“On Monday, February 24, the third anniversary of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation gathered in Kyiv and the leaders of many Union countries of Ukraine gathered in Kiev. Among them were representatives of the Baltic and Scandinavian states, as well as Britain and Canada. In addition to the symbolic support of Kiev on the anniversary of the invasion, Ukraine has promised new large volumes of financial and military assistance. In total, on February 24, partners were allocated to Ukraine”, – WRITE ON: ua.news
On Monday, February 24, the third anniversary of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation gathered in Kyiv and the leaders of many Union countries of Ukraine gathered in Kiev. Among them were representatives of the Baltic and Scandinavian states, as well as Britain and Canada. In addition to the symbolic support of Kiev on the anniversary of the invasion, Ukraine has promised new large volumes of financial and military assistance. In total, on February 24, partners allocated money and weapons worth more than € 15 billion.
All this happens against the background of serious exacerbation of relations between Kiev and Washington. The US military assistance, which has been the basis for Ukraine throughout these years, is at risk of being lost.
In this regard, the question arises: if the peaceful peace does not come in the near future, then how to continue the war? Will Europe be able to cover all the costs if America Trump is completely self -suggested from this process? UA.news political observer Nikita Trachuk Together with the experts he dealt with the question.
What Europe is capable of
Apparently, the European Union at least partially tries to replace the United States. Today, EU countries are discussing which of them and in what extent will finance military assistance to Ukraine in case of complete cessation of US support. And on February 24, representatives of the North Baltic Eight, together with Canadian and British partners, generally allocated money and weapons to more than € 15 billion in Ukraine.
In total, the Baltic and Northern countries have helped Kiev for more than € 26 billion. President Zelensky then said that “we are proud of such a partnership.”
“All the leaders of the North Baltic Eight countries today in Ukraine. It’s a partnership we are proud of. I thank € 26 billion military assistance provided to Ukraine over three years of full -scale Russian aggression and investments in our Ukrainian production…. We must continue to work as fruitfully within Europe. Together we protect the lives of Ukrainians and the safety of the continent, ”the head of state said.
The fact that the EU has plans to become the main partner of Ukraine instead of the United States was confirmed by the Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban the day before. In particular, the politician said that Europe is really preparing to “replace” America and plans to assist Kiev for “tens of billions of euros”, of which 500 million a year should pay Budapest. The Hungarian leader has promised to “always vote against” and added that Ukraine would never become an EU member without approval by Hungary.
Some Western media have already published details of future European military assistance packages in Kiev. The Politico material was a week ago, a amount of € 6 billion, of which € 5.6 billion, has already promised Britain. One of the elements of this publication plan calls the supply of 1.5 million artillery shells.
And here it is appropriate to stop and mention the Czech initiative “million shells for Ukraine”. It was launched in 2023. At that time, President Peter Pavel said he would be able to pass a whole million shells quickly (during weeks).
However, weeks turned into a month. It turned out that it was no longer about a million, but about 800 thousand. As a result, the planned number has decreased to 500 thousand. Of these, as of December 2024, about a third managed to deliver to Ukraine.
What do we have as a result? Two years ago, we were promised a million shells in a few weeks. In two years we are promised not a million, but 500 thousand, of which they really delivered 150-200 thousand at best.
And this is the situation – a litmus paper of European capabilities. The media has already reported that one Russia produces more artillery shells than all the EU is combined. In such circumstances, it is extremely doubtful that Europe will be able to put 1.5 million artillery shells in Ukraine in the short term – and this is not to mention other weapons. And if such deliveries will stretch for years, then the point in them as such will simply will not.
The EU will not be able to “become America” for Ukraine
Decades of peace, peace, development and well -being have been too much relaxed by European countries. It must be acknowledged that today the European Union has neither production capacity, storage, nor free finances for supplying the required volumes of weapons for a long time. He simply does not have as much as it takes for such a war. And he does not have time to produce it promptly – because the war, we recall, has been going on for the fourth year.
In this case, the EU remains very rich, though not without problems and crises. And when it comes to only financial support, then he is doing so much-although it is still a debate issue. However, according to French President Emmanuel Macron, Europe has helped Ukraine for € 138 billion over the years of the war. This is a fairly large amount.
Also, one should not forget about the serious pressure of the United States on European countries. We will be honest: when we say “One Europe”, we forget that it has long been a myth. Europe is absolutely not the only one, it has different centers of strength and different political positions, which are often diametrically opposite to each other.
What unity can be between the leaders of Hungary, Slovakia and, for example, France with Estonia? And what about Poland and Germany, which are constantly conflicting? Their positions do not coincide almost everywhere, where you can not coincide when it comes to Ukraine.
That is, many EU countries and part of European elites are focused on Donald Trump and the US. And, probably, Washington will increase the pressure on the EU in the context of calling Ukraine to agree to peace, not to continue the war.
In words, Europe declares itself as the center of force and geopolitical subject. But in reality, it is weak, separated and highly dependent on the same US – especially in the field of security and economy. Therefore, Trump’s position on war and peace, if not crucial for the EU, is at least very, very important.
Finally, the main thing is that purely technically European Union will not be able to replace the United States by 100%, even if he wanted. If Washington disconnects Kyiv access to real -time intelligence data, Starlink satellite communication, Palantir intelligence software and a number of other similar products, will be replaced by Europeans.
Yes, they have money. But there is no political unity, there is not enough weapons and there are no most advanced technologies.
Expert opinions
Political scientist, director of the Institute of World Policy Eugene Magda skeptical to be able to replace the EU completely connectly No States. It points to the fact that Europe is divided today and has no internal unity. In addition, the issue of finance and budget arises.
“The desire of the European Union – although it is more correct to speak about the European political community – its desire to replace the United States is politically conditioned, but economically it does not always have grounds. First of all, let’s not forget that the EU and Britain are in a rather difficult relationship, and finding common ground is not easy. Yes, joint protection interests can be significant, but they are not always realized.
Second, money. It is not easy to find opportunities to finance the military budget in the current situation. We have to understand this … The US military budget for Europeans is unattainable. And again, the existence within the European Union itself, which can be called Kremlin agents, also complicates the process of supporting the European community, ”the political scientist says.
According to the expert, all these problems are quite difficult for modern Europe. And now European countries are trying to “preserve their own political face.”
“They try to preserve the political face and prove that Ukraine is a European state. But realizing that it will be very difficult to prove it specifically, ”Eugene Magda summarized.
Political scientist, director of the Ukrainian Institute of Policy Ruslan Bortnik I am sure that Europe itself is analyzing the situation for itself and trying to find out in what security areas it can do without the US and in which it cannot. And in many fields, the EU is behind America for 5-10 years at least.
“When we talk about how much Europe can replace the United States in Ukraine, we need to understand that even in Europe, Europe cannot fully replace the United States. If we talk closer to Ukrainian realities, judging by the rate of production, Europe can only mitigate the military situation for Ukraine. The EU can help Ukraine in the part of armored vehicles, in the artillery, ammunition, small arms, partly air defense. Europe, at the same time, cannot completely replace the United States in the part of long -range weapons at least. Therefore, Europe can depreciate or extend time for Ukraine, but if the United States leaves Ukraine without help, it is obvious that Ukraine will deteriorate, especially in the second half of this year, ”Bortnik said.
According to the expert, Europe is not even able to pay the United States for its own security services today. Therefore, it is unlikely that you should expect very much help in Ukraine.
“When I hear that Europe can buy weapons for Ukraine in the US … I want to remind that Europe is unable to reach 5% of GDP for NATO financing, which Trump requires. Moreover, in some countries, such as in Germany, there are decisions of the Constitutional Court that prohibit the state budget deficit in this direction. Therefore, a situation in which Europe cannot reach NATO’s internal standards, but sharply increases assistance to Ukraine, allocates funds for the purchase of US weapons, etc. – this is very unlikely. This is more an example when the desire is given for reality. Therefore, I think that Ukraine has a stock of strength created by Biden’s previous administration for 6-9 months. Such were American grades, such as Ukrainian grades. But in the future, the situation may worsen if the war continues, and the military balance can begin to change significantly in favor of Russia, ”Ruslan Bortnik summarized.
As a summary, we can conclude that Europe is not able to fully “pick up” Ukraine today and replace US military assistance. Yes, the EU remains an important partner. But not key. Ukraine needs to look carefully at this situation and understand that although partnership with the EU is very important – it is not equivalent to American. And this is an objective fact.
Nikita Trachuk