“The mass return of Ukrainians from abroad is expected no earlier than 2027 and will take place slowly — approximately 100,000 people per year. Even after the improvement of the security situation, a large part of citizens may remain in Europe. Such a forecast was published by the National Bank of Ukraine. Even if the active phase of the war ends, Ukrainians will not be in a hurry to return home en masse. About this”, — write on: ua.news
The mass return of Ukrainians from abroad is expected no earlier than 2027 and will take place slowly – approximately 100,000 people per year. Even after the improvement of the security situation, a large part of citizens may remain in Europe. Such a forecast was published by the National Bank of Ukraine.
Even if the active phase of the war ends, Ukrainians will not be in a hurry to return home en masse. This is stated in the inflation report of the National Bank of Ukraine. The regulator predicts that the tangible return of citizens from abroad will begin only in 2027 and will be gradual.
According to NBU estimates, in 2025 the net outflow of the population from Ukraine will amount to about 200,000 people. In 2026, this trend will remain at approximately the same level. A net return is expected only in 2027 — approximately 100,000 Ukrainians. This is five times less than previously predicted.
The key factor holding back returns remains security. Even without active hostilities, the risks of missile strikes, shelling and terrorist attacks will remain, including in peaceful regions of the country. The National Bank emphasizes that it is these threats that influence people’s decision to stay abroad. Another reason is the living conditions in the countries of the European Union. Temporary protection, the possibility of legal employment, access to education and social services reduce the motivation to quickly return to Ukraine. Even after the improvement of the security situation, some Ukrainians may choose a more stable life abroad.
The report notes that extending periods of stay in the EU or switching to long-term residence regimes “is very likely to deter the active return of migrants.” Slow economic recovery in Ukraine remains an additional factor.
At the same time, the National Bank revised the previous forecasts of migration in the direction of deterioration. If earlier it was expected that about 200,000 people would return to Ukraine in 2026, now this figure has been postponed to 2027 and halved. The total number of migrants was also adjusted to take into account the updated UN methodology.
It was previously reported that in the fall of 2025, the rate of departure of Ukrainians abroad increased sharply. At the same time, the State Border Service announced a decrease in passenger traffic and even recorded periods when the number of people entering Ukraine exceeded the number of departures.
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