Tomahawk deliveries to Ukraine: how the Kremlin can respond

A meeting between President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi and US President Donald Trump is scheduled for Friday, October 17. Although the agenda includes a number of issues, the most important topic is the potential provision of long-range missiles to Ukraine Tomahawk cruise missiles . The head of state is expected to ask for these supplies as a necessary element for the fight against Russian aggression.

The strategic value of “Tomahawks” for Kyiv is determined, first of all, by the range of action, which can reach 2,500 kilometers. Such a long-range allows Ukraine to hit military and logistical facilities, as well as control centers deep in the rear of the Russian Federation, exceeding the range of ATACMS systems by many times.

In Moscow, these intentions met with an extremely negative reaction. The head of the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin, warned that supplying Kiev with missiles capable of reaching Moscow or St. Petersburg would be “a new stage of escalation that will destroy relations between the Russian Federation and the United States.” Russian officials like Dmitry Medvedev openly threaten nuclear strikes and war in Europe.

Be that as it may, it is obvious that the Tomahawk issue is very fundamental for Moscow. In the event that these weapons appear in the Armed Forces, the Kremlin will obviously respond in some way. Its potential responses can be conditionally divided into symmetric and asymmetric.

So how will the Russian Federation respond if “tomahawks” appear in Ukraine? UA.News political columnist Nikita Trachuk discussed the issue together with experts.

Symmetric responses to deliveries of Tomahawk missiles

Symmetrical measures that Russia may take in response to the transfer of the Tomahawk will focus primarily on a sharp escalation of hostilities in Ukraine, a demonstration of increased military potential, and a complete freeze on political contacts with the United States.

The Kremlin could use the supply long-range weapons as a formal justification for a significant increase in shelling of Ukrainian infrastructure. Instead of the current waves of dozens of missiles and hundreds of drones, Moscow could attempt a simultaneous strike involving hundreds of cruise missiles and 1,000+ attack UAVs. The goal of such a “mega-strike” is not only to cause maximum destruction, but also to exhaust Ukrainian air defense.

The most threatening part of this symmetrical response may concern the Ukrainian energy system, which is already in an extremely fragile and vulnerable position. Russia is likely to focus on hitting key elements critical to the stability of the entire system — in particular, nuclear power plants.

It still remains a key goal of the Kremlin complete blackout in Ukraine. As long as nuclear power plants are operating, it is practically impossible. But if you destroy all the distribution power of the nuclear power plant, the consequences can be catastrophic.

Moscow’s strategy is to maximize socio-economic destruction, including nuclear blackmail. By striking distribution facilities, the Kremlin is almost guaranteed to cause a large-scale and long-lasting blackout, while keeping the world on edge about a potential man-made disaster through strikes on nuclear infrastructure. This is a test of the determination of the West and its readiness to accept the consequences of direct escalation.

At the military-technical level, Russia can respond to the Tomahawk with a demonstrative deployment or repeated use of the infamous missile system “Hazelnut” . The use of this weapon by Moscow is considered as an actual “nuclear” threat, but without its use – after all, “Oreshnik” is an intercontinental missile capable of carrying a nuclear charge. That is, this is a kind of hint from the Russian Federation.

In the diplomatic field, the supply of Tomahawk will have a direct consequence in the form of a complete freeze of the political dialogue between Moscow and Washington. Putin has already warned about this. In this case, the Russian Federation and the USA will return to the “zero point”, which is characterized by the complete absence of political contacts and any prospects for settlement, as was the case in the later stages of the work of the Biden administration.

Asymmetric responses of the Kremlin to the supply of Tomahawk

The asymmetric response of the Kremlin to Tomahawk transmission will be aimed at destabilizing the geopolitical positions of the US and the West in general through strengthening cooperation with key allies of the Russian Federation, thereby expanding the geography of confrontation. The delivery of these missiles could be a catalyst for the exchange of sensitive military technology with Russia’s partner states, with far-reaching implications for regional security.

For example, the Russian Federation is already a strategic partner of Tehran in the field of nuclear energy, having built the operating nuclear power plant in Bushehr and signed agreements on the construction of four more facilities. In response to Tomahawk, Moscow could dramatically accelerate this cooperation.

The most significant step will be the active assistance of Russian specialists in modernization, protection and overcoming the consequences of American-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. This support will allow Iran to accelerate the development of its nuclear program, creating a new strategic threat in the Middle East.

Also, Russia can deepen the military-technical exchange with the DPRK, handing over to Pyongyang important technologies — for example, related to the production of ballistic and hypersonic missiles. The goal of such a move is to dramatically increase the threat to US regional allies such as South Korea and Japan.

We should not forget about Belarus. Although it is not a critical global lever, the transfer of additional weapons to Minsk could still create new tensions on NATO’s borders, which also fits into the logic of an asymmetric response.

Another important direction of the asymmetric response is the strengthening of the Russian Federation in the Middle East. Moscow, in particular, can strengthen its military presence in Syria. Recent political contacts, in particular Putin’s meeting with the new Syrian president Ahmed al-Sharaa, create the basis for expanding cooperation. This could include the deployment of new weapons systems or increased troop numbers that would challenge US and Israeli military operations in the region. Here we can also mention Yemeni Houthis which Moscow, according to Western media, also helps.

Opinions of experts

Military expert, retired SBU colonel Oleg Starikov says that there are three options for Russia’s response to the potential supply of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine.

“Option number 1 — Putin will be afraid and will endure. That is, there will be no answer. It will be the same as with HIMARS and ATACMS. They will try to knock down for help using available forces and resources and continue the war of attrition. At the same time, the strikes on Ukraine will intensify and eventually knock out the entire energy sector, leading Ukraine to a humanitarian disaster. The second option is that a demarche will be made through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, then the US ambassador will be summoned, then there is a possibility of a break in diplomatic relations. Next, all offensive weapons and anti-aircraft defenses will begin to be pulled up to NATO’s eastern flank, but without the nuclear component. This will lead to a serious complication of the situation.

And finally, the third option — if a Tomahawk strike is carried out, and the damage inflicted on Russia will be serious, then the conditional Houthis may have similar missiles, but Russian ones. Missile technologies will be transferred to the enemies of the United States. Venezuela, for example, and it will be able to hit the American fleet, which is currently blocking the country. I also do not rule out strikes on US bases. There is also a fourth option related to nuclear weapons, but I don’t even want to talk about that.” Oleg Starikov said.

Expert in missile weapons Oleksandr Kochetkov expressed much more succinctly.

“I see no point in scaring Ukrainians with my own fantasies. And the key word here is “scare”, not “fantasy”, – noted the expert.

In summary, the supply of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine will be a step that will definitely raise the stakes in the war. It is a long-range and powerful weapon capable of destroying targets at a distance of up to 2,500 kilometers, creating a direct threat to the strategic centers of Russia. This is a major source of anxiety for the Kremlin.

At the same time, it is necessary to realize that the Tomahawk, unfortunately, will not become a “weapon of victory” that will radically change the situation at the front or end the war. The policy of relations between the USA and the Russian Federation is built on unspoken balances and thresholds of escalation. If the United States strengthens Ukraine, Moscow, according to the logic of confrontation, will respond in a mirror manner to one degree or another.

The most likely scenario is one in which the Tomahawk transmission would trigger an acute but limited period of escalation. The Kremlin will respond on a symmetrical level by intensifying massive strikes against Ukraine and using elements of nuclear blackmail. An asymmetric response will focus on destabilization in other regions of the world — through deepening technological cooperation with Iran or North Korea, as well as possible increased support for the Yemeni Houthis to attack global trade.

A nuclear response by Russia or the start of direct aggression against NATO member states remains unlikely due to the unacceptable risk of mutual destruction. So, in the case of the Tomahawk transfer, the world will experience a period of escalation and radical rhetoric, after which the situation will stabilize at a new level, and the war will continue.