“Ukraine’s economy retains stability, but GDP growth will slow down through war and inflation. Inflation reached 12.9%, which led to an increase in the NBU discount rate. This is stated in the IMF press release. Ukraine’s economy remains stable, despite three years of war. According to the results of 2024, the real GDP growth is estimated at 3.5%, but in 2025 it can slow down to 2-3%”, – WRITE ON: ua.news
Ukraine’s economy retains stability, but GDP growth will slow down through war and inflation. Inflation reached 12.9%, which led to an increase in the NBU discount rate.
This is stated in the IMF press release.
Ukraine’s economy remains stable, despite three years of war. According to the results of 2024, the real GDP growth is estimated at 3.5%, but in 2025 it can be slowed down to 2-3% due to labor deficiency, damage to energy infrastructure and prolonged fighting.
Inflation continues to increase, reaching 12.9% in the annual dimension in January, which is primarily due to the increase in prices for food and wages. In response, the National Bank of Ukraine has raised the discount rate by 150 base points since December.
Ukraine’s international reserves reached $ 43 billion as of January 2025, which was made possible by considerable external financial support.
Risks to the economy remain extremely high because of uncertainty about war, peace prospects and further restoration of the country.
Recall that the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) reduced the forecast of Ukraine’s economy growth by 2025 to 3.5%, compared to the previous forecast of 4.7% in September last year. According to the Bank, Ukraine began 2025 with weak economic results and increasing inflation, and the reduction of the forecast is associated with Russia’s constant attacks on energy infrastructure that hinder the production process.
The growth of Ukraine’s GDP is expected at 3.5% in 2025, with further acceleration of up to 5.0% in 2026, provided the ceasefire was reached by the end of 2025.
We will remind that on February 20 in Ukraine the mission of the International Monetary Fund began work. Discussion with the representatives of the Ukrainian authorities of the seventh revision of the Extended Financing Program (EFF) will continue.
At the end of December 2024, the State Budget of Ukraine received the seventh tranche of about $ 1.1 billion from the IMF under the four -year program of the expanded financing mechanism (EFF). In total, Ukraine received $ 9.8 billion from the IMF.
For 2025, under the IMF EFF Ukraine, Ukraine has to get up to $ 2.7 billion as a result of four views.
