“In recent months, significant changes have been recorded in the political rhetoric of US and Russia leaders and global strategic communications as such. The administration of US President Donald Trump is very active in establishing relations with Russia. Rhetoric about aggression and war crimes of the Kremlin actually disappeared from the public discourse. Instead, the idea of a new “thaw” came to the fore”, – WRITE ON: ua.news
In recent months, significant changes have been recorded in the political rhetoric of US and Russia leaders and global strategic communications as such. The administration of US President Donald Trump is very active in establishing relations with Russia. Rhetoric about aggression and war crimes of the Kremlin actually disappeared from the public discourse. Instead, the idea of a new thaw, a discharge in relationships and finding mutually beneficial compromises came to the fore. Moscow, however, corresponds to similar complimentary statements.
This is perfectly demonstrated by a recent vote for a resolution in Ukraine in the UN Security Council. The text of the document did not mention that the Russian Federation is an aggressor. Instead, Kyiv and Moscow were urged to get around and stop combat as soon as possible.
And what is most intriguing in this general picture is China’s position. For the first time in many years, the United States, Russian Federation and China have completely supported the international document, and not at the UN Security Council. Beijing today actively approves the rapprochement of Washington and Moscow, calling this process a “window of opportunity” for peace in Ukraine and for global stabilization in the world.
It would seem that according to the logic of confrontation between America and China, the latter should counteract any attempts by Americans and Russians to reconcile. But no, everything is the opposite.
And it makes you think: what happens between the parties in general? These are tactical maneuvers and political rhetoric – is the formation of a new global alliance? Why is such an alliance absolutely possible, and not only Ukraine but all of Europe can be its main victim? UA.news political observer Nikita Trachuk Together with the experts he dealt with the situation.
Strategic paradigm change
The main strategic change in the US foreign policy of the Trump epoch is that the Russian Federation officially ceases to be the main opponent at the geopolitical level for America. Instead, the need to negotiate and seek compromises. Hence the plans to cooperate with rare earth metals in Russia (Idée Fixe Trump), and emphasized complimentary rhetorical techniques, etc. In addition, both the US President and members of his team have repeatedly stated that the main threat to America is not Russia but China.
This approach is very profitable for the Russian Federation. After all, many years of conflict with the United States and Western countries was generally and remains grueling for Moscow. An unprecedented amount of sanctions, partial isolation, constant diplomatic pressure, etc. – all this is not in favor of any state. Therefore, warming and a discharge of relations with America gives the Kremlin a chance to update and exit a strategic deadlock. Even if the price for it is certain compromises.
However, the most unexpected in this case – again China’s reaction. It seems that the PRC considers the “defrosting” of dialogue between the US and the Russian Federation is something very positive and useful for itself. This is evidenced by both the above -mentioned voting for the resolution in Ukraine in the UN Security Council and the rhetoric by the Foreign Ministry of the country. The Chinese constantly welcome warming in relationships, approve of any contacts, express hope for consensus between America and Russia, etc.
And this discharge support looks pretty strange for China. Especially given the fact that Trumpists have repeatedly called China’s main opponent for the United States. However, this paradox is only at first glance. If you understand the reasons, Beijing may really be interested in what is happening right now.
First, China is important in Europe. The war in Ukraine creates serious economic risks, increases tension and interferes with trade – which is the basis of Chinese “geopolitics through money”. If the US and Russia agree on the end of the war or at least its freezing, it will strengthen China’s position as a key EU trade partner.
Secondly, Russia is interested in China as a buffer between it and the West. Moscow is able to play a balancing role and to smooth the sharp angles of the American-Chinese confrontation, to be a mediator between the parties.
Third, China is interested in weakening Europe. Both Beijing, Moscow, and Washington are viewed not as an independent force, but as an object of international policy, a kind of economic trophy. As guys who will pay for everything and everyone. Therefore, if the Russian Federation and the US solve its main problems on its own, Europe will actually remain alone, even weaker and separated than one day. This will allow China to consolidate and enhance their own influence on the continent.
Summing up this block, we see an over -interest picture. In fact, the global interests of all three states coincide the situation-just a touching unity. The US wants to focus on a discharge from the Russian Federation and restraining China, but without “war on two fronts”. Russia wants to completely get out of isolation and secure the areas of influence. China wants to dominate the world economically, and above all – in the EU.
It turns out that everyone is here. All but Europe and Ukraine as part of the European community.
Europe as the main trophy of the “Triangle of Power”
If the three major international poles and centers of power – the US, the Russian Federation and China – are situationally united to achieve their goals, the main question arises: who will be the losing party? Who will be forced to pay for everything? Who will be divided – of course, not territorially, but in terms of finance, technologies, access to markets, investments and capital, etc.? And only one answer begs: Europe will become this “geopolitical failure”. And, of course, Ukraine, as part of this block and community, is not formal, but essentially.
The modern European Union is a very rich, but weak and shaky association. The EU has no coordinated position, has no internal unity, has no armed forces. In safety issues, it is totally dependent on the United States, in economic issues – on China, the United States and even partially the Russian Federation. Therefore, within the potential “triangle of force”, this new “Triple Union” is possible the following scenario:
- Eastern Europe and some Balkan countries will start drifting more actively towards Moscow, as it was during the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Bloc;
- Western Europe will remain under US military and political control, but strongly weakened;
- Central and Southern Europe will be a field for China’s financial and technological expansion;
- Ukraine in this scenario will either be influenced by Moscow in conditionally neutral status, or continue to be in the area of influence of the United States, while remaining internally disconnected.
That is The model described above is at risk of turning from the subject of international policy into an object that will simply “share” the strong of this world. The markets, resources, money and technologies of Europe will be a prize in a large geopolitical game. But this will not become the basis for long -term strong peace, because it will be about the world where the right of power, not the power of law.
For some time, European resources will be enough to satisfy the appetites of the Washington-Moscow-Beipow axis. But these will be years, not a decade of peace. And in the end, three global players will again encounter their foreheads with each other, with the prospect of a truly great war, about which the script does not even want to write.
Expert opinions
Well -known Ukrainian political scientist Viktor NevzhenkoIn commenting on this situation, he turned to recent history. He recalled that not so long ago there was an attempt to build such an alliance, but instead of Washington was then Berlin. Now the situation is repeated to some extent.
“20 years ago, Germany began to come with Putin a little. And Putin began to converge with China. And such an invisible geopolitical axis “Berlin-Moscow-Peperin” was formed. The Americans were angry at the time, they did not believe what could happen. But in Germany, there were problems with the European Union. Both with Italy and Poland. But Berlin’s relations with Moscow were perfect. And Moscow began a good relationship with China. And even then, this trinity was thinking about creating such an alliance. But above all, they were hindered by “pro -American” Ukraine. For some reason, they decided that we all love America here. Although the elites, of course, focused on America and the West, ”Negzhenko recalls.
The political scientist believes that the US is really important today to find common ground with Moscow. But they will be done at the expense of Ukraine and Europe.
“This is a very complex scheme. After all, Europe has been “throwing” so hundreds, if not for thousands of years – since the Roman Empire. And now Europe and Ukraine are not needed. And the US proposes to master this continent differently. But if Trump does not find a common language with Putin, he will start looking for her with China directly. This will mean one thing: after such, after Europe, the next victim of this deriban will become Russia, ” – says Nekzhenko.
According to the expert, it is in fact very unpleasant for the Chinese that Putin’s Russia has begun to flirt with the states. Rhetoric is one thing, but the reality is another.
“It is not even about the economy, but that the Chinese need nuclear weapons, the” nuclear umbrella “of Russia. But as a result, only two should remain in this confrontation, ”Viktor Nevzhenko summarized.
The political scientist, the head of the Center for Applied Political Studies “Penta Vladimir Fesenko. The expert believes that in relations between the US, the Russian Federation and the PRC now there is much more rhetoric, which also does not always correspond to real political reality.
“There is no likelihood of such an alliance. China is concerned about the active rapprochement of Trump and Putin. Yes, rhetoric concerning the cessation of war is. But first, China wants to join the peace process. And secondly, it is really concerned. Because one of the main goals of the active rapprochement of the United States with Russia is to detach the Russian Federation from China, and all understand it. Not the creation of any union, there are no such utopian projects. To negotiate how to divide the world into three – theoretically possible. Some experts suggest this opinion. But the main goal is to tear Russia from China. And at the same time it is unlikely to work, ”the political scientist predicts.
According to Fesenko, Putin will not go to a full break with the PRC. It will balance between two poles, but no more.
“China doesn’t like it. It will apply its levers. It will play contradictions between the US and Russia and will use Europe. But at the same time, China insists that both Europe and Ukraine have to participate in the settlement of war, in negotiations. This is a very important point … I think, later China can declare itself. For example, to remind your peace plan. Especially if negotiations between the Russian Federation and the US are hung. The main thing is that the fundamental contradictions between all participants are never overcome. They stay. That is why I am extremely skeptical about the assumption of the Union between the US, Russia and China, ”Vladimir Fesenko summarized.
In the end, the main question is: can the Washington-Moscow-Peperin axis be a new “Triple Union”? In fact, in the full sense, the word “union” is unlikely. The fundamental differences between these states are stored and no gone. But they can unite in a situational alliance for interests, a kind of “triangle” of three autocratic and pragmatic leaders. What is confirmed by experts.
This coalition can lead to key international players temporarily agree on a section of spheres of influence – just what Putin sought. Europe, together with Ukraine, risks going under this global redistribution. And it seems that both in Kiev and in Brussels understand it – that is why pressure from the United States is so frankly resisted.
Nikita Trachuk