Summer offensive of the Russian Federation 2025: Where will Putin hit?

Despite the formal start of formal peace talks in Istanbul, the parties are really as far from peace today as it can be imagined. The war is only intensified and escaped.

Recently, the Russians have intensified their offensive actions and terror of Ukrainian cities. Also on June 1, Ukraine held a brilliant military point Wide Web Operation By struck by Russian strategic aviation. In response, the Russian Federation became even more bombing peaceful cities. In particular, Kharkiv, Odessa and Kiev, who recently survived one of the largest UAV plaque during the entire time of aggression, gets very much.

All experts, governments and intelligence agree that Russia’s negotiations are not currently needed. After all, Putin is clearly preparing for a summer campaign, which, according to the Country Committee of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Alexander Sirsky, has already begun. Heavy battles continue throughout the front line, unfortunately, territorial losses are recorded in some areas, and defense forces are forced to retreat.

What will be the main directions of the summer offensive? Where does Putin want to hit? UA.news political observer Nikita Trachuk Together with the experts he dealt with the question.

The Donetsk region remains the key goal of the Russian Federation at least since 2014. Actually, nothing has changed in 2025. Politically and ideologically it is still a priority for Moscow region.

After all, even in 2022, it formally began, including for “our compression on the Donbass”. In addition, in the fall of 2022 the Russian Federation announced the annexation of the region. So it is obvious that the offensive in the Donbass will continue in the future – although, in fact, it has never stopped. In total, there are several main areas in the Donetsk region where the enemy tries to move forward.

First, it is a ray ravine area, for which battles have been ongoing for the second year. Russia tries to capture the city and at the same time develop a movement in the Grigorivka area. Thus, the enemy wants to move closer to Konstantinovka and Druzhkivka, in order to eventually go on the border of Kramatorsk-Slavic agglomeration-key cities of Ukrainian Donbass, not yet captured by the Russian Federation. This is an important goal for Moscow: both purely military and political and ideological.

Secondly, the offensive in the Pokrovsk region does not stop. This city is constantly appearing in the materials and reports of the Western media. For example, recently about the difficult situation around the settlement wrote The Economist . He is also regularly remembered by President Zelensky in his appeals. In this direction, the Russian Federation comes near Mirolyubivka, Sandy and Lucky, trying to take Pokrovsky-Mirnograd agglomeration in the ring.

Third, the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region continue. In the area of ​​Novooleksandrivka, Kotlyarivka, Nut and Green Field, advanced assault detachments of the enemy have already come close to Dnipropetrovsk. Information and psychological operations are not stopped by the Russian Federation, the purpose of which is to convince everyone that the Russian army is already in the territory of this region.

However, in the General Staff, this is refuted. The Deepstate map also shows that the Russians have not crossed the border of the Dnipropetrovsk region, although they are already near it. The three directions in the Donbass will become the most likely key to Russia in her summer campaign.

Summer offensive of the Russian Federation 2025: Dnipropetrovsk region

As noted above, as of now, the Russian Federation has not yet entered the territory of Dnipropetrovsk and has not even crossed its border. It was achieved except for individual assault groups exclusively for propaganda purposes: to say that, they say, “we are already here.”

But hostilities shows that in the Dnipropetrovsk region the Russians still remain 2-3 kilometers, depending on the front area. Also there is no threat to the city of Dnipro and other large settlements of the region, which ua.news wrote earlier.

However, in general, the situation for Dnipropetrovsk is deteriorating. It is potential that during the summer of 2025 the Russians will be able to start an offensive on this area, creating a bridgehead there. Then there will be a direct threat to many small settlements and villages located near the border with Donetsk region.

However, to the first or less large settlements of Dnipropetrovsk, the Russians still remain many tens of kilometers. For this war, such a distance is superfluous and can be passed for months, if not for years.

So, although the enemy has already approached the borders of Dnipropetrovsk region, and this fact should not be underestimated, it is too early to say about the opening of the new front – at least today. For Russians, this is primarily a political and symbolic goal that can be used later during negotiations. In fact, there is no need for the attempts of capturing the largest after the Odessa region of Ukraine: there is neither strength nor means.

Kremlin Summer Campaign 2025: Sumy Region

The Sumy region is now chained by the public. Unfortunately, the enemy is moving more actively than in all other areas. In the first 10 days of the summer, the Russians seized about 100 km² of Ukrainian territory. In recent weeks, according to Deepstate, the Russian Federation has occupied more than 200 km² in this direction. The size of the gray zone is also constantly growing.

In fact, in Sumy region we see “Kursk Operation on the contrary”. In August 2024, Ukraine entered Kurshchyna and kept its bridgehead there for a long time. Now there is almost nothing left of this bridgehead, and the Russians began their own offensive after retreating the Armed Forces. And now Putin tells About the “buffer zone” in the north of Ukraine.

In the Sumy region, Russia comes towards the city of Sumy, which is only 30 kilometers from the border with the aggressor. Currently, the offensive continues in several directions: in the area of ​​Kindrativka, Andreevka, Oleksiyivka, Yablunovka and Yunakivka.

Apparently, the enemy tries to break through the Khotyn-Pisarivka line. These settlements are near the heights, while the regional center is in the lowlands. If the Russians capture these important altitudes, the city will remain about 17-18 kilometers in a straight line. This is the distance from which the artillery will be reached and FPV drones will be reached.

The latter have already been recorded in the city, but so far these are isolated cases. If the situation continues to develop in a negative scenario, then 250 thousand amounts will actually turn into a “second Kherson”. The Russians will begin to arrange “safari” with the help of drones and to dispose of the city with artillery. This will make it impossible for a normal life for civilians and create a humanitarian crisis, causing the flow of refugees.

However, it is not about admiration or at least The environment of the regional center. The Russians do not have enough forces for operations of this scale, which confirm both domestic military experts and even individual Z-bloggers and “military” of the Russian Federation.

Expert opinions

Military Expert, SBU Colonel retired Oleg Starikov He believes that the summer campaign of the Russian Federation has already started and is gaining momentum. But so far, only her first phase is ongoing. However, you can now determine the direction of the main and distracting blow.

“The main blow is to Konstantinovka, and in general, everything related to the South Donbass. The distracting blow is everything else, including the Sumy region. Why these areas? Because the enemy has found our weaknesses in these areas. He suspended the promotion in the Pokrovsky direction, which has long been the most important. And he hit where the weakness was … The main goal of the summer campaign is to occupy the whole territory of Donetsk region in Pokrovsk inclusive. Thus, the Russian Federation wants to provide for itself a bridgehead for the further environment of Pokrovsk, but it will be more likely to be an autumn-winter campaign ”, – says Starikov.

According to the expert, everything concerns the Sumy region – in his opinion, a distracting blow related to the creation of a “buffer zone”. Sumy region and Kharkiv region are intelligence, not real attempts to seize regions.

“Activity there is needed so that we do not have time to transfer reserves to the main direction. We have signs of a tactical crisis in these areas. If the reserves are not thrown, this crisis will intensify. But the collapse of the front at the moment I consider it impossible. In general, the exhaustion war continues. The actions of the Russian Federation show that they are not going to strike a decisive blow so that the front will collapse. They intend to continue to press further. It is a war on exhaustion for the purpose of “coercing to peace”, before signing the Kremlin peaceful proposals ”, Said Oleg Starikov.

Military expert Oleg Zhdanov He also believes that the main direction for the movement of Russians this summer will remain Donbas. Everything else is indirectly and “residual principle”.

“What about Dnipropetrovsk region – if it is touched, except that” tangent “, partially. Now the Russians need to master the borders of Donetsk region. Therefore, a certain event at some depth of the Dnipropetrovsk region is inevitable. By the way, the local administration states that a powerful line of defense has been built in Dnipropetrovsk. Most likely, it will become the front line.

In general, in the summer offensive of Russia there are three key areas. It is Sumy region, although it will not be the main area, but a distracting maneuver. There they delay our reserves. The key is the Pokrovsky and Liman directions. These are the main and strategically important things for the Russian Federation. The seizure of these settlements will already make it possible to capture the Slavic-Kramatorsk agglomeration. So above all for the Russians now Donbas. But the autumn-winter campaign, most likely, will take place in the Zaporozhye direction. It is important to understand that without a bridgehead on the right bank – Oleg Zhdanov is convinced.

Summarizing, Donbas remains the main direction to strike the Russian Federation in the summer of 2025. It is there that the aggressor concentrates its key forces and sets strategic tasks. Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy region, where hostilities are already in danger, but these fronts for the aggressor seem to be of secondary importance. As for other directions (south, Kharkiv, etc.), there is now a relatively static front and is unlikely to expect serious changes in the near future.