“The West needs a better plan.” A ceasefire will encourage Putin, not stop the war and weaken Ukraine — Bloomberg editorial

This was stated in a Bloomberg editorial on Monday, September 30, devoted to the risks of a ceasefire on the front in Ukraine and the appeal that “the West needs a better plan.”

The authors of the article emphasize that the details of the Victory Plan of the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, were not made public, but he spoke openly about its message – only a strong Ukraine is able to force Putin to sit down at the negotiating table.

Bloomberg notes that indeed, as long as Putin believes he can survive Western support for Ukraine, his war of attrition will continue.

“The question is how to change his calculations,” the article states.

Journalists, emphasizing the grave consequences of the war in Ukraine, emphasize that “the impulse to surrender — to accept Putin’s conditions, to stop the carnage and prevent further escalation — is understandable.”

“However, is such an agreement even possible,” the authors of the article ask.

Bloomberg reminded that Putin periodically “pretended” to be interested in negotiations, but his price — Ukraine’s renunciation of its claims to four illegally annexed regions, as well as Crimea and the abandonment of hopes for NATO membership — demonstrates his insincerity.

“No matter how desirable the ceasefire is, it will cause huge risks for Ukraine,” the journalists are sure.

First of all, the pause will give the Russian military time to replenish personnel and weapons, mobilize, and eliminate operational deficiencies.

“Putin is likely to use such a truce to simply plan more attacks, as he has done many times in the past, including after his previous invasion of Ukraine in 2014,” Bloomberg warned.

According to the editors of the publication, the pause may jeopardize international support for Ukraine, which will further complicate its task of protecting itself from Russia.

Many Western allies are already looking for an excuse to redirect funds from Ukraine to domestic needs. Moreover, Bloomberg emphasizes, Germany is planning a significant reduction in such aid in the 2025 budget.

“The cessation of hostilities can become a plausible cover,” the journalists note.

At the same time, Putin is betting on the tiredness of the West to support Ukraine, on the fact that the Russian people will remain passive, while the Russian army is quite well financed and will be able to continue the war.

A false ceasefire could make all of these stakes more likely, and leave both Ukraine and the West worse off when fighting resumes.

“The goal of the US and its allies should be to provide Ukraine with maximum negotiating leverage before entering into negotiations,” urges Bloomberg.

First of all, the West must recognize that any significant reduction in funding now will not end the war, but rather embolden Putin. It is also necessary to continue to strengthen the air defense of Ukraine, increase the supply of ammunition and other weapons, and remove most of the restrictions on the use of long-range missiles.

According to the authors of the publication, only such efforts are likely to change Putin’s calculations. Allies also need to agree on a reliable security guarantee for Ukraine.

Bloomberg editors emphasize that throughout his bloody reign, Putin has always been ready to break truces, agreements and go back on his words when he saw a strategic advantage in it. And there is no reason to believe that this time will be different.

Therefore, without proper measures, the ceasefire in Ukraine will not end the war, will not save lives and will not benefit the people of the country.

“It will do the opposite,” the authors of the publication conclude.

Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are the main thing

On March 29, 2022, negotiations between Ukraine and Russia took place in Istanbul. In the second half of the spring, the negotiation process came to an impasse.

On June 15, 2024, the New York Times newspaper published documents regarding peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.

The conflicting issues, according to the published documents, were Ukraine’s level of armaments, the terms of Ukraine’s potential membership in the European Union, and certain Ukrainian laws on language and culture that Russia wanted to repeal.

On June 14, before the peace summit in Switzerland, to which Russia was not invited, dictator Vladimir Putin announced his “conditions” for ending the war against Ukraine.

On June 16, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, said in Switzerland that the Istanbul talks between Ukraine and Russia were unsuccessful due to ultimatums from the Russian side.

On September 5, Federal Chancellor of Austria Karl Neghammer stated that his country supports a just and stable peace in Ukraine and is ready to become a platform for negotiations.

On September 24, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that his country would strengthen support for efforts to end the Russian-Ukrainian war through diplomacy and dialogue based on Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.

On September 25, Politico, citing sources, reported that Ukraine chose Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as its main mediator for negotiations with Russia.

On September 29, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, announced his country’s readiness to mediate for a settlement “crisis” between Ukraine and the Russian Federation.