“The idea of stopping hostilities between Ukraine and Russia by freezing the conflict again in our eyes becomes a key element of American diplomacy on this case. Donald Trump Advisor Michael Voltz in one of the events the parties “closer to peace than ever” and that negotiations that have been held in Saudi Arabia for several past several past.”, – WRITE ON: ua.news
The idea of stopping hostilities between Ukraine and Russia frost conflict again in our eyes becomes a key element American diplomacy According to this case. Donald Trump Advisor Michael Volz In one of the interview the day before stated that the parties are “closer to peace than ever” and that negotiations that have passed in Saudi Arabia over a few past dayswill include stages of gradual ceasefire and “freezing” front lines.
According to this formula, at first there should be a cessation of attacks on Energy Infrastructure – It is already there, but so far it seems only on paper, because the parties accuse each other daily of a constant breakdown of arrangements. Once the moratorium on the blows on the energy must be installed the truce on the Black Sea to allow the movement of grain and energy resources – The Russian Federation, the USA and Ukraine were just talking in Saudi Arabia. AND Next – Discussion of verification and support mechanisms Silence on the collision line For the sake of providing long -term peace.
As a result, the United States offers Ukraine and Russia an option for which the fighting stops where they are, in fact, turning the front line into a new border. And this is not like “long -term peace”. Rather, it is reminiscent of ordinary freezing of conflict.
That is Such an initiative is neither a legally fixed peace nor a long -term solution geopolitical conflict. This is a technical compromise that looks like a temporary way out of the situation, but does not eliminate the causes of war.
What are the positions of the parties, which is wrong with the idea of freezing and will the negotiations on such a format of the war will become generally successful? Political observer Ua.news Nikita Trachuk Together with the experts he dealt with the question.
American approach: Bid on personal arrangements
Washington seems to be betting not on a full official peace treaty, but above all informal agreements between Trump and Putin. The US scenario provides for temporary settlement of the conflict through the termination of hostilities through mutual concessions that will not affect the fundamental political positions of the parties.
This approach has already been tested by Trump in international politics. For example, in 2020, he concluded an agreement with the Taliban, which allowed the US to start withdrawing troops from Afghanistan after 18 years of military presence in this country. However, as we know, this arrangement did not lead to a stable peace. In the case of Ukraine and Russia, the risks are even higher, since the freezing of the front line will not only solve the territorial issue, but can also create new threats in the future.
The key problem of this approach is the lack of long -term guarantees. Even if Trump is agreeing with Putin, his presidential term will last a maximum of four years. According to the Constitution of America, he will not be able to become president for the third time.
What happens after he leaves his post? Will the US new administration adhere to informal agreements? And most importantly – will the Kremlin adhere to? There are no answers.
It is also unclear what Trump may be interested in Russia to make her agree to freeze the war. Moscow continues to fight active fighting, fireting peaceful Ukrainian cities, and Putin recently dressed in Khaki. All this speaks of her unwillingness to stop the fighting.
The Russian leadership is unlikely to agree to this option without serious political concessions by the event. For example, in the issue of sanctions, recognition of its control over the occupied territories, a new redistribution of spheres of influence in Europe, or even major geopolitical projects in the same Arctic.
Ukraine’s position: balancing between principles and dependence on the event
The Ukrainian authorities have repeatedly emphasized that it would not agree to freeze the conflict. Official Kyiv emphasizes that any ceasefire without the return of the occupied territories will only give Russia regrouping forces and preparing a new offensive. That is, the Ukrainian side regards it as a strategic trap.
President Zelensky explicitly stated that Ukraine is fighting not only for preserving territorial integrity, but also for its future as an independent country that cannot exist under the constant threat of revenge on the part of the Russian Federation. That is why the head of state emphasized, Kyiv is interested in a sustainable peace, which will make it impossible to start a new war. It is interesting that literally the same thing says Russia – it seems that it is the only coincidence in the positions of warring parties.
However, the reality is that Ukraine depends on the support of the United States and Europe in both military and financial. And above all, it is from America, although there are now attempts to diversify this addiction towards deepening cooperation with the EU.
If the Trump administration begins to be actively pressed against the truce (which is already happening), Ukraine will not be able to withstand this pressure, even with all statements about the unacceptability of such a scenario. That is, the space for the maneuver is actually quite small.
At the same time, Ukrainian society is also ambiguous about the possible freezing of the war. On the one hand, many people are tired of constant destruction and want to return to normal. On the other hand, much of the citizens are not ready to put up with the situation where some of the territories will remain under the control of Russia, and the war will only be suspended but not complete.
Although sociology proves that most Ukrainians still stand for at least some, but the cessation of war – though with some nuances in the views of respondents. Such citizens are already 70%.
Partial truce started to work?
Already on the evening of March 25, the positions of the parties after negotiations in Riyadh. This was discussed both in Kiev and in Moscow. In short, it seems that it was from Tuesday, March 25 that a partial truce and a moratorium on energy shots and combat activity in the Black Sea began to operate.
One of the very important points in the statements of all three sides – the moratorium will only relate to energy objects. That is, it is not about all infrastructure, as some considered before, but exclusively about specialized energy.
In addition, Kyiv and Moscow VA agrees to the truce in the Black Sea. However, the Russian version has important nuances.
First, Russians want to be able to control the judiciary and inspect vessels. That is, Moscow plans to control all the deliveries that go to Ukrainian ports so that we do not receive military cargo on the sea. Neither Americans nor Ukraine says anything.
Secondly, Russia is ready to stop fire in the Black Sea, when the United States shall relieve sanctions from the Rosselgobank and other financial organizations involved in international food trade. These organizations will need to be connected to the SWIFT system and open all legal accounts. That is, Moscow requires Americans to abolish a whole list of restrictions and sanctions concerning Russian international trade.
Third, the Russians say in a statement of moratorium on energy blows that he started operating on March 18, 2025-after Putin and Trump’s telephone conversation. Ukraine does not specify any dates here, but it summarizes that the ceasefire starts from the moment of announcement from the US. It turns out that from a Russian point of view, there are two truce with different dates: March 18 and March 25, but it is not clear whether it comes into force, because even partial sanctions are not so fast.
The dry residue remains only to be so modest, but still the achievements of the parties on the way to at least attempts to ensure peace. And also carefully observe whether these arrangements will be carried out.
