“The hardest winter in the history of Ukraine is gradually coming to an end. February 6 is on the calendar, and it is certainly too early to say that “the winter period is over.” Nevertheless, there is no doubt that this winter the Ukrainian state will somehow, through superhuman efforts, still pass. All this time, the Russian Federation tried to freeze Ukrainians in their own homes”, — write on: ua.news
The hardest winter in the history of Ukraine is gradually coming to an end. February 6 is on the calendar, and it is certainly too early to say that “the winter period is over.” Nevertheless, there is no doubt that this winter the Ukrainian state will somehow, through superhuman efforts, still pass.
All this time, the Russian Federation tried to freeze Ukrainians in their own homes — and unfortunately, it partially succeeded: the regime operates in the energy sector state of emergency thousands of houses in Kyiv, Kharkiv and other cities remain without heat, water and light, new frosts and new blows are expected.
This “internal front” for some time interrupted the events on the conventional front. However, recently there has been no talk of any large-scale combat operations: due to the severe frosts, the parties have firmly dug into their own frozen fortifications and, as a rule, do not take any overly active actions.
However, soon the frosts and snows will recede, and warm spring weather will come in their place. And that is when, most likely, we should expect the next offensive of the Russian Armed Forces: the spring-summer campaign of 2026.
What can this campaign be like and what are the main directions of enemy attacks expected by military experts? More details – in the material UA.News.
There are two key scenarios of the new offensive of the Russian Federation: Israel Defense Forces officer Yigal Levin
The direction “Slovyansk-Kramatorsk” looks more than obvious. The Russians need to press this direction in order to occupy this largest fortified area. And then, at least formally, they will be able to talk about the fact that the goals of the “SVO” have been fulfilled, because they have occupied Donbas, the entire Donetsk region.
This will allow the same Putin to at least somehow sell the war to his society in the event of a freeze, which the Americans insist on. Because if we freeze now, then their whole narrative that “all the objectives of the SVO will be fulfilled” will fall apart – and they keep saying this, as well as that everything is going according to plan. Well, even complete morons have a question: if everything is going according to plan, why didn’t they squeeze a piece of the so-called “DPR-LPR”?
That is, this direction looks obvious, intuitive, for this you do not need to be a military specialist to understand that if they have any plans there, they try to think two steps, two heads higher and more cunning – they can expect that Ukraine will concentrate all its forces there. So they will strike in a different direction — for example, in Zaporizhzhia. Although we have not always seen such ingenuity on the part of the Russians. Often they do everything “head on”. But from the point of view of military strategy, it is extremely logical and extremely consistent.
That is, if there is some area and it is clear that there is a political goal and the will to occupy it, it is clear that then there will be large enemy forces in this area. However, then Ukraine will have fewer forces in other areas, and it is precisely on these that you can try to implement your offensive.
Therefore, it intuitively seems that the key direction of the new campaign will be Sloviansk-Kramatorsk, but if we look in the direction of a more subtle, intelligent strategy, then the Zaporizhia direction may well be real and dangerous. There are, of course, other scenarios, but there are only two key ones: the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration and Zaporizhzhia.
We have a real chance of ending the war — but there is a nuance: military columnist Kostyantyn Mashovets
The enemy has obviously already started preparing for this year’s summer campaign. Therefore, I personally do not see any point in discussing what everyone calls the “peace process”, its course, content, and even more so any time frame.
Conventionally speaking, everything will revolve around two possible (hypothetical) operational offensive operations of the Russian troops, the beginning of which can be expected from the end of April 2026. With a high probability, they can become: Slavyansko-Kramatorsk and Orikhovo-Zaporizka. Or their combination by terms and place.
So, until the end of spring, it is obvious that the Russian command will be busy with several things related to the preparation of this campaign: the formation and deployment of strategic reserves, the accumulation of material and technical resources of the operational and strategic levels in the relevant directions, the preliminary occupation of the starting areas and boundaries for the operational deployment of the relevant strike groups of troops, the implementation of a set of measures to comprehensively cover this type of deployment (starting with air defense and ending with counterintelligence measures and EW), as well as conducting a covert operational-strategic reorganization of forces and assets in accordance with the operational deployment plan of certain groups.
At the moment, the Russian command is facing the greatest difficulties regarding point number three. Those groups of the enemy’s troops, which are entrusted with its implementation, are stuck in the tactical zone in the corresponding directions. The pace of their progress does not correspond to all the “rigidly established” and pre-planned deadlines set aside for this task. But at the same time, the Russian command does not have a particular desire to use its strategic reserves (which it has been carefully and meticulously trying to accumulate since late autumn last year) to speed up its implementation.
In this connection, I would consider the participation of representatives of the Russian military-political leadership in the so-called peace process exclusively as an attempt to cover up their real plans for the summer campaign this year. In a broader sense, the Kremlin will obviously make another (and probably the last in this war) attempt this year to end it by force on the terms it needs. If it fails, like the previous ones, we will really have a real chance of ending the war.
There is a threat to Zaporizhzhia in the spring and summer: military expert Oleg Zhdanov
The Russians have already determined the direction of the main strike. This is Zaporozhye. They are already moving there, and in the future they plan to storm Zaporizhzhia.
We look at absolute numbers and statistics, but we need to look deeper. For example, the Pokrovsky direction is huge, it is a quarter of the entire front line. And there will always be the largest number of assaults and attacks on our positions. But if you take a kilometer of the front, then this is Gulyaipole. This is the main direction today.
For more than a month, the Russian Air Force has been concentrating its main forces there. Troops are already being drawn up there. The forces were partially withdrawn from the Kherson and Dnipro directions, they were also withdrawn from Pokrovsky and Oleksandrovsky. And all this extends to Gulyaipole.
That is, the summer campaign is the Zaporizhzhia region. And perhaps they will even try to force the Dnieper in order to take the right-bank part of Zaporizhzhia and, if successful, Kherson regions.
There is a threat to Zaporizhzhia. But theoretical. Question to the hundred strength of our defense. If we withstand the pressure, everything will be fine. If they break through, they will have to fight for the regional center itself.
The problem is that long-range systems of the Russian Federation already reach Zaporizhzhia. If the Russians cross the Konka River in the Stepnohirsk or Primorsk region, field artillery will reach Zaporizhzhia. It will be the same as it was with Kharkiv in 2022. So the threat is real, and we need to pay attention to it now.
Everyone understands everything and is ready for challenges: the commander of the intelligence unit of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Denys Yaroslavskyi
If the Russian Federation does not get what it demands in the negotiation process, it will start an active offensive operation already this spring. We have such information and it is absolutely accurate.
This winter they are “finishing up” critical energy infrastructure against civilians. But they are already planning an offensive at the front in the spring.
We are ready for it. First of all, it will be the Gulyaipil direction. It is also important for them, but Donbas remains strategically important above all. In this way, they want to pressure us to change the negotiating position, first of all regarding the same Donetsk region.
Everyone understands everything. Everyone is ready for these challenges. So let the politicians and diplomats do their job, and the armed forces do theirs.
Read us on Telegram and Sends