“Donald Trump, who will become the 47th president of the United States in a few hours, has repeatedly stated his desire to end the war in Ukraine as soon as possible. However, the only peace plan that was discussed publicly is, in fact, a freeze on the conflict. This opinion was expressed by political scientist, director of the Center for Applied Political Research “Penta” Volodymyr Fesenko in a comment on UA.News. We asked the expert what models are peaceful”, — write on: ua.news
Donald Trump, who will become the 47th president of the United States in a few hours, has repeatedly stated his desire to end the war in Ukraine as soon as possible. However, the only peace plan that was discussed publicly is, in fact, a freeze on the conflict.
This opinion was expressed by political scientist, director of the Center for Applied Political Research “Penta” Volodymyr Fesenko in a comment on UA.News.
We asked an expert what models of peaceful settlement might be relevant during the term of Donald Trump. According to Fesenko, there is currently only one scenario in the public sphere: the freezing of hostilities.
“This is a ceasefire along the front line. But another thing is that the front line is not stable. And in order to reach this ceasefire, the front must first be somehow stabilized… So for now, the model is like this. I don’t know of any other plans yet. They are, at least, not visible in public space. That is, Trump’s plan is a ceasefire on the front line and certain concessions to Putin: moratorium on Ukraine’s membership in NATO, partial lifting of sanctions, and some security guarantees for Ukraine. But the key problem for us is uncertainty. We still don’t have a consensus. But there is such a “sketch”, a general plan, how the new US administration sees the end of the war. We do not know of any other plan, it was not publicly discussed,” says the expert.
Fesenko wonders: does anyone think what will happen if Putin does not agree and does not go along with Trump’s plan? And such a scenario is very likely, because currently the Russian dictator is in a strong position.
“What if he (Putin – ed.) says “no”? This is where the scenarios begin. Of course, the most optimistic is that Putin will say yes. This is where the specifics, the discussion of the details of the peace agreement will begin. And they will try to sign it by the end of April: so that Trump would have a gift for 100 days of his presidency, and Putin – for the 80th anniversary of the victory over Nazism. This is the best, most idealistic scenario, but not the most likely. I give it 25-30% maximum.
Another scenario is negotiations and war at the same time. Putin will continue to put pressure on Ukraine, to move forward. Everything is clear with him. And what will Trump do? That’s if Putin stands his ground and that’s it. In this case, his advisers suggest putting pressure on Putin, increasing sanctions, lowering oil prices (but this is a long process), increasing military aid to Ukraine, and increasing military pressure. That is, we will be demonstratively given weapons and permits to strike on the territory of the Russian Federation. This will be a warning to Putin: agree. And here, perhaps, he will agree, but not immediately, but sometime in the fall. And again, this is only if it is possible to stabilize the front line,” Fesenko notes.
The political scientist also talked about the third scenario. And it is the most negative for Ukraine.
“And the third scenario, unfortunately, is that Trump, if he doesn’t get a result within six months or so, he’ll just spit and say, ‘That’s it, I’m sick of it, let the Europeans or someone else do it.’ He just washes his hands – that’s all… These are the scenarios I see at the moment. And the second scenario is the most likely. But the third, unfortunately, is also possible. Because the compromises will be very difficult, the path to them will be very difficult. Therefore, scenario number two is more likely, but everything depends on the circumstances,” Volodymyr Fesenko summarized.
We previously wrote that Trump made no effort to end the war in Ukraine immediately after his inauguration.
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