enough today. The first developments are almost 90% ready. These are precisely the details that are important to us: what our army and Ukraine can count on after signing (peace — ed.), how strong we can be.” – noted Zelensky.
However, the president’s words must be taken with a certain degree of criticism. After all, he has been consistently saying that “next year there is a chance to end the war” since the end of 2022 – and the calendar is already almost 2026…
Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany Friedrich Mertz somewhat more careful in his words. He regularly states that Russia is preparing to fight Europe, and therefore Germany and the entire EU should more actively prepare their own armed forces in case of conflict. It is difficult to call the German leader an optimist in this matter. However, recently he said which sees a “small chance” for a “ceasefire” (not peace!) in Ukraine in 2026.
“We have a chance for a real peace process (in 2026 — ed.). It is still small, but real… We worked for weeks to reach a truce. Now that everyone knows the price of war, it’s time to talk about the price of peace.” Mertz noted.
Against this background, the president of France Emmanuel Macron takes a more “hawkish” position. He regularly repeats that Putin does not want peace – although just the other day he said that Paris wants to resume dialogue with Moscow. Macron too said that his country will never support “peace at the expense of Ukraine”. As for the end of the war, according to the French leader, it may happen “by 2027”.
“I hope that peace will be achieved by 2027. And I believe that the last months have been marked by decisions that have become real turning points.” Macron is confident.
President of Finland Alexander Stubb known, on the one hand, as a “hawk”, on the other – as an optimist regarding a peaceful settlement. Inside December he stated that “the time has come for peace” and that the “critical stage” of the negotiations is currently underway. Also, the Finnish leader is sure that the peace agreement is already 95% ready. Stubb did not specify where he got such information.
“We have almost achieved everything, but the most difficult 5% (before the peace agreement – ed.) still remain.” – believes Stubb.
At the same time, the president of Finland is sure that Ukraine should not give up its territories under any circumstances. We will remind that Finland itself after the Winter War of 1939-40 ceded almost 10% of its territory to the USSR, recognized this at the official level, refused to return the lands and established pragmatic economic relations with Moscow.
The most important optimist on the planet remains the president of the USA Donald Trump. He is constantly comments the progress of peace negotiations and makes positive statements every time. According to the American leader, who clearly wanted to achieve peace before Christmas according to the Western rite, there is a “very good chance” that the war will end in 2026. However, sometimes insecurity breaks through him, and sometimes Trump says that he “doesn’t know” whether it will be possible to reconcile Ukraine and Russia.
“Negotiations on Ukraine and Russia are ongoing… I hope we can sort it out. We are negotiating, the negotiations are going well. We have solved all these wars. The only ones I haven’t decided yet are Ukraine and Russia… I’ll do whatever it takes. I wish it would stop.” Trump said literally today, Tuesday, December 23.
Many people are already laughing at the optimism of the US president – a kind of “laughter through tears”. However, we should not forget that the position of the American president is one in which words do not reflect reality, but shape it. So it is possible that even Trump’s optimistic rhetoric is slowly but surely bringing peace closer.
After all, it is impossible to complete this block without the key culprit and aggressor in this war— Vladimir Putin. And his statements definitely do not give reason for even the most cautious optimism. Recently, he drew a direct line, where he declared that Russia, after all, allegedly would like “to have no conflicts” in 2026. Moscow is also allegedly “ready for negotiations.” However, this is hardly more than ordinary political rhetoric. Just before that, Putin repeatedly repeated that “the goals of the SVO will be fulfilled.” Actually, this is his key program for 2026.
The end of the war in 2026: the opinions of experts
Political scientist, director of the Ukrainian Institute of Politics Ruslan Bortnik believes that there are chances for peace in 2026. But all this depends on a number of factors.
“I think there are chances for the war to end in 2026. Important: this is how we talk about the armistice. Because the complete end of the war in 2026 is extremely unlikely. But the achievement of some kind of truce, perhaps at least a temporary one, has more chances, and today I estimate them at around 30% during 2026. Everything will depend on how the parties assess their resources, their possibilities for continuing the war, everything will depend on the situation at the front, on internal stability and on the ability of the parties to maintain external support: for Ukraine, this is Western aid, for Russia, the Chinese factor. But still, the level of losses, the level of exhaustion of the parties and the American pressure – and Trump will be in a hurry, he wants to achieve a result before the congressional elections by the fall of 2026 – will create prerequisites and certain chances for ending or at least suspending the active phase of hostilities. Also, a lot depends on public opinion. If public pressure on the authorities in Russia and Ukraine increases with the aim of ending hostilities and reaching a peace agreement, then the likelihood of peace will also increase.” Ruslan Bortnik is confident.
Political scientist, director of the “Third Sector” center Andriy Zolotaryov notes: 2026 will be the period when the war will continue. At the same time, two parallel processes will continue: negotiations will continue, but the war will still continue.
“Unfortunately, this is so, because there are almost no prerequisites for a quick end to the war. Everyone has their own reasons. It will be very difficult for Zelensky to accept even Trump’s conditions, to present them to society as a victory. Putin believes that he will achieve much more through military action than through political means. Under such conditions, and taking into account the fact that Ukraine received support from European countries in the amount of 90 billion, I think that the next six months are unlikely to end hostilities. Unfortunately, we will continue to lose territories, and we will continue to lose people, and we will continue to lose the remnants of the economy. Maybe something will change in the second half of 2026.” – says the expert.
According to him, each side has its reasons. For example, it is important for Europe that Ukraine buys time until the EU can rearm and modernize its military equipment.
“Trump, if it is not possible to reach a compromise, may lose interest in these negotiations altogether and switch to other issues such as the conflict with Venezuela or something else. By-elections to Congress and the Senate will also be held in the fall, where Trump risks losing the Republican majority. If this happens in at least one ward, he will turn into a lame duck. Perhaps this is what the leaders of European countries are counting on: that after that it will be possible to push Trump into Biden’s agenda. But we must not forget that all this will happen at the expense of Ukraine, unfortunately.” Andriy Zolotaryov summarized.
Summing up, we can say with a high degree of confidence: the war is unlikely to end in 2026, no matter how much we all want it. As long as all the key parties to the conflict (except the US) have a basic attitude that they will be able to achieve more on the battlefield than on the diplomatic front, we should hardly expect any “miracle of peace”. And generally there are no “miracles” in such things as war, politics and geopolitics. It is high time for Ukrainians to grow up and accept this simple fact.
The government needs to speak honestly with the people and outline the prospects as they really are, not in fantasies or public speeches written by speechwriters. Social psychology has repeatedly proven that “emotional swings” and life in constant stress and expectation are very dangerous factors for the general stability of societies. When people hear for a whole year that “peace is about to come” and then it doesn’t come, while the war only intensifies, the risks of depression, apathy, total disillusionment, and complete loss of motivation multiply.
So no matter how much you want it to be the other way around, 2026 will most likely be another year of war — unfortunately.
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