“In the coming days, the currency market will develop by double logic. The dollar remains stable due to the regime of the National Bank’s controlled flexibility, and low inflation in July confirms the effectiveness of monetary policy. Even with demand growth, the regulator has tools to maintain the balance. The euro course is more sensitive to world factors, including the ratio with the dollar, which can lead to correction of the course in UAH. About”, – WRITE ON: ua.news
In the coming days, the currency market will develop by double logic. The dollar remains stable due to the regime of the National Bank’s controlled flexibility, and low inflation in July confirms the effectiveness of monetary policy. Even with demand growth, the regulator has tools to maintain the balance. The euro course is more sensitive to world factors, including the ratio with the dollar, which can lead to correction of the course in UAH.
Taras Lesovy, Head of the Treasury Department of one of the Ukrainian banks in a comment, told about expectations in Ukraine’s foreign exchange market this week in a comment this week this week Invest News.
It is difficult to predict the euro because of geopolitical and economic factors, so accurate dynamics resembles a puzzle. However, it is not necessary to panic – both currencies remain the support of the financial system, and the course of the euro is likely to remain within 48.5-49.5 UAH.
In addition, July became another month with low inflation – according to preliminary estimates, its level did not exceed 0.5-0.7%. This indicates the effectiveness of the NBU currency exchange policy. Even if currency demand grows – for example, 10% – the National Bank retains a sufficient arsenal of instruments to maintain balance, in particular through interventions.
On the other hand, the euro will be more sensitive to external factors. Its dynamics in Ukraine depends to a large extent on the situation in the world currency markets, especially on the ratio of euro/dollar. Under current conditions, it is possible that the euro in UAH equivalent will begin to adjust according to changes in global courses. In particular, the rapprochement of the dollar and the euro in the world can potentially lead to a decrease in the euro in Ukraine.
However, the forecasting of the Eurocurrency is not easy. It is influenced by several variables at once: geopolitical challenges, disputes between key players – US, EU, Brix, and general economic trends. Even the US and EU trade agreement does not give a 100 percent “clarification”: the accurate assessment of the currency behavior has more in common with the analytical puzzle than with a direct formula.
At the same time, there are no reasons for panic. Both the dollar and the euro are key reserve currencies that remain support for the world financial system. Temporary jumps are not a reason for emotional decisions. Most likely, the average euro rate in the coming weeks is held in the range of 48.5-49.5 UAH/euro, even if some days are marked with increased volatility.
The main expression of the foreign exchange market from 4 to 10 August:
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Currency changes corridors: 41.6-42 UAH / $ and 48,5-49,5 UAH / € (on the interbank) and 41.6-42.2 UAH / $ and 48-49,5 UAH / € (in the cash market).
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Daily course changes: to 0.05-0.15 UAH (interbank), to 0.1-0.2 UAH (Kombank), to 0.3 UAH (exchange offices).
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The difference between buying and selling courses: up to 0.15 UAH for $ 1, up to 0.2 UAH per € 1 (interbank), up to 0.5-0.6 UAH per $ 1, up to 0.8-1 UAH per € 1 (Kombank), up to 0.6-1 UAH per $ 1, up to 1-1.3 UAH per € 1 (exchange offices).
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Difference of buying on cash market: 0.2-0.3 UAH for $ 1, 0.3-0.5 for € 1 (Kombank), 0.3-0.5 UAH for $ 1, 0.5-0.7 for € 1 (exchange offices).
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Difference of sales on cash market: 0.1-0.2 UAH for $ 1, 0.2-0.3 UAH for € 1 (Kombank), 0.3-0.5 UAH for $ 1, up to 0.5 UAH for € 1 (exchange offices).
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Depending on the currency, the average difference between interbank and cash market rates – 0,1-0,15 UAH.
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Average weekly course deviations – to 1-1.5% from the initial course of the week.
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Recall that the dollar and euro in Ukrainian exchangers continues to grow – on August 4, the dollar is approaching 42 hryvnia, and the euro is almost 49 hryvnias.
