“Ukraine will join the EU by 2030.” EU Ambassador to Ukraine Katarina Maternova – about the future of Ukrainians, changes in the USA and investments after the war

The conversation took place within the framework of the NV event “Ukraine 2050. Dialogues about the future”

So, the European Unionofficially started negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the EU. However, European leaders assess our prospects in different ways. In addition, the US has a newly elected president who has made it clear that he may reduce cooperation with Europe in the fields of economy and security. How do you assess the situation for Kyiv in such conditions?

I worked with Ukraine for almost 10 years before I became the ambassador of the European Union here. And I remember very well all kinds of meetings and summits of the Association and the Council between the EU and Ukraine, at which we tried to maneuver in a certain sense – on the one hand, demonstrating cooperation, but at the same time not giving any special commitments regarding the integration of Ukraine into the European Union.

Personally, I am actually sad that it was the Russian invasion and brutal aggression of the Russian Federation that forced a change in the perception of the situation. But sometimes, in order to change the paradigm, some difficult events, a crisis, are really necessary. I remember that on February 28, 2022, we were busy trying to get bulletproof vests for our Ukrainian friends, and at that very moment we learned that President Zelensky had applied to join the EU. It was a bit unexpected. Something like, “Wait, is that what you’re thinking right now?”

But that really became the point where this paradigm shift happened. The Ukrainian leadership and Ukrainian society started a struggle against Russian aggression, and at the same time they declared that they wanted to move towards the EU. I think it was a very important moment. Even five years ago, I could not even imagine that this was possible. And now I am glad that we are on this path. Ukraine has already passed a kind of sprint distance: first it was a candidate country, then there was the second step, the third, the fourth, finally, the official opening of accession negotiations.

Photo: Serhiy Kantsyrenko/NV

Now we are already in the marathon phase of Ukraine’s accession to the EU. Two weeks ago, I presented the Prime Minister and the Speaker of the Council with the latest enlargement report, which is very positive for Ukraine. It does not record huge historical changes, but it shows us that progress has been made in a very difficult and difficult part of our divisions. With one exception, progress has been made in each of them, and there is no area where there has been a rollback. Which in itself is great — because it’s happening during the historic struggle you’re waging against Russia. It’s also great that you are really moving forward in the sometimes, perhaps very boring, areas of compliance with EU laws and regulations.

As before, I predict that Ukraine will become a member of the EU by the end of the decade

The world around us is very uncertain right now, and I think we will experience an even higher degree of uncertainty for some time., and it will persist for some time after the change of power in the United States. But it seems to me that some of the appointments in the sphere of the foreign policy establishment are actually encouraging. Soon we will see who will make up the full entourage of the US president on Ukraine issues. There are different voices. But I actually think that in Congress, as before, a bipartisan majority will remain, which will support the Ukrainian struggle. We will soon see to what extent. Meanwhile, European support remains very strong.

Which appointments in the new US administration seem encouraging to you?

Currently, the name of the president’s adviser on national security is known, and there is a candidate for the secretary of state. Both are experienced foreign policy and security professionals.

Photo: Serhiy Kantsyrenko/NV

I once asked you a question about how much time Ukraine needs to join the EU. You then replied that if the war ends in 2024, it will take another five years. Has your opinion changed since then?

I’m not sure about the occasion “of average indicators”. In fact, if we talk about Lithuania, Latvia and Slovakia, they officially started negotiations in 2000 and joined the EU in 2004. And the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Estonia, Slovenia started negotiations about a year and a half earlier, so in this case it took 5.5 years. Croatia joined the EU later, Bulgaria and Romania also later. It is difficult to distinguish the middle period.

In any case, it is already obvious that the war in Ukraine, unfortunately, will not end this year.

Yes, you are right, but I still predict that Ukraine will become a member of the EU by the end of the decade. This forecast was also made by the outgoing President of the European Council, Charles Michel, so I even have it “cover’ for this assessment.

You see, there are two aspects in the process of EU enlargement, in the case of Ukraine there are even three of them. The first of them is the war, the second is the technical part – the negotiations themselves, and then there is the political part, which is the ratification of the decision by all EU member states. That is, all this must be ratified in some form. In some cases, the decision is ratified by the national parliament, in others by the executive.

In addition, the expansion of the European Union beyond the current format of 27 countries is also a difficult process, because you cannot expand indefinitely without reforming the system itself. Therefore, it will be necessary to make changes in the decision-making process, in the composition of the board, and also in all kinds of decisions, which are not easy to make, if you are not under pressure. Therefore, there is a question of legitimate absorption by the EU.

Photo: Serhiy Kantsyrenko/NV

So not all problems come from the side of the candidate, in this case Ukraine. They are also from the side of the European Union, and let’s be honest, EU enlargement is not a topic without controversy and contradictions.

This is a controversial topic, and there are always many skeptics. We all see the rise of the far-right in many countries in Europe, which can lead to the trends we are seeing these days—increasing isolationism, more closure, so all of that needs to be addressed.

Something will have to be overcome, something will have to be explained – we will have to continue to prove why having Ukraine among our fellow citizens is actually in the interests of European citizens. But I firmly believe that with Ukraine in our ranks, we will be stronger, more innovative and certainly more viable and safe. But this process will not be easy.

Yes, but your prediction that Ukraine can and should become a member of the EU by 2030 is very inspiring. This means that I will have time to become an EU citizen without leaving Ukraine, which seemed impossible four years ago. What are the benefits of EU membership for Ukraine? Can you highlight two or three points?

First of all, you become part of the largest economic bloc in the world, within which companies can conduct free trade with each other. EU students can study wherever they want – my son grew up in Belgium and now studies in Spain, which is perfectly normal for EU citizens. People here are free to work abroad. And, having Ukraine in our ranks, we will also become much stronger in terms of security, as I have already mentioned. I think these are the biggest advantages.

In which areas has Ukraine demonstrated significant progress within the process of joining the EU, and in which areas is it still lagging behind?

I think that significant progress has been made in the field of digitization. Ukraine is actually a leader in the field of digital government, and this is the area in which we have made the most progress in discussions about Ukraine’s accession to the EU. In this regard, there will soon be an opportunity to enter the EU internal market in a number of digital services – we will start with roaming, but soon after that other digital services will follow. I think that in the field of defense and defense innovation, you are also leaders in many ways.

We have to be leaders.

Yes, that’s true. Ukraine has also made great progress in environmental regulation, but it is clear that much of this will not be implemented until the war is over. I think you have made great progress in what we call “basic principles”, that is, in matters of the rule of law, fighting corruption, reforming the judicial system, the prosecutor’s office. But this is an area in which work still needs to be continued, because you are still halfway there. But I want to emphasize that a lot has already been done, anti-corruption institutes have been created, they are staffed and functioning, they are gaining experience. But here too we need to move on.

Photo: Serhiy Kantsyrenko/NV

I also think that a lot of progress has been made in the whole area of ​​business regulation, business standards, the environment, but it still needs to be continued.

What is the most serious objection that Ukraine has to overcome in order to join the EU?

The war must be won.

Yes, this is a problem for all of us, even without joining the EU. We observed how key partners and allies, such as Poland, were very supportive of Ukraine’s European integration aspirations. But we also saw that this attitude has changed — for example, in Poland there is a fear of competition from Ukrainian agricultural companies. How serious an obstacle can this fear of competition from some Central European states become on the path of Ukraine’s accession to the EU?

It sounds like the ultimate deja vu to me. This is exactly what we ourselves had to go through. I mean Slovakia, Poland, the Czech Republic. Only then was the threat posed by Polish plumbers who could fill France, Spain, and Italy.

And now they are Ukrainian farmers.

And now they are Ukrainian farmers. Believe me, at one time Polish farmers and Czech truck drivers were a threat. It’s complete deja vu. And here the leaders should join in order to explain and overcome this reaction of society and business. And this is what I tell my colleagues in Brussels about – I explain that in Ukraine there was already a rehearsal of what will happen, because we unilaterally opened the internal European market for Ukrainian products as soon as the war started. And we had this corresponding reaction.

But that is exactly why we need to explain and overcome disinformation and narratives directed against Ukraine’s accession to the EU. Especially from your big neighbor, who is of course happily fueling this discontent in the EU and who is behind a lot of misinformation about what Ukraine’s presence in the European Union will mean. And as I said, the explanation is that the EU enlargements of 2004, 2007 and 2013 were economically extremely successful and useful for the European economy as a whole.

But this does not mean that some deformations cannot occur on the ground, which will be felt especially by the countries bordering you. And that is why the EU has developed local guarantees that can protect local businesses to some extent on a temporary basis. You just have to understand that you are a big country, you have a very strong agricultural production, which will become much stronger in the future, and this will be seen as both an opportunity and a threat. But there is nothing new in this. This is what happens with each wave of expansion.

By the way, about our neighbors. I think that anyone who visits Warsaw now can see how much progress the country has made in the last 20 years. Indeed, EU membership means access to the huge EU market, funding for infrastructure, and a large amount of foreign investment. If we talk about the success story of Poland or, for example, the Czech Republic or your native Slovakia, what is the share of EU membership in it — 20%, 50%?

I would say 50%. And I’m not only talking about funding, subsidies from the EU. I would put it last. Yes, it had a huge impact on Poland in terms of infrastructure development – especially in the east, we see the benefits of this when we cross the border with Ukraine. But the remaining 50% are the reforms we carried out when communism fell.

Poland has experienced an extremely difficult situation with hyperinflation and very difficult reforms. In Czechoslovakia, we went through similar complex macro-reforms and structural reforms. Therefore, all countries went through comprehensive economic and institutional reforms. But the prospect of membership in the EU became a big incentive for us to be able to carry out these reforms. So for us it was a political fuel for reforms and for transformation in general.

And the last question. We all know that even before the war Ukraine was not a magnet for foreign investment, and it is obvious that after the war it will be in desperate need of investment. What are the prospects of post-war Ukraine from the point of view of state funding and private investments from the EU. Can these two factors become the driving forces of Ukrainian growth?

They must become the driving forces, as there is no possibility of financing reconstruction from public sources alone. I mean, now you are already receiving a lot of money for the stabilization of the country, for the budget, as well as military aid. You also receive financial support for the restoration of destroyed infrastructure, because Ukrainian schools, hospitals have been bombed, bridges blown up But in order to carry out post-war reconstruction, to overcome the destruction caused by the Russians, private capital is needed. Once the war is over, private capital won’t feel so scared, and if the business environment continues to improve, it will work.

You will also have to overcome the Russian narrative that Ukraine is the most corrupt country in the world. This is of course not true, but this perception exists and it still holds many people back. But all the positive things come together — continuation of reforms, improvement of the business environment, other changes; and when the sense of risk of war disappears, it will greatly attract investment. After all, unlike most countries — say, my native country — you are actually a big market. Therefore, you will have both domestic investments that will look for your specialized workforce, of which there are many here, and companies that are interested in Ukraine as a market in itself. I come from a country with a population of 5 million people, and this is not exactly a market that will interest anyone, but Ukraine has these advantages. Plus, Ukraine’s assets are huge. These are mineral wealth, chernozem, innovative potential, digital skills, human capital, as well as educational and engineering traditions that are well developed in your country.

Photo: NV