“The European Union is discussing a plan to speed up the movement of Ukraine and other candidate countries to membership, without lowering the demands for reforms. Politico writes about it. Brussels emphasizes: there will be no “simplification” of the criteria, and the initiative is intended as a clear political signal of support in the conditions of war and internal disputes in the EU itself. At the same time, diplomats admit that promotion can”, — write on: ua.news
The European Union is discussing a plan to speed up the movement of Ukraine and other candidate countries to membership, without lowering the demands for reforms.
Politico writes about it.
Brussels emphasizes: there will be no “simplification” of the criteria, and the initiative is intended as a clear political signal of support in the conditions of war and internal disputes in the EU itself.
At the same time, diplomats admit that progress can rest not on technical procedures, but on political vetoes. The most difficult knot in this story remains the position of Hungary.
The first block of steps by the EU focuses on preparing Ukraine for negotiations on “clusters” — the legal stages into which the path to accession is divided.
Kyiv has already been given detailed guidelines for three of the six clusters, so that the country could prepare legislative and institutional changes in parallel.
In March, during the informal meeting of the ministers of European affairs in Cyprus, the EU plans to provide the Ukrainian delegation with information about the remaining clusters. The logic is simple: fewer pauses in the process and more ready solutions on the table.
The second direction of discussion is the model of “facilitated” entry, which is described in the EU as “reverse enlargement”.
The idea is that the country could join some institutions and mechanisms of the EU earlier, and receive a full set of rights and obligations gradually.
Supporters believe that this will allow the procedures to be adapted to the reality of war and protracted crises, when the classic way stretches out for years.
However, there is resistance in the European Union itself, in particular in Germany, where they are wary of the appearance of multi-level membership and “promises” that Brussels will not be able to fulfill later.
The third and key factor is Hungary and Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who publicly opposes Ukraine’s accession to the EU.
European capitals are considering various scenarios to lift the blockade: from waiting for the results of the elections in Hungary to using political tools of influence within the union.
As Politico points out, few in Brussels believe that Orbán will change his position regardless of the results of the vote. That is why the EU is trying to prepare a “plan B” so as not to get stuck in an endless circle of vetoes.
A fourth possible lever is external political pressure if domestic arrangements fail. In European discussions, it is mentioned that Budapest can theoretically be influenced by US President Donald Trump.
According to the logic of Politico’s interlocutors, an additional motivator could be the mention of Ukraine’s accession to the EU by 2027 in the “20-point” plan associated with Trump.
In such a scenario, the bet is on direct contacts and an attempt to “press” a decision at the political level.
The fifth, toughest option is the EU’s extreme mechanisms, which can limit the ability of one country to block enlargement decisions.
Among the tools being discussed again on the sidelines is the return to Article 7 of the EU treaty against Hungary, which could theoretically suspend some of the member state’s rights, including the right to vote.
Politico emphasizes that the EU does not want to take such a step now, so as not to play in Orbán’s favor on the eve of the elections.
At the same time, Brussels is already assessing whether there will be enough support for this scenario if the blockade from Budapest continues.
We would like to remind you that the EU is preparing a special format for the accession of Ukraine.
Ukraine may also join the EU in 2027.
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