“Closer to the summer in Ukraine, the risk of electricity shortages increases. In addition to the fact that the system under constant Russian shelling will also be added factors such as repair of NPP units, unregulated pricing policy in the market and traditional increase in consumption through heat.ua.news tells whether large -scale fan -shaped power is threatened by Ukrainians.”, – WRITE ON: ua.news
Closer to the summer in Ukraine, the risk of electricity shortages increases. In addition to the fact that the system under constant Russian shelling will also be added factors such as repair of NPP units, unregulated pricing policy in the market and traditional increase in consumption through heat.
UA.News tells whether large -scale fan lights are threatening to Ukrainians in the summer and in which regions they should be expected.
The state of Ukraine’s energy system
Electricity production. More than half of electricity in the country continue to generate nuclear power plants, despite the fact that the country has lost its largest in Europe – the Zaporozhye NPP.
In the structure of electricity production as of April 2025, NPPs provided 53.2%. The share of thermal power plants (TPPs) and thermal power plants (CHP) was 32%. Renewable energy sources (RES) covered about 11% of needs.
By by an assessment The former Ministry of Energy Olga Buslavts, in the middle of May, the situation in the Ukrainian energy system looked like:
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Six NPPs, located in the non -industrial territories, operate in the power system of Ukraine. One nuclear power unit was included in the work after repair. Three power units are in repair.
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The production of electricity of hydroelectric power plants is significantly limited by the existing water resource.
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The production of electricity at TPP and CHP was reduced after the repair of the NPP unit.
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The total level of coal reserves at power plants is almost 2.6 million tons.
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The production of RES electricity decreased, in particular the solar generation has fallen due to cloudy weather.
As for inventory natural gas In Ukrainian PGG, their total level reached 6.1 billion m3 (including 4.7 billion m3 of gas gas gas), which is 31%below last year.
Abnormally high prices. In Ukraine in early May price electricity In the daily market (RDN) reached The highest level in Europe is 113 €/MWh*h. In the same period in Germany, the cost of electricity was 56, in France-15, in Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Hungary-70-75 €/MWh. Viewer estimates, the high price of electricity in Ukraine is not typical for May, when demand for it is usually low and surplus is observed on the market.
Is Fan Disabling in Summer – Experts Assessment
Atomic energy plays a key role for the balanced operation of the energy system. Approximately, which even now, in the summer there will be 3-4 nuclear blocks, notes Volodymyr Omelchenko, Director of Energy and Infrastructure Programs of the Razumkov Center. He explains how the lack of electricity can be closed during peak periods of consumption over the following months.
“A particularly large deficiency of electricity can be formed in July in early August, when the heat will be. At this time, it is necessary that Ukraine is able to buy imported electricity to cover this deficit. The only problem is price capes (marginal prices for electricity).
If the NERC ECP solves this problem, then any planned shutdowns are not envisaged, provided that Russia will not be fired at large power plants again.
Therefore, the key, so that there are no shutdowns and restrictions, in the summer it is necessary to urgently review and regulate the issues of price-keps in the electricity market, in the RDN market (the market per day ahead) “– Vladimir Omelchenko is convinced.
This summer, the work of the system is complicated by the fact that hydroelectric power plants will not be able to cover its peak loads, this opinion is maintained Oleg Popenko, chairman of the Utility Consumer Union.
“The situation in the energy system is not critical, but to some extent complicated. This is due to Russian shelling, lack of sufficient gas, population debt and many other factors. In particular, we do not have about 2 billion cubic meters of gas … Despite the fact that gas is not just the heating season. We cover peak loads on the power system purely due to gas. Since hydropower is not handling this in connection with the weather conditions that have occurred because of the low amount of snow, ” – says Popenko.
With regard to fan switches of electricity in the summer, according to the expert, such a scenario is possible only in certain circumstances and to a lesser extent will affect household consumers.
“The population will be disconnected in the summer. Initially, if they are, the hourly will limit the supply of electricity for business. As it was in 2023, when shopping centers have limited electricity consumption for some time. That is, the escalators, elevators, lighting on the premises were disconnected.
Under what conditions can electricity disconnect this summer be possible? If the temperature is held 30 and above several weeks. In such circumstances, they can restrict just business and even the population. But not all over Ukraine. First of all in the regions that suffer the most from shelling: Kyiv, Kyiv region, Odesa, Odesa region, Lviv, frontier cities ”, – the expert predicts.
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