What does the Kremlin want? Preobrazhensky – about the state of the Russian economy, Putin’s readiness for negotiations and the situation in power

The conclusion of the elections in the USA and the election of Donald Trump as the president is launching a new political phase of the Russian-Ukrainian war. About how the newly elected American leader and his team see Russia, whether the head of the Kremlin is really ready for negotiations with Ukraine and a pause in the war, as well as whether Trump has real levers of pressure and arguments for Vladimir Putin, NV spoke with Ivan Preobrazhensky , a political scientist originally from Russia, who has been living in Prague

— What did Trump’s victory mean for Russia and what signals is the Kremlin trying to broadcast abroad?

— Well, the main signal is satisfaction, which Putin demonstrated at the Valdai conference. But this is an external reaction, as if this is exactly what the Russian authorities wanted. The second reaction is the reaction of conventional propagandists and analysts who say in bewilderment: “We don’t understand what will happen next at all.” On the one hand, they are sure that Trump will cut aid to Ukraine, and this makes them very happy. On the other hand, they have absolutely no idea what else he’s going to do, because he can start doing absolutely anything, including things that Biden didn’t dare to do.

Trump is an energy lobbyist, so he can seriously attack Russian liquefied gas and oil so that American oil and gas will take their place. It is not difficult, there would be a desire. Previously, the Biden administration did not want high prices for oil and gas. And for Trump, on the contrary, this is a profitable situation, because the higher the prices, the easier it will be for American gas, which is not the cheapest, and American oil to enter world markets.

— Is it already clear who in Trump’s entourage Russia is betting on in Washington?

— It is too early to judge, not all appointments are clear, but it is clear that they hope for Elon Musk. He has called Putin several times over the past year, and is very clear about the need to cut support for Ukraine.

In this sense, Russia’s hopes are most likely mistaken. Musk is making the same mistake he did [російський олігарх] Boris Berezovsky in Russia, when he believed that he had elected Putin and could count on special attention. The mistake that Ihor Kolomoiskyi made in Ukraine, when, as he believed, he elected Volodymyr Zelenskyi and therefore can increase his political influence. Accordingly, Musk believes that he elected Trump and has the right to govern.

However, people like Putin or Trump may feel some gratitude, but only if this gratitude is not obsessive. And if a person insists on the fact that he needs to show this gratitude, and also tries to interfere in matters that do not really concern him, then it is unlikely that he will last long.

— The latest report by Russian economists opposed to the Kremlin that the Russian economy is steadily degrading, but it can last in this state for quite a long time, sounds pessimistic. At the same time, the head of GUR Kyrylo Budanov believes that a certain exhaustion of Russia will come already in the middle of 2025. Could Russia really have real reasons to look for a pause in the war in the middle of 2025?