“Ukrainian Eurobonds have jumped 12% over the past month on investor expectations that the election of Donald Trump as US president will end the Russian-Ukrainian war and increase Ukraine’s ability to pay back debts to creditors. The Financial Times writes about it. During the election campaign, Trump promised that he would quickly end the war in Ukraine. Ukrainian bonds maturing in 2036 increased from 44”, — write on: ua.news
Ukrainian Eurobonds have jumped 12% over the past month on investor expectations that the election of Donald Trump as US president will end the Russian-Ukrainian war and increase Ukraine’s ability to pay back debts to creditors.
The Financial Times writes about it.
During the election campaign, Trump promised that he would quickly end the war in Ukraine.
Ukrainian bonds maturing in 2036 rose from 44 to 49 cents on the dollar over the past month, GDP warrants rose even more sharply.
Ukrenergo’s bonds have risen more than 160% this year to 67 cents on the dollar, despite Russia’s renewed attacks on infrastructure.
The increase comes just two months after Kyiv completed the restructuring of more than $20 billion of debt in one of the fastest and largest public debt procedures in modern history.
According to the newspaper, bond investors are betting that Trump will quickly end the war, Ukraine will agree to a peace agreement with the loss of part of the territory, after which the Ukrainian economy will quickly recover.
“The bulk of the trade is really based on the expectation that the war will be over, or at least the likelihood that Trump will be able to start negotiations,” said Thies Louv, a portfolio manager at Ninety One, which owns Ukrainian bonds.
At the same time, not all investors in the market are as optimistic as Ninety One. Federated Hermes portfolio manager Mohammed Elmi expressed skepticism about the possibility of a quick peace agreement. In addition, there are questions about the state of Ukraine’s economy after the negotiations and whether they will be a priority for the new White House administration.
“Trump has a big political agenda and a lot of work. These negotiations can also be quite long,” he said.
We will remind that after the first shock reactions of the markets to the victory of Donald Trump, investors began to analyze how the potential control of the Republicans over the government will affect stocks, bonds and currencies.
The Chinese yuan and shares of Chinese companies fell sharply against the background of the presidency of Donald Trump, which threatens to increase tensions on issues of trade and technology.
Meanwhile, the euro fell significantly after the victory of Donald Trump in the US elections. It is expected that in the future the exchange rate of the euro will return to parity with the dollar, i.e. to a ratio of 1:1.
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