“Trump’s goal is not to stop the war forever. Ukraine found itself in a situation where it has to choose between bad and worse options – Dzhigun December 25, 19:00 Share: Capitol (Photo: REUTERS/Nathan Howard) Author: Oleg Biletsky Political scientist Maksym Dzhigun told on Radio NV whether the West can force Russia to give up their intentions to occupy Ukraine and what is the real goal of the future president of the United States, Donald Trump, regarding the end”, — write on: ua.news
Capitol (Photo: REUTERS/Nathan Howard)
Political scientist Maksym Dzhigun told on Radio NV whether the West can force Russia to abandon its intentions to occupy Ukraine and what the future US President Donald Trump’s real goal is to end the war.
[Російський диктатор Володимир] Putin will never give up the idea of taking over Ukraine. If we think in terms of rationality, then in general, the beginning of this full-scale invasion in 2022 looked like an irrational, illogical, absolutely sick intention, but Russia managed to do it. And with that, Putin put all his money on conquering Ukraine, so it is unlikely that he will ever give up this idea during his lifetime.
The point here is to what extent the political key players of the civilized Western world will be able to force Russia to abandon its intentions, at least temporarily.
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I think Trump’s dream right now is not to end this war once and for all. He dreams of forcing Putin to abandon these intentions during his presidency, so that he does not have to return to the issue every time; so that he does not have to write huge checks to support Ukraine every year; that this war should not be a factor of influence on him in the geopolitical context, in the context of international politics with other states, in particular with the People’s Republic of China.
Therefore, Trump prefers to dream of a temporary end to the war, in order to turn the page and return to business, to do other things.
Ukraine has completely different priorities. Actually, because of this, the Ukrainian side now has conflicts and sometimes misunderstandings with Trump’s entourage and with Trump himself, because he believes that by giving part of Ukraine’s territory, you can forget about the cause of this conflict. And in fact, everything is much deeper. I think every Ukrainian understands that it is not about the territories.
Therefore, there is a need to obtain those security guarantees, so that, understanding Russia’s further offensives – not in two years, but in four or five years, as long as Putin’s health and the ability to reason in general in terms of seizing territories , — we were ready for this offensive at that moment. [Потрібно мати] membership in NATO, or sufficient stockpiles of weapons, in particular long-range weapons, to limit these appetites of the Kremlin. That is, understanding that the beast will come for you again later, you need to prepare as best as possible to repel it.
It seems to me that this is the way our international position and the position regarding the holding of potential negotiations, which are currently being discussed, is being built.
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In the conditions when we are actually observing that the situation at the front is unfolding unfavorably at the moment, given the delays and lack of military support, the question arises as to who will survive whom, who will outlast whom.
And a really difficult question arises before Ukrainian society, before the political class: whether to agree to all the unpleasant, compromising solutions in the hope that it will be possible to strengthen, to convince the world community, to outwit the Russians, or to continue to receive a very high dose [західну] help, spending primarily human resources, realizing that Russia has a margin of safety greater than we could hope for. Because when you have enterprises beyond the Urals, when you have 140 million people, if you measure our capabilities purely in quantitative terms, then of course the Russians will be ahead.
That’s why the mood is for technology, for real guarantees in the form of weapons or joining the Alliance in the future, the mood is for beating the Russians through sanctions and economically.
But, you know, if there was a bloodless recipe for getting out of this situation for Ukraine, I think it would already be implemented. Therefore, we all find ourselves in a situation where we have to choose between bad and worse options.