“Russia’s offensive “buried”. Why it happened and for a long time – Air Force Analysis Ukraine on February 5, 02:47 To share: Ukrainian military near the front line in Kharkiv (photo: Reuters) The number of combat clashes at the front in Ukraine fell to the lowest performance in half a year. Similarly, the promotion of the Russian army in almost all areas. Whether it has long been the Air Force journalist Ukraine Oleg Chernysh. NV publishes his material”, – WRITE ON: ua.news
Russia’s offensive “buried”. Why it happened and whether for a long time – Air Force Analysis of Ukraine Ukrainian military near the front line in Kharkiv region (photo: Reuters)
The number of combat clashes at the front in Ukraine fell to the lowest rates in half a year. Similarly, the promotion of the Russian army in almost all areas. Whether it has long been the Air Force journalist Ukraine Oleg Chernysh. NV publishes its material on the rights of information cooperation.
During the day of February 2, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine counted 97 fighting in all areas of the front. This is the lowest in the past half of the year.
The last time less than 100 combatants were recorded on August 9, 2024. At that time, the powerful spring-summer offensive campaign of the Russian Army. In addition, it was somewhat disorganized due to the unexpected invasion of the Armed Forces units in the Kursk region on August 6.
In recent months, military analysts have also recorded the extinction of autumn-winter Russian offensive. He brought the Kremlin the greatest territorial achievements since the beginning of a full -scale war, but needed tremendous losses in living strength and technology.
The reasons “braking”
According to the calculations of the analytical portal DeepState, in January this year the army of the Russian Federation occupied 325 km of Ukrainian territory. This is the least past six months.
“The enemy continues to take active offensive actions in many areas, but almost everywhere it is possible to slow down the pace of the offensive. Basically, significant enemy promotion occurs through our mistakes that are constantly repeated, ”analysts say.
The Commander -in -Chief of the Armed Forces Alexander Sirsky assures that “the enemy does not reduce the intensity of his attacks.”
At the same time, he said, the situation on the front is now such that it allowed to bring more units from the line of contact and start global reform of the Armed Forces structure for the restoration of combat capability.
Military observer Mikhail Zhirokhov is convinced that the fall in the number of combatants at the front is not so much due to the depletion of the Russian army as with weather conditions. The fact is that January was a record warm for Ukraine.
“The Russians have some losses, they are regrown. But as far as I understand, the main reason is the weather. They are recently unfavorable in the Donbass for active fighting. I mean, strong fogs and a plus temperature, ”he explained the Air Force Ukraine.
Due to the fogs, the work of drones is almost impossible, and the positive weather has led to the fact that soil roads, especially in the steppes of the Southern Donbass, turned into a mud in which the armored vehicles.
Accordingly, the analyst considers, the activation of the Russian offensive can be expected in February, when the forecasts of forecasters will be noticeable.
Fighting in Donetsk
Now the largest number of battles, like last year, is recorded in Donetsk region, namely Pokrovskaya. The Russian army approached the outskirts of the city a few months ago, but the fierce resistance of Ukrainian fighters forced it to slow down.
“They have shocked somewhat, the intensity of their assault actions decreased, but remains high. The resistance for them has become too strong, and they faced objective difficulties, ”the spokesman of the operational-strategic group of troops said on the national telephone. “Khortytsia »Victor Tregubov.
He also used boxing metaphor: “On both sides it is somewhat reminiscent of a boxing match in the tenth round, when both boxers are tired, but the one who was more active at the beginning, tired more and begins to” sigh “on his opponent.”
In some areas near the Pokrovsk units of the Armed Forces, it is even possible to counter the enemy.
Currently, the main battles here are in the area of Kotlyne and lucky villages, next to which is located until recently the last working mine in the production of coled coal.
ReutersUkraine tries not to let the Russians move on the northern – to the highway on Pavlograd and west – to the administrative borders of Dnipropetrovsk region. In both directions, the Russians have to overcome about 4 km.
To the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region, they try to move the wide front. The main fights here are leading along the villages of Uspenivka-Dozhdyka-Silne. A fighter of the Ukrainian 25th Airborne Outstone with a call sign “Much ”in his telegram-channel on February 3 reported that the Russian Federation had seized the village of Silver. There is no official information about this.
The alignment of the flank here is needed by the Russians to increase the pressure on the key node of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces south – in the area Andriyivka-Konstantinpol-Ulakli.
These settlements lie near the Zaporizhzhya-Donetsk highway west Kurakhov. The maintenance of this defense node allows the Ukrainian units to stay in a narrow “Kurakhiv pocket” near the village of Dachne.
Despite the fact that the offensive of the Russian Federation can be restrained, the situation here for the Armed Forces can deteriorate rapidly if the Russians can break through to the Zaporozhye route from the south.
Southwestern from this area Russia after capture Great Novosilka He tries to become more firmly in this settlement and accumulate forces for the offensive.
Ukrainian units, first of all, 110th separate mechanized brigade, albeit with losses, but have managed to get out of the environment and now actively fire the enemy in the village, stating that he “got into the trap”.
Reuters“Fighting for the city continues. The enemy got into the fire sac. He cannot move further, and at the same time to strengthen his units in the city is forced, ”the OMBR statement said.
The most difficult operational situation is in the cities of Yar and Toretsk. In both settlements, the Russians of Ukrainian defense are “biting”.
As for Toretskayathen as of early February, only heaps, one mine and a thin lane in the northern and northeastern outskirts of the city are kept.
IN Time ravine The RF Armyians try to move simultaneously in the northern and southern outskirts, worsening the situation of the Armed Forces in the central part of the city.
“I don’t think that The Armed Forces will keep it for more than a month, ”the military expert Mikhail Zhirokhov predicts.
Bridges near Kupyansk and estuary
The only section of the front where the Russians have been recorded in the last weeks are the territory north of Kupyansk in Kharkiv and estuary in Donetsk region.
Back in December 2024, the Army of the Russian Federation managed to cross the left to the right, controlled Armed Forces, the bank of the Oskil River and create several small bridges near the villages of the two -year and Novomlinsk. It’s 20 km north Kupyanskaya.
The persistent attempts of Ukrainians to eliminate the bridgeheads did not succeed. As of early February, the Russians are kept and even gradually expanded to the west and south.
BBCDeepstate experts believe that the situation has deteriorated because “the command was not of great importance on the command.”
Military analysts of the group “Information resistance ”, reserve colonel Konstantin Mashovets believes that a crisis begins to develop in this area, and this can lead to serious consequences.
“In Kupyansk, a crisis begins to develop, which may well turn into a repetition of history with Pokrovsk and Kurakhovo, ”he says.
South Kupyansk – near Donetsk Estuary – The Russians also managed to achieve some tactical success. Here they created a bridgehead on the “Ukrainian” bank of the river Zherebets near the village of Ivanivka. Now they attack the neighboring settlement of the well, which is only 11 km from the estuary. The threat also hangs over all the Ukrainian group on the right bank of the stallion near Ternov and Yampolivka.
BBCMikhail Zhirokhov explains that these bridges of the Russian Federation do not pose a great threat. They are located in a complex predominantly wooded area, where there are few roads for armored vehicles. In addition, they are small in size and fully fired by the Armed Forces.
But if the Russians manage to accumulate reserves and equipment, then the situation can be rapidly exacerbated. Ukrainian units can be half -point.
“It can be very dangerous theoretically, ”the analyst says.
On Kurshchynaafter the alleged removal of the North Korean troops, the number of combat clashes also decreased almost in the light. Separate attempts by attacking actions by the Russians try to carry out aside Kherson from the islands on the Dnieper and in the Zaporozhye direction near Orikhovbut unsuccessful.
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