“The defense worked to the maximum.” A leading expert analyzes the attacks on substations and gas storage facilities and predicts recovery times

— At the beginning of September, there was an analysis of the Center for countering disinformation. At that time, it was predicted that under an optimistic scenario, there might not be up to 12 hours of daylight in winter, and under a pessimistic scenario, up to 20 hours. How should these forecasts change now — after the blow to our energy?

— In general, it is very difficult for me to comment on the forecasts of the Center for Combating Disinformation regarding the development of events in the energy sector. Somehow these two phrases do not stick in my head.

Look, the situation is quite complicated, but at the same time completely controlled. The blows that were inflicted today were inflicted primarily on the infrastructure of high-voltage networks, primarily on high-voltage substations.

And they can be divided into three main groups.

One group of strikes was aimed at knocking nuclear plants off the system, isolating them. And in this way, to stop the main flow of electricity, which feeds the energy industry of Ukraine today.

There were a lot of blows. It is these objects that are protected, in particular by the so-called protection of the second level of fortification. And it must be admitted that this defense worked at its maximum – not even at its expected maximum. Neither missile strikes nor drone strikes actually destroyed key pieces of equipment that were protected, primarily autotransformers.

There is damage to auxiliary equipment. There is a need for its restoration. Due to the fact that part of the blows were inflicted by cluster munitions, unfortunately, a lot of time is spent on demining. Cluster ammunition is dangerous because most of these cluster elements do not explode immediately. Accordingly, before the power engineers can begin repairs, the miners must work, the sappers must work and clear the territory of the damaged and affected substation.

Therefore, the number 1 goal was such substations.

And targets No. 2 and No. 3 were substations that are responsible for powering large cities. Both in Ternopil region, in Lviv region, and in the south of Ukraine, there were a lot of strikes on those substations that are responsible for the delivery of electricity to cities.

A difficult situation, indeed, in some cities, because some of these high-voltage substations were next in line for the construction of fortifications. There were no fortifications there. They just didn’t have time physically – neither the resource nor the time was enough. And there is also damage to autotransformers, there is damaged heavy equipment – it will take more time to fully restore power.

Some operational power supply, in the mode of 8-12 hours per day, will be restored, I think, during today’s day, at most – tomorrow.

As for the picture across the country, today [вимикають електроенергію у] three queues. This is due to the fact that there is some damage. I think that tomorrow or the day after tomorrow there will be two queues at the most, and then one. Because, of course, the main focus of recovery lies in this direction.

There were also strikes on gas storage facilities. They were not effective. There is some damage, thank God no one was hurt. I think that in the shortest possible time the effects of these impacts will be completely recovered, the equipment will be restored and everything will work normally.

— Were the strikes on gas storage facilities aimed at leaving Ukrainians without heating?

— To be honest, this is more of an act of intimidation of Europeans who store gas in Ukrainian storage facilities. It is aimed more at them, to reduce the presence of European gas in Ukrainian storage facilities.

Because Moscow terrorists well understand that, most likely, transit [російського газу через Україну] will be stopped, they will not be able to supply gas to Europe; and in this way they are trying to additionally intimidate Europe, that “look, we will block your access to Ukrainian storage facilities.” They will not succeed. And these efforts, in my opinion, cannot bring success. Nevertheless, they depict something.

— DTEK has published a schedule of stabilization shutdowns. It is assumed that consumers in Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk region will have two hours of light, those who are lucky will have three hours. Should it be considered as a temporary limitation and will it be better in the future?

— I am almost certain that the situation will be noticeably better at night. Today, indeed, there are at least three queues of outages. This is due to the fact that it is necessary to urgently restore high-voltage substations, it is necessary to carry out these works as soon as possible. But at the same time, these restrictions make it possible to speed up the recovery work. Therefore, I think that tomorrow the situation will be better.

– You mentioned fortifications. It is very gratifying to hear that these fortifications worked, that these Russian strikes on these objects did not have the effect they had hoped for. Does air defense remain the main means to protect against Russian missiles and drones?

– You know, this is a complex. Unfortunately, there is not enough air defense in the world to cover Ukraine completely. It just doesn’t exist physically. And we certainly do [всі ці системи] unavailable

Therefore, it is a large complex of protection. It begins with air defense, continues with fortifications and physical ones m protection. Continued with modes of operation of energy during attacks. These predicted preventive outages that are occurring are part of the response that Ukrenergo dispatchers have developed in order to reduce the effects of attacks.

Next, the fastest possible reaction to switching high-voltage and medium-voltage substations takes effect in order to bypass the damage sites as quickly as possible, connect through other surviving channels and restore those people who were left without electricity.

And then – the process of restoring what is damaged is going on as quickly as possible, those elements of the system that can be quickly restored are returning to work as soon as possible.

This is what the protection system looks like now. And I would, in fact, deepen it even more. Because there is still independent power supply of critical infrastructure in cities, in particular [підприємств] heating, water supply. And in many cities, this back-up power supply is well-provided and of high quality.

And finally, there is personal protection of multi-apartment buildings, where people have installed backup power on their pumps, on their own capacities. Someone even installed batteries or batteries and solar panels on apartments. And all this works together as a defense.

This whole system, this whole multi-layered structure is our resistance to energy terror.

— At the beginning of the energy terror, it was about the import of energy from Europe. What role does he play now?

– You know, unfortunately, we do not use this channel to its full extent.

The fact is that electricity in Europe is very expensive now. It’s the winter season when prices go up. And the price of electricity in Europe is quite serious – around €200 per megawatt-hour is currently being traded during peak hours.

And very often due to the fact that there is a price limit on the Ukrainian market, which is artificial, which the regulator, despite the huge, it seems to me, pressure from all sides, does not want to cancel; precisely because of this, we do not use imports to their full extent. Because this limitation of the price on the Ukrainian market does not give [змоги] to buy electricity from Europe when it is more expensive, even for those consumers who are ready to do so.

The second problem is the structure of the Ukrainian market, where we still maintain artificial, low tariffs for the population, and, accordingly, no one is going to and cannot import for the population. There is simply no source of money to cover the expenses that are necessary to take electricity from Europe and transfer it to the population of Ukraine.

This difference is fantastic. There is simply nothing to cover such a difference, the state simply has no money.

— Is there an option for this difference to be covered by our Western partners as part of monetary and financial assistance?

— I would prefer it if Western partners would stimulate private investments in the development of Ukraine’s generation. Instead of paying for electricity imports, it would be better for them to issue wartime insurance, insurance against military and political risks, for private investors who would invest in Ukraine and build power here in our country.

If, say, we are paid 20 million euros for imports, two hours will pass and we have forgotten about these 20 million euros. And if 20 million euros are spent on such insurance, they will build capacity that will literally provide hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians with a stable supply of electricity for many years.