“The last few days seem to show the transition to a new phase of air war. The second night in a row attacks Ukraine with a huge number of drones. On Sunday night, the aggressor launched 298 UAV on us – it was a record. However, according to the Air Force, this record lasted for a long time. And the next day, on Monday night, May 26 – set”, – WRITE ON: ua.news
The last few days seem to show the transition to a new phase of air war. The second night in a row attacks Ukraine with a huge number of drones. On Sunday night, the aggressor launched 298 UAV on us – it was a record.
However, according to the Air Force, this record lasted for a long time. And the next day, on Monday night, May 26, a new one was installed: 355 drones. And the western media already go out With alarming headlines – that the reality will soon become a simultaneous thousand drones.
It should be noted that Kyiv does not stay away here and actively increases its own combat capabilities. Thus, in the period of May 20-23, the Russians, according to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, allegedly destroyed 1177 drones of the Armed Forces. Almost 800 of them worked not in the war zone, but tried to break through to Moscow and other cities in the Russian rear. Because of this, flights from Moscow airports were constantly delayed.
This situation may indicate that the war in our eyes is gradually moving into a new, more aggressive and cruel phase. However, there is a popular belief that we are currently seeing almost the final escalation before a sharp breakthrough in a peaceful process: for example, before concluding a 30-day truce.
So what is it about now? We really are on the threshold of peace, before which parties try to do each other as much harm as possible? On the contrary: such blows and massive attacks only make it impossible and so heavy peace? UA.news political observer Nikita Trachuk Together with the experts he dealt with the question.
Daily Terror: As the Russian Federation firing Ukraine with a record number of drones
The last two nights have been very difficult for both the people of Kyivans and many Ukrainians in other cities of the country that attacked the enemy. But it was, of course, forces of defense. And specifically – to the fighters of the air defense calculations.
According to the Air Force, the night of May 25 and 26 became a record in terms of the number of launched UAVs: 298 and 355 drones-Kamikadze, respectively. The forces of air defense in general work successfully, they manage to eliminate up to 80-90% of goals. However, even the percentages that remain, sometimes hit the target or just fall where they will have to destroy, loud explosions and, unfortunately, the injuries and deaths of Ukrainians.
Now Moscow is hardly used to use missiles. If previously massive shelling was marked by starting several hundred units of such shells, then the Russians have almost completely abandoned such tactics. Instead, they will “nightmare” with drones.
It has both military and economic logic, because UAV is much cheaper and easier in production. At the same time, Russia is constantly improving the murder of Ukrainians. Experts They saythat new enemy drones are no longer so sensitive to the ERBs that use the Armed Forces. That is, to eliminate such air targets becomes much more difficult than it was before.
More: the capacity of Russian drones production increases. Previously, the Russian Federation produced about 300 UAVs a month. Now she does so much for just three days. In the near future, the enemy plans to increase volumes to 500 units a day. And for a while, a new reality will be a simultaneous coating of up to 1000 Shahaned. No air defense in the world is able to cope with so many simultaneous goals 100%.
If the ceasefire negotiations fail, the peaceful process will fall, and the war will continue – then Ukraine will have problems with the air defense system. Actually, they already exist, but they will become even more serious. Then the defense forces will have to “normalize” deficient and expensive interceptors. And this will significantly reduce the efficiency of complexes that protect the Ukrainian sky.
Problems with air defense: already exist and will be worse?
It should be noted that problems with air defense because of the huge number of goals that the Russian Federation launches on us is not something new. For such a large country as Ukraine, the issue of protecting the sky is a “chronic” weakness. There will never be a lot of defense systems, but there will always be little. All because of the territorial scale of the Ukrainian state, which is simply impossible to protect by 100% – well, or for this it will require hundreds, if not thousands, installations and complexes.
Another problem except for the insufficient number of air defense systems for this weapon. The fact is that the missiles for Western complexes are expensive and produced by limited batches.
Yes French edition Le Monde writesthat the Armed Forces have already ended missiles for SAMP-T anti-aircraft batteries that were handed over to Italy and France. We also did not receive an ammunition for Crotale air defense for a long time.
Western media is not written about this problem for the first time. And Ukraine, in fact, does not hide chronic missile shortages. President Zelensky and other power -holders regularly ask Western countries to provide or sell more of the missile. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently acknowledged this, saying that Kiev is trying to get the Americans of Patriot (both missiles and systems) that Washington simply does not have.
Each missile for the latest Western complexes costs at least $ 1 million. In some places the price tag up to $ 7-8 million. For comparison, “Shahamed”, which will be spent on this rocket (and maybe not one) costs $ 30-50 thousand.
This simple arithmetic is as eloquent and demonstrates the complexity of the problem. For war, this intensity is needed more than we do, but even our partners. Therefore, it is easy to predict that in the future, given the increase in the number of simultaneous goals that the Russian Federation launches on us, problems with air defense systems and ammunition will only grow for them.
Already, Ukraine is more relied on mobile fire calculations that work on drone drones or light zenots. The Armed Forces also actively use Western aircraft (F-16 and others) as air defense forces. Unfortunately, this does not solve this fully.
Peaceful process in Ukraine: there is no progress
In the context of all of the above, it is important to consider the condition in which there are currently negotiations on peace or at least ceasefire in Ukraine. Even a superficial analysis of this topic gives every reason to claim that this condition is unfortunately close to the coma.
May 16 in Turkey took place the first straight lines talks Russians and Ukrainians over three years of war. In a vacuum, this event looked like a breakthrough, as proof of the very fact of such communication. And 10 days later we are forced to fix that D The meeting did not lead to any fundamental consequences. The only thing that happened was a large -scale exchange of prisoners. But such processes continue constantly, exchanges regularly occurred before negotiations.
The problem here is not even fundamentally different Diplomacy styles Kiev and Moscow. The problem in the very existence of Ukraine as an independent state. Until Russia is embarrassing with this fact – it is unlikely that the possibility of ending the war can hardly be said.
Negotiations are currently objectively delayed. On Monday, May 26, Russian Presidential President Dmitry Peskov said he was not aware of the next date of the Ukrainian and Russian delegations. The Kremlin was also accused of the Armed Forces that they “beat civilian infrastructure”-as they say, whose bending.
An indicative factor in the crisis in negotiations is the recent publications of Russian expulsion Dmitry Medvedev. He published a map of Ukraine, which almost all was marked as a “buffer zone” between the Russian Federation and Europe. According to Medvedev, “the buffer zone will look like this” if the event does not stop helping the Bandera regime. It looks like a frank abuse of the very idea of Ukrainian statehood and cannot be regarded other than the threat of Ukraine’s full occupation.
Also reminded that not so long ago there was a second telephone conversation between Putin and Trump. Public attention is currently drawn to the President of the United States: he has publicly talked about “wonderful relations” with a Russian dictator, and that there will be peace soon. As a result, the Russian Federation is in Ukraine a record number of drones, which clearly does not indicate fast peace.
Against the background of this rhetoric, the American leader changes. Today, he, among other things, annoyed that Putin is crazy, he “just kills a bunch of people” and that Trump doesn’t like it. However, so far in words everything ends. The overall reaction of the US to a clear brutal escalation from the Kremlin looks weak and indistinct.
Expert opinions
UA.news turned to two experts: military specialist, SBU Colonel retired Oleg Starikov and political scientist, director of the Center for Applied Political Studies “Penta” Vladimir Fesenko.
Answering questions regarding the shortage deficit to air defense complexes, Oleg Starikov noted that there are several aspects here: political, military and economic-industrial.
“The most expensive thing that is in the war is the creation of a comprehensive air defense system. When this system was created by the USSR in the last century, its creators said that it was a task at the level of nuclear potential. That is the level, it is very difficult. Hundreds of billion dollars are needed to create a complete air defense system. The air defense complexes were provided to us, the complexes are good and high quality, with efficiency up to 80%. But they are very expensive. Radar systems are most expensive in air defense complexes. They are often hunted by the enemy. Missiles are consumable material. The enemy does everything to reduce the level of protection of our sky. There is a constant hunt for air defense systems. Plus it is so that we are firing as much as possible with these complexes so that our ammunition will be depleted … In the last days we see a classic air operation. Not only was the attack on objects. It was also the detection and exhaustion of the air defense forces, ” – explains Starikov.
According to him, one rocket for Patriot costs from $ 3 to $ 8 million. This is the market value. Cost is a million.
“How many rockets are produced for Patriot per year? 600 pieces per year in the US. About 100 more rockets are made by Japan by license. That is, these missiles in the required quantities for war are not physically. The cost of a missile for SAMP-T is $ 2 million. They also produce little. The same situation with Crotale. That is, these products are very expensive. Shakhda missiles worth $ 50,000 – this will not withstand any economy of the world. It is necessary for the MPC to work on us, ” – the expert comments.
According to Starikov, the way out of this pathological situation is very simple: to develop your own air defense system and your missiles, as well as to modernize your complexes.
“We can produce our anti -aircraft missiles. We have all the necessary production. If we ourselves produce complexes and missiles, as well as to spend ammunition economically – the situation will improve ”, Said Oleg Starikov.
Political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko on how the obvious escalation of the war correlates with the peace process after Istanbul, that in Turkey we observed a purely propaganda action that had nothing to do with the peace process. The only positive meeting is a large -scale exchange, but it was preparing for negotiations.
“The negotiations in Istanbul were insisted on Americans. Only that was why they happened. Putin demonstrated that he was allegedly ready. It is an event of a tactical nature where each party played a role for the United States. The peaceful process has actually started the states since February. And Istanbul became only one of the stages of the state. But most experts, including I, were skeptical of efficiency … After Istanbul it became obvious that there was no result. It’s a dead end. Russia demonstrates all the same as it has been demonstrated before. The Kremlin strategy is to wage and strengthen the war against Ukraine at the same time, and negotiations only for Trump’s sake and preserving the prospect of a personal negotiation process between him and Putin. It’s rather imitation rather than real negotiations ”, – says Fesenko.
According to the political scientist, if it were not for the Trump factor, Putin would not have any negotiations at all. And their paradox is that they are held both the Russian Federation and to some extent Ukraine only for the US President.
“It’s a theater for one viewer. However, we, unlike Russia, are interested in the negotiations. At least in the form of a ceasefire … But now, unfortunately, it is impossible to agree on the end of the war. The contradiction between Ukraine and Russia is too sharp. And this is a problem that Trump does not understand. Therefore, all Russian proposals, all these memoranda and so on are simularities, it is a “deception”. In the coming months we will see two parallel processes: negotiations that will not produce results, and thus strengthening the war, ” – summarized Vladimir Fesenko.
As a result, it can be argued that today, unfortunately, nothing says that the war is already close to the end, and the current escalation will suddenly interrupt with a particular form of peace or at least cease to fire. On the contrary, everything indicates that Putin is more confident in his abilities and plans to “see”, as he himself said, Ukraine is further. Therefore, the further intensification of air terror and new offensives on the front should be expected.