“Ambassador of Ukraine to the United Kingdom, and in the past – the head of the Armed Forces, General Valery Zaluzhny recently interviewed LB Live. The conversation, however, concerned not the diplomatic activity of the excommercial forces of defense, but issues of war and peace. Zaluzhny spoke about his vision of the war of the future, the shortcomings of the NATO defense system, technological breakthroughs in hostilities, etc. Among other things, the general”, – WRITE ON: ua.news
Ambassador of Ukraine in the United Kingdom, and in the past – the head of the Armed Forces, General Valery Zaluzhny recently gave interview LB Live. The conversation, however, concerned not the diplomatic activity of the excommercial forces of defense, but issues of war and peace. Zaluzhny spoke about his vision of the war of the future, the shortcomings of the NATO defense system, technological breakthroughs in hostilities, etc.
Among other things, the general analyzed the situation in the fields of the Russian-Ukrainian war. And gave a disappointing forecast. According to him, bloodshed can last until 2034 – if Kiev does not change the “strategy of its future protection.”
Zaluzhny’s statements were actively discussed and quoted in the media. Such things are perceived by society very gloomy and anxious, because the prospect of continuing the “meat grinder” for many 9 years can not delight any adequate person. However, if you understand the situation in more detail, it becomes clear: the Ambassador of Ukraine to Britain refers to some other things, and the forecast for 2034 should not be taken so literally.
So what exactly did Valery Zaluzhny wanted to say and can the war in Ukraine really last until 2034? UA.news political observer Nikita Trachuk Together with the experts he dealt with the question.
What was the Zaluzhny
In the words of the former Commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the date – 2034, to which the war in our country can last. Both all Ukrainian and many international media were then published with headlines about alarming forecasts from the Exchange of the Armed Forces. And some experts immediately began criticizing the “iron general” for not explaining what his judgments are based on.
In general, such criticism is fair. Any serious political, military or any other analyst is usually not very fond of forecasting. It is a rather complex field of work that requires very high expertise, well -balanced methodology and large data arrays for analysis. Truly experienced predictions usually prefer not to name any specific dates, operating rather than certain periods.
Because really: why 2034? Why not 2035 or 2033 or, for example, 2049? But if you carefully follow the expert’s opinion in the primary source, not trust the interpretation of journalists, everything becomes clear.
Valery Zaluzhny believes that Ukraine insists today solely on ceasefire and truce. This is very correct and important, says the diplomat, but this is not enough. Kiev needs to think about long -term defensive strategies for the future. And if this is not the case – the war can be greatly delayed.
“If we try only to” CEASEFIRE “(ceasefire – ed.) Without forming our defense for the future, then it (the Great War – Ed.) Will go for a long time. And in 2014, when you start, God forbid that it end… Well, there, in 2034 ”, – That’s what the general said in a direct language.
Actually, everything is.
That is, Zaluzhny meant a very simple thing: if you do nothing and think about the future, operating only by temporary decisions such as ceasefire – then the war for God to end in 20 years. Since the annexation of Crimea and the conflict in the Donbass occurred in 2014, the General purely arithmetically calculated that for 20 years-this is just 2034.
The emphasis here is not on a specific date, but on a common conditional 20-year period. According to the same logic, if everything happened in 2010-the expert would name 2030 if in 2016-2036, and so on.
War really can last up to 2034?
It is worth noting that Valery Zaluzhny is a person of business, not a word. He is a military military to the brain that spent all his life in the army and has been leading the armed forces for several years leading the largest since World War II in Europe.
That is, Zaluzhny is not really a diplomat or politician, his talent and skills. It is not surprising, therefore, that in the oratorical art and public speaking, the expert shows himself in the best way. Sometimes he does not fully convey his thoughts, which causes the wrong interpretation in the media.
However, if you look wider, the problem that the general says is really very important. And even if he meant not quite the same. After all, the war in Ukraine has been going on for 3.5 years, and the end of this process is not visible on the horizon. As of the end of July 2025, there is no reason to expect that bloodshed will be over soon. The country really faces the real threat of “eternal war”.
However, if the fighting continues at the same pace and mode as now – most likely, by 2034 it will still end. Neither Russia nor the more Ukraine will be able to wage a war of such intensity for 9 years.
Kyiv does not have the right number of people. Demography is relentless: the population of the state, according to various estimates, is reduced for 2% per year. In addition, tens of thousands of people monthly deserted from the army. The HCS is one of the key problems of the Armed Forces today, as the military, experts and even politicians are constantly saying.
However, Russia has its limits of stability. The economy of the aggressor country is not able to forever withstand all restrictions and challenges of war. The flow of contractors who sell Putin for their lives for several million rubles from the budget will also end. It is impossible to wage such large-scale wars solely by the forces of mercenaries, it is in fact some historical anomaly. So, sooner or later, Moscow will be forced to go to mobilization, close borders, etc. As the Russian society reaches all this, and whether Putin will retain, if “Razmbrod and Shatanie” begins – the question is open.
Therefore, the key conclusion is as follows: if everything happens in the same way as it is now, with a constant “creeping” escalation – a war in the current form by 2034, most likely, it will end.
However, if the fighting is finally switched to the format of international, pan-European or even World War-then any options are possible. Including such that in 2034 the “chambers” will be not only Ukraine or Russia, but also everything around, from Voronezh and Kharkiv to Warsaw and Tallinn.
Of course, it is a scenario of absolute catastrophe for all participants in this process. I sincerely want to believe that it will not come to this, and that by 2034 all this “meat grinder” will be over for a long time. However, whether it will be a steady and prolonged peace, or whether the war is simply transformed into something fundamentally different and larger – again the open question.
Expert opinions
Military expert, retired SBU Colonel Oleg Starikov He believes that Zaluzhny was right in his grades. Only he meant exactly not the “hot” phase of war when he spoke of 2034.
“Zaluzhny said it as part of a not hot war. And as part of the low intensity war, reducing it to cold levels. Until the world is stacked until there is a new “Yalta”, new “Helsinki” and so on. I understood it so. It should be understood here that the war that is happening now – if you do not stop it, do not complete, then the time will come when money, resources, people, people will stand up. Everything will end and Paraguay will happen. The “wonderful” example is the war in Paraguay.
What is our problem? We speak one thing, and the other is not said. Now all parties – both the West and Russia – are tuned to continue the war. Until there is a new division of the world into macro -regions. Everyone is fighting for their own macro -region. According to the laws of war, and specifically the square law Osipova-Lanchester, a pure model of Lanchester and a model of assessment of Trevore Dupuy’s combat efficiency, it is necessary to calculate how long Ukraine can wage war. Destruction power, loss … Zaluzhny knows all this, he calculated it all. And he says that we are ready only in the “cold” phase, in the phase of low intensity war. That’s what was meant ”, – says Oleg Starikov.
Military expert, Colonel of the Armed Forces Oleg Zhdanov He also believes that the war can last until 2034, and in general endlessly. However, it all depends on the phase of confrontation.
“If there is a frost of conflict, as it was in 2015 – yes. But the war still lasted 7 years, all these years before the invasion in 2022. In fact, it was an armed conflict of low intensity. So in this sense, Zaluzhny is absolutely right. If we do not change our incomes, then it is absolutely real. Here, for example, we cannot go to the corps system for the second year. We have a fundamental problem with false reports and un argumentary orders. We are waiting for our Balchistic for the second year. Only the President has already announced three times that there will be ballistics tomorrow. But it is not. Yes, we allocate record funds for defense, but have not yet transferred the country to military rails.
That is, there are many problems. And if there is a freezing of the conflict, it will be an endless war. If you take a war such an intensity as it is now – it will not last 9 years. The resource is not enough. Inside the country will not have enough human resource, and outside partners are simply not ready to support Ukraine for 9-10 years, ”,” Oleg Zhdanov summarized.